Why You Shouldn’t Be Mad at Mets Inactivity


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 4:30 pm by Mike Silva.
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I get the sense Mets fans want to see a move, any move, from Omar Minaya just to feel like they are “part” of the trade deadline experience. In reality, the big fish that made sense for them – Cliff Lee and Dan Haren – weren’t feasible. Yes, they could have matched the Texas/Yankees offers, but not without robbing one part of the roster for another. Perhaps fans have more of a gripe with Dan Haren, but we have no idea what the parameters of a deal, if any, with the Mets would look like.

You have to remember the following:

1. Most executives have felt the demands for contenders have been “ludicrous” throughout most of the process. The reported request of Jesus Montero or Joba Chamberlain for Scott Downs is a great example of the insanity. Jon Heyman said on WFAN today the Mets would be looking at Kirk Nieuwenhuis plus prospects for someone like Downs. I see no reason why other players like Octavio Dotel, Ted Lilly, or Tom Gorzelanny would cost any less.

2. New York teams always have to give up more. This is more the case for the Yankees than the Mets, but don’t think for a second that teams are looking to save Omar Minaya’s job. The fact of the matter remains that you have to pay more than other teams for similar return when you reside in this market.

3. Money, Money, and more money. There were reports that many of the teams that negotiated with Houston for Oswalt had no idea the Drayton McLane was willing to eat $11 million dollars. Again, this goes back to my previous point: do you honestly believe the small market Astros are doing a financial favor for the Mets? Hell might very well freeze over- literally.

4. Is this team for real? After a 2-9 road trip I have my doubts. I also know there is a ceiling on this team’s potential as long as the current manager and coaching staff reside at Citi Field. I have more thoughts about this that I will share this weekend, but I think we all agree the opposing teams gets a check mark in the advantage column when managers are matched up. Let’s see the current group prove they are serious about winning before acquiring help in the process. Do you want to feel good on the deadline only to have another Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano scenario? Worst case scenario you get to say the Mets developed some of the younger players this season. It’s not like the roster is littered with Vance Wilson, Jason Phillips, or Gerald Williams.

Remember, just because the Mets don’t do anything this weekend doesn’t mean all hope is lost. Perhaps they sweep Arizona, then take 4 of 6 from the Phils/Braves and things change. The positions they need help in (fifth starter, reliever, bench bat) can be filled in August. The bigger question should be are the Mets going to be relevant then? That is why the conservative approach is the right move for management.

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Can the Yanks Dream Big With Manny?


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 2:30 pm by Mike Silva.
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The other day the name Manny Ramirez came up in the comments section. This was in response to talk about the Yankees looking for a bat in the form of Adam Dunn. There are conflicting reports about whether they are “in” or “out” on Dunn, but let’s assume the Will Ferrell clone goes to Chicago. Could the Yankees “think big” in August and acquire Manny Ramirez from the Dodgers?

It almost seems like Ramirez career won’t be complete unless he came home to play in the Bronx. Right now there are no indications the Dodgers are sellers, but I suspect that could change in the near future. I predict the minute 2010 is a lost cause there will be an attempt to unload some payroll. Remember, the McCourt’s are going through a nasty socialite divorce. Ramirez is making $20 million this year and even a couple of months of salary relief would have impact.

So far this year Ramirez has only played in 61 games, hitting .317 with 8 homers and 39 RBI. Of course, the Yanks would have to insure he is healthy before a deal, but it doesn’t sound like his injury will keep him out for the year. I would also suspect Manny would feel a whole lot better if playing for a new team. Remember how “rejuvenated” he was in 2008? It was to the tune of 1.232 OPS!

I wouldn’t give up much for Ramirez as I see this more in the salary dump mode. Perhaps the Yankees could throw LA someone like Zach McAllister for their rotation. Could you imagine Ramirez as the DH in the Yanks lineup come playoff time? It’s a move I would consider and would add some juice to the last few weeks of the baseball season here in New York.

