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NYBD Hall of Fame Results, No Doubt Selections, Predictions



By Mike Silva ~ January 9th, 2012. Filed under: Hall of Fame.

The Baseball Hall of Fame will announce its 2012 inductees later today. Over the past month I have encouraged readers and listeners to vote in our own BBWAA-style ballot. Here are the results.

Jeff Bagwell 61.7%
Barry Larkin 57.7%
Tim Raines 55.7%
Edgar Martinez 43.6%
Jack Morris 40.3%
Mark McGwire 29.5%
Alan Trammell 27.5%
Lee Smith 26.8%
Rafael Palmeiro 24.8%
Don Mattingly 22.8%
Bernie Williams 20.1%
Juan Gonzalez 2.0%
Dale Murphy 18.1%
Fred McGriff 17.4%
Larry Walker 14.8%
Jeromy Burnitz 0.7%
Vinny Castilla 0.7%
Brian Jordan 0.7%
Ruben Sierra 0.7%
Eric Young 0.7%
Javy Lopez 0.0%
Bill Mueller 0.0%
Terry Mulholland0.0%
Phil Nevin 0.0%
Brad Radke 0.0%
Tim Salmon 0.0%
Tony Womack 0.0%

Since I started doing this over the last couple of years it’s been difficult for any candidate to collect the 75% benchmark for induction from our fan base. I believe this could be due to the fact there haven’t been any “no doubt” Hall of Famer’s.

Individuals such as Tom Seaver, Nolan Ryan, Cal Ripken, and Ty Cobb, to name a few, had over 95% of the writers support. Both Seaver and Ryan have the highest total in history at 98.8%.

Rickey Henderson fell into that “no doubt” category in 2009; however most other recent inductees – Dawson, Blyleven, Alomar, and Rice- had something on or off the field that gave the voters doubt.

What “no-doubt” Hall of Famers are coming up in the near future? Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens would have been next year, but they likely will take years or never make it because of obvious reasons. I don’t see Mike Piazza (2013), Tom Glavine (2014), or Pedro Martinez (2015) as players that fall into the “no doubt” category. I can see the writers not voting for Piazza because of his back acne, or Glavine because he had to play 22 seasons to collect 305 wins, or Martinez because he only won 219 games. All will make the Hall, but perhaps not for a few years.

The two players that fall into the “no doubt” category are Greg Maddux (2014) and Ken Griffey Jr. (2016), unless someone PED connection surfaces in the near future.

Even then, the writers can be a fickle bunch.  Joe DiMaggio finished with 88.8% and Mickey Mantle 88.2%. Even the great Babe Ruth was left off 5% of the writers ballots.

Voting for the Hall of Fame has become more difficult because of the jump in offense during the 90s, advanced metrics, and longevity of the modern ballplayer. The fans vote here at NYBD proves the BBWAA aren’t alone in being divided.

***

I discussed the Hall of Fame last night on 1240 AM WGBB. Former Atlanta Brave, MVP and Hall of Fame candidates, Dale Murphy, discussed his thoughts on the selection process, his career, and how the writers should evaluate steroid users.

You can download the replay here.

***

Every year I make predictions on how the vote will transpire.

I still believe there is a good chance that no candidate will collect the required 75% for induction this year. Barry Larkin needs 13%, but I have my doubts he will get it all this year as I could see a scenario where he falls just short. Larkin, however, is the only candidate with a legitimate shot.

If Larkin fails to gain selection, the strong field of candidates may push his selection off a number of years. It could make 2012 his high-water mark.

Jeff Bagwell probably will do better than I originally expected. I thought his 41.7% would be a high-water mark because of PED suspicions and the aforementioned strong candidates appearing on the ballot in the near future. After reading how some are warming up to his candidacy I would expect him to be north of 50% this year but still far away from induction.

Tim Raines, Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, and Lee Smith will all hover in the forties. I think Martinez’s candidacy might get serious down the road. If his vote total moves in the right direction that may be a sign that progress is being made with the writers’ mindset on the DH. The other three will have to rely on the Veterans Committee to gain selection.