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Mets Must Add… Meet the Mets Singalong


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 2:21 pm by Howard Megdal.
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Look, Dan Haren would have been nice. And when other Mets fans were clamoring for Manny Ramirez, I was hoping for Adam Dunn, who still looks entirely available. But with a real absence of difference-makers available at this point, I have only one addition to request at the trading deadline.

Please bring back Meet the Mets to Citi Field.

The Mets have a long and unnecessarily tortured history with stadium singalongs. Back in 2008, due to a popular uprising over the use of Sweet Caroline, the Mets held a vote by the fans to determine what song to play between the top and bottom of the eighth inning.

The easy answer, Meet the Mets, wasn’t in the running. I’m a Believer took the crown.

So it was that Mets fans were kept from the finest song in New York Mets history… by The Monkees.

Again in 2009, a contest was held. This time, Meet the Mets was the runaway winner. And so peace reigned in the land, with fans pledging to have the time of their life. And, at least when the song was played, they did.

And here in 2010, during a season which has featured many noble attempts to add Mets history to the Citi Field experience, Meet the Mets has been missing. Oh, don’t get me wrong- the instrumental version as they take the field is fantastic.

But we want to sing.

Tomorrow, I bring my baby daughter to her first Mets game. She’ll get to see some of the heroes I grew up cheering for get inducted into the Hall of Fame. She’ll see Jose Reyes and David Wright for the first time. And maybe, in Jon Niese, she’ll see a pitching mainstay set to stay in Flushing for years to come.

The continuity that every longtime baseball fan experiences, each time a new generation enters the fold, may never be stronger for the thousands of Mets fans.

So I implore you, New York Mets, tomorrow, and every home game from this day forward: give us Meet the Mets. (The original, not the eighties “hotdogsgreengrassallatShea” version.)

You have access to arguably the greatest baseball song ever written (about the Mets, anyway), your fans love it, you play tons of music anyway. Please. Let us teach it to our children, so they can teach it to their children-and so all of us can be a little happier every time we visit Citi Field.

That’s a win-now deadline addition.

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The Unbearable Burden of Carlos Beltran


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 10:36 am by Howard Megdal.
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I had the misfortune of having to watch the soft, listless Carlos Beltran on Thursday afternoon. Beltran, who many Mets fans have identified as a player who doesn’t care about his team, had begged his way into the lineup after playing 13 innings the night before on an arthritic knee. What a selfish player!

It was typical Beltran. Never mind that he’s playing on an arthritic knee, the Mets needed the game, Jason Bay wasn’t available, so Beltran wanted to be out there.

It reminded me of the key part he played in the 2007 collapse, when he caused the Mets to fall a game short of the playoffs by posting an .882 OPS and eight home runs in the month of September, all on a pair of knees that required surgery after the season.

And naturally, the can’t-hit-in-the-clutch Beltran pulled the same tired act in September 2008, hitting a paltry .344/.440/.645 for the month with six home runs.

So after his home run on Wednesday night, the Beltran some fans are desperate to jettison hit a ball to the deepest part of Citi Field on Thursday afternoon, seeing it caught just in front of the 415 marker. In his third at-bat, with a runner on third, Beltran, not talking to reporters at the time, hit the ball the opposite way to left field. His RBI single was just more evidence that his long, undistinguished Met career is finished.

After all, Beltran had hit .188 in his first 36 at-bats after returning from nearly a year off. And if we learned anything from Jose Reyes, it is that if a player fails to immediately hit upon his return to major league action, he never will.

My foremost hope is that Beltran stays healthy, so I can continue complaining about his Beltran-like actions for the remainder of his contract.

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Is it Time to Change the Trade Deadline?


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 10:00 am by Mike Silva.
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Imagine of the trade deadline was the original June 15th? Amazing that Tom Seaver was dealt “at the deadline,” where today that date wouldn’t even signal the end of the NBA Finals. Baseball recognized that date needed to change and made it the 31st of July. Now that we are in the Wild Card era, perhaps it’s time for the powers that be to recognize a need for another change.

The main issue I have with the current deadline is how teams who are not “out of it,” but really can’t feel comfortable being “in it” and are put in a tight spot. It’s hard to justify the Mets paying a top prospect for Scott Downs since a bad weekend against Arizona might make that trade moot. On the flip side, teams that are looking to sell (like Toronto) have a harder time doing so because of the “wait and see approach” by pseudo contenders. Let’s not forget injuries can and do happen after the 31st. The human body doesn’t take into account the MLB waiver process. Why make it harder for a contender to upgrade the roster just because bad luck afflicted them on the wrong day?

Perhaps it doesn’t matter since I believe many teams will be able to put players through the waiver wire. Does anyone honestly believe a Chad Qualls or Rich Harden will be blocked? I bet the Dodgers put Manny Ramirez through without a problem. The days of the Yankees blocking a Jose Canseco to keep him away from the Red Sox are over. Imagine a team claiming Ramirez to keep him away from a contender? I could see LA saying “thank you very much and enjoy.” That team would then be responsible for paying the remaining $7 million or so owed to “Manny” the rest of the season. Why put the league through this charade?

I propose the real trade deadline becomes August 31st, the same day rosters need to be finalized for the postseason. I could even split the difference and make it August 15th, since the Wild Card race will be vetted out by that time. It gives teams a chance to evaluate their rosters and prevents an early white flag. I remember the Phillies in 2006 trading Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle at the deadline. They got hot in August and September and nearly made the playoffs. Some argue that subtracting Abreu was part of that surge, but I wonder if Pat Gillick felt the team could compete for a playoff spot he would have made that same deal.

If MLB could get rid of the dreaded coin flip for home field advantage they could make changes to the trade deadline. Maybe it will be discussed when Bud Selig is done bothering teams for paying talented college kids over slot. In all seriousness, it should at least be on their radar. Since baseball moves at the speed of government, maybe this will be addressed in the next five years

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Mets Already Have Roy Oswalt


This entry was posted on July 30th, 2010 @ 6:49 am by Mike Silva.
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What if I told you a player the Mets acquired midseason would have a 7-4 record and a 2.32 ERA? Would you consider that a good “in season” acquisition? One of the biggest midseason acquisitions the Mets ever made was acquiring Frank Viola – coming off a Cy Young season – from the Minnesota Twins. Frank V. was a pedestrian 5-5 with a 3.97 ERA in a season the Mets lost the division by six games.

I know Mets fans are wringing their hands about how everyone seems to be acquiring talent, but midseason acquisitions don’t always pay dividends. Very few achieve what Doyle Alexander (9-0, 1.53) did with the 1987 Tigers. In that case it only cost Detroit John Smoltz’s career. Yes, the Phillies got better by acquiring Roy Oswalt, but all they did was get their rotation to the same level as the Mets (the gap between the two teams didn’t exist there). As a matter of fact, the Mets already have their Roy Oswalt and his name is R.A Dickey.

Yes, Dickey doesn’t have the resume of Oswalt. However, outside of the name, both pitchers have been extremely comparable this year:

R.A. Dickey: 7-4 record, 2.32 ERA

Roy Oswalt: 6-12, 3.42 ERA

In a lot of ways Dickey has been better. He doesn’t have an overinflated BABIP (.296), the K rate is a solid 6 per nine, as well as a more than respectable FIP of 3.25. Oswalt in comparison has a bit lower BABIP (.283), strikes out slightly more (8.4 per nine), and a comparable 3.40 FIP. There really is no indication that either pitcher is extremely lucky, even for someone like Dickey who pitches to slightly more contact than Oswalt. Going into yesterdays action Dickey was actually outperforming Oswalt significantly if you take ERA+ into consideration (158 to 120). Also, Dickey has been great at Citi Field (ERA under 2.00), but his 2.81 ERA on the road is more than respectable.