Will Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire remain on the ballot? I think McGwire will, but Palmeiro will drop below the 5%. The fact that McGwire is active in the game as the Cardinals hitting coach probably helps. I was surprised that Palmeiro made the cut last year.

Juan Gonzalez will drop below the 5% and be eliminated.

Fred McGriff is one candidate that I may start to examine more closely in the future. He collected 17.9% last year and I don’t think that number will change much. He falls just short of 3,000 hits and 500 home runs, but his offensive run from 1988-1994 is impressive. He probably falls into the same category as Dale Murphy- good numbers that aren’t good enough. If their runs were longer than perhaps the conversation would be different.

Locally, Bernie Williams will collect more than 5% to stay on the ballot. I could see both he and Don Mattingly in the teens. I believe Williams will actually get more support than Donnie Baseball and has a shot of getting up into the low-twenties. Mattingly will have to hope for help from the Veterans Committee down the road.

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Mike Silva has hosted sports shows on 107.1 FM Champions ESPN Radio Long Island ,1240 AM WGBB , Blog Talk Radio and live from Mickey Mantle’s Restaurant. He’s also built and maintained two popular social media hubs: New York Baseball Digest and Sports Media Watchdog. Mike has broken national and local stories, as well as been mentioned on the YES Network, SNY.tv, WFAN, Sports Illustrated, ESPN, NY Daily News, New York Magazine, Journal News and the NY Post. Contact Mike professionally at mikesilvamedia.com

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8 Responses to NYBD Hall of Fame Results, No Doubt Selections, Predictions

  1. Russ Cress

    OK, I have to ask….

    Can someone from the 80% of you who did NOT vote for Bernie Williams PLEASE explain to me how Kirby Puckett is a 1st BALLOT HOFer and Bernie doesn’t get a sniff?

    Please explain to me, after looking at both of their careers objectively, how Kirby Puckett is THAT much better than Bernie?

  2. Chuck

    I did not vote for Bernie.

    I also consider Puckett to be one of the worst BBWAA selections ever.

    Hope that answers your question.

  3. Russ Cress

    No it doesn’t.

    The reason why is because he IS in, and you judge future HOFers by the standards of the members of the HOF. Just because you don’t think Puckett belongs in, doesn’t mean that you can just eliminate him from the comparison, because like it or not he’s still in. Putting someone into historical perspective doesn’t work that way.

  4. Chuck

    Right, and just because Puckett is in doesn’t mean you should elect Williams either.

  5. Russ Cress

    Chuck,

    I’m not saying that you SHOULD elect Bernie.

    I’m saying after looking at their respective numbers, what is theory that makes a writer today think Bernie isn’t worthy but Puckett is a 1st ballot guy.

    I want just ONE writer who voted that way to answer the question because you can make an argument that Bernie was the better player, so then where does the gap making Kirby a 1st ballot guy and Bernie a middle of the pack at best guy, come from? Especially when Bernie had a career OPS that was way higher and Bernie was the “better guy” if you vote on morals. There is a major disconnect between the stats/careers of those guys and their vote HOF support and it makes no sense.

    FYI — The reason why there is a case to elect Bernie Williams to the HOF is because his career OPS is higher than 12 different Outfielders, elected to the Hall over the past 40 years. That’s without even getting into the other stuff.

  6. Stu B

    Good call – Larkin was the only player elected.

  7. Piazza

    “I can see the writers not voting for Piazza because of his back acne, or Glavine because he had to play 22 seasons to collect 305 wins, or Martinez because he only won 219 games. All will make the Hall, but perhaps not for a few years.”

    Acne and wins. Hard hitting analysis there, Mike.

    Nolan Ryan had too many walks- not a first ballot. Sandy Koufax didn’t play enough years- not a first ballot. Greg Maddux didn’t have enough walks- not a first ballot.

  8. Mike Silva

    Piazza

    That’s my point – writers make decisions based on that. I was writing that to show how ridiculous it is.

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