The Mets could have used Cliff Lee or Dan Haren, but Roy Oswalt would have probably cost them Jonathan Niese and a couple of prospects. No thanks, considering you already have a facsimile in the rotation. Instead, acquiring a bullpen arm, bench bat, or fifth starter (see Tom Gorzelanny if on the cheap) would be more effective. Of course, all those things seem to be expensive, but let’s see what August brings. Easy to hold out now, but when Alex Anthopoulos is staring at draft picks for Scott Downs, perhaps he blinks and comes back to earth with his demands.

You shouldn’t be ready to give R.A Dickey a 3 year contract, but he seems to have figured something out at age 35. Don’t think a knuckleballer can be an elite pitcher? Look at Phil Niekro’s stats from 1968 to about 1979. Realistically the Mets may have found a #3 starter for the next few years, but right now he is pitching like the 1A ace the Phillies acquired in Roy Oswalt. Don’t be surprised they shake out very similar statistically over the next couple of years.

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Matsui on Yanks Radar?


This entry was posted on July 29th, 2010 @ 5:59 pm by Mike Silva.
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Brandon Tierney of ESPN Radio reported on the “Wheelhouse” tonight that Anaheim may be ready to dump some of their veterans. He believes the Yankees might be able to reacquire Hideki Matsui at the trade deadline.

With all the talk of Adam Dunn, Matsui might be a more reasonable acquisition to beef up the offense. Funny how the Yanks passed on Matsui and opted for the brittle Nick Johnson and may have to reacquire him to fill the same DH spot he left.

Matsui would make more sense than Dunn for two reasons: 1) prospects and 2) you and still use the DH spot to rotate veterans like Posada, A-Rod, and Jeter.

I am sure the Yankees could get Matsui for cheap since this would be more of a salary dump than a trade. Matsui was signed a 1 year $6 million dollar deal this winter. What I find odd about Tierney’s comment is that Anaheim acquired Dan Haren on Sunday and nearly had Derrek Lee from the Cubs. Why the change of heart? Maybe they realize Texas is too good to overcome an 8.5 game deficit at this point in the season.

On the season Matsui is hitting .251 with 14 homers and 55 RBI. He surely will be helped by a return to the short porches of Yankee Stadium.

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Brian Bannister on Statistics and Second Base


This entry was posted on July 29th, 2010 @ 11:00 am by Mike Silva.
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You always think sons want to follow in their father’s footsteps, but in the case of Brian Bannister that would be partially correct.

Ted Berg of SNY caught up with the former Met and Royals RHP over the weekend at Yankee Stadium. When I saw Ted at Citi Field last night I told him it was an outstanding interview as Bannister discussed how he wanted to play second base, feels he has a future in coaching, and broached advanced statistics. He might be the only player that actually knows what FIP and xFIP are.

In case you don’t know, Brian’s father Floyd was a pitcher during the eighties for a bunch of teams, mainly the White Sox and Mariners. He was the first overall pick of the 1976 draft and, unlike his son, was a power pitcher leading the AL in strikeouts in 1982. Brian wanted to play second base, but knew his best shot at the big leagues as on the mound. He was a good hitter during his brief stint with the Mets and has a career .276 batting average.

The real interesting part of the conversation was advanced statistics, specifically his thoughts on FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). For those that aren’t aware of what that is, basically it’s another version of ERA, but just takes into account what a pitcher controls (walks, strikeouts, HBP, homers). Depending on whether your FIP is higher/lower than ERA you can tell whether you have a “lucky” or “unlucky” season.

Bannister believes you can use advanced stats for more than fantasy baseball and the “value equation.” He believes it could be a teaching tool. The example given was how FIP shows him whether he is getting better as a pitcher. He admits that he isn’t as good as 2007 (12-9, 3.87 ERA), because FIP states he is a back end of the rotation pitcher with average stuff (4.77 FIP). As Bannister points out, when you pitch to contact you don’t have control on the final out. That is where the whole BABIP conversation comes into play. Another interesting point he made was how left handed contact pitchers with a good pickoff move might be more successful (see Mark Buehrle).

Bannister brings up a bunch of great point. He certainly will be an asset in a team’s front office someday. If you are going to bring in someone with the ability to understand advanced metrics it really should be those who have some experience on the ball field. Unlike most advanced writers, it appears Bannister understands how metrics are a tool, not an ideology. They understand the player drives the numbers, not the other way around. As for pitching to contact, I agree with Bannister, you can only do it for periods at a time, but the great pitchers know how to make those periods of success longer. I am not pitching coach but I always have subscribed to working fast, good mechanics, and location. That should give you the best chance of success even with a high contact rate.

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Weighing in (Again) on Solutions to Joba Chamberlain


This entry was posted on July 29th, 2010 @ 9:00 am by Mike Silva.
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Steve S from The Yankee U questioned the blogosphere about what they believe the Yankees should do with Joba Chamberlain. Here is what yours truly had to say:

I would love to trade Joba since I think he will never realize his potential. Reality is such that his value is at an all time low. At this point he couldn’t be the centerpiece of any type of quality package. The only option is to send him  down to Scranton – where he should have spent all of last season- and have him work on two things 1) ability to compose himself on the mound and most important 2) repeat his mechanics on a consistent basis. Once he does that the sky is the limit. The other night the MLB Network was showing Mariano Rivera working with Joba on his delivery before the game. If he can’t learn from the greatest closer of all time I am not sure Scott Aldred is going to make a difference. Regardless, it’s their only hope to save him.

The majority of the panel believes they should either send him down or work him through his problems in low leverage situations. Everyone seems to be in agreement that trading him would be foolish since he is at his all time lowest value. NYBD contributor Frank Russo believes, based on his information, that Arizona wasn’t all that sold on Joba as part of the proposed Dan Haren package. That’s not why a deal wasn’t made, but interesting how low his stock has fallen.

One difference of opinion came from Craig Calcaterra of NBC Sports Hardball Talk. He spoke about Joba’s high BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) as just a component of him being “unlucky” and the Yanks shouldn’t do anything. Calcaterra is correct, sort of, since he does tend to get dinked around in outings. The problem is he compounds those situations with his shortcomings. Friday night against Kansas City at the Stadium is a perfect example. A couple of infield hits and a walk later the bases are loaded. Joba started to slow his pace as soon as he got into trouble and looked uncomfortable the entire inning. Even though he got out of it unscathed, it was one of the most painful innings to watch all season. Point being his lack of composure and poor mechanics are leading to him falling behind the count and throwing more hittable pitches, thus the high BABIP (.393). I tend to believe this is more prevalent when things go against him in a ballgame (like cheap hits). Of course, that isn’t the case for all pitchers, but anyone who watches Joba would agree his struggles are not just luck induced as Calcaterra believes. That is a perfect case of letting the stats drive the player instead of seeing how the player is creating his numbers.

I sound like a broken record, but 2007 ruined Joba (although it got the Yankees a playoff berth) and he should have spent a good chunk of 2009 in Scranton. Perhaps the story would be different today. Hopefully the Yankees learned a valuable lesson and don’t repeat it with pitchers like David Phelps, Ivan Nova, and Hector Noesi.

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Flores Begins his Move Towards Citi Field


This entry was posted on July 29th, 2010 @ 7:44 am by Jed Weisberger.
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Obviously he won’t be arriving in Queens next week, but the Mets prospect who has been a bit overlooked this season is beginning to make major progress.

While Jenrry Mejia was debated, Reese Havens sidelined and Nick Evans left to bide his time in Binghamton (he was finally recalled recently), shortstop Wilmer Flores is flourishing.

He’s still only 19, but he’s showing the Class A Advanced Florida State League is not much of a challenge, hitting .345 (49-for-142) with 20 RBIs in 33 games with St. Lucie. The native of Valencia, Venezuela has committed eight errors ion 32 starts at shortstop.

There have been times when Flores’ game, for one reason or another, has been criticized. You know what? I give the kid a pass on all of that because he was placed in a ridiculous situation.

The Mets’ way under the former farm-system regime was to rush young prospects like Flores, who took his first swing in Class-A South Atlantic League at 17 after  debuting at Kingsport of the Appalachian League at 16.

He also was the only Mets prospect ever to play at Brooklyn at age 17.

The youngster held his own at both Kingsport, where he hit .310 (76-for-245) and Brooklyn, where he batted .267 (8-for-30) in just eight games, but playing in the Sally League as an 18-year-old for the most part in 2009 was unfair to him.

For the first few years of his career, this infielder with a lot of potential power, signed by scouts Robert Alfonzo and Ismael Cruz with a $750,000 bonus, was the youngest player in his respective league.

Finally, after hitting .264 (129-for-488) at savannah last season, Flores returned there and batted .278 (77-for-277). Some said he appeared bored at times. I did not see him play this season, so I can’t say.

However, the verdict was he needed a change of scenery, and the Mets gave the 2009 Futures Game participant, who had last been an All-Star in the Appalachian League,  a mid-season promotion  to St. Lucie.

Reports indicate the 6-foot-3, 175-pound Flores is playing the best ball of his career and, with an OPS of .821 and rising, is performing against tougher pitching.

Maybe it’s good that everyone talked about Mejia and the rest of that group this season and let Flores, as blue-chip a prospect as the Mets have in their system, get his game together.

Flores has the type of bat that potentially could hit for power to all fields, a good arm and the type of soft hands needed. He has, like Pittsburgh rookie outfielder Jose Tabata, a thick lower body and is a below-average runner.

He is getting stronger, as indicated by his Florida State League performance and is staying healthy. With a balky quad sidelining Havens for much of the season, Flores, who also could play second and third, is putting himself into the picture.

If Flores finishes the Florida State League season strong, there is little reason he can’t open 2011 at Double-A Binghamton.

METS FARM SYSTEM REVIEW (As of Wednesday July 28)

BUFFALO (51-49; Triple-A) – With Mike Hessman even getting a deserved call-up, this club no longer looks like a playoff contender. Outfielder-DH Lucas Duda is batting .313 (42-for-134) with 12 homers in 36 games.  Lefty Pat Misch (9-4, 3.44) is likely the lone other Bisons player worthy of a call-up.

BINGHAMTON (53-51); Double-A) – With 38 games left in the Eastern League season, it’s doubtful the B-Mets could snare a playoff berth from Trenton or New Hampshire.  Manager Tim Teufel’s team is decimated by injuries, with outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis having an All-Star season at .294 (108-for-367) with 16 homers and 58 RBIs.

ST. LUCIE (50-50; Single-A) – Flores aside, the work of lefty Robert Carson (7-5, 4.17) and righty Eric Beaulac (5-2, 3.48) has been commendable.

SAVANNAH (55-47; Single-A) – The SAL South first-half champions still have still have some punch. Infielder Jefry Marte, batting .354 (29-for-82) in July is playing his best baseball since signing with the Mets and is batting .264 (87-for-329) with six homers and 44 RBIs overall.

BROOKLYN (25-13; Single-A) – The Cyclones had an excellent first half in the NY-P, led by outfielder Darrell Ceciliani, who is batting a league-leading .389 (58-for-149).  Lefty Angel Cuan is 4-0, 1.50 with a strikeout/walk ratio of 31-9.

KINGSPORT (17-19; Rookie) – Shortstop Justin Schafer is batting a solid .324 (35-for-108).  Lefty reliever T.J. Chism is 3-0, 0.79 in 12 appearances.

GCL METS (15-16; Rookie) – Outfielder Julio Concepcion is batting .311 (33-for-106).

DSL METS 1 (27-19; Rookie) – Outfielder Eudy Pina is batting .337 (55-for-163) with 32 RBIs.

DSL METS 2 (28-21; Rookie) – Righty reliever Marcos Gonzalez is 2-0, 1.13 with two saves.

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Wally Backman’s Message to the Naysayers


This entry was posted on July 29th, 2010 @ 7:00 am by Mike Silva.
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Via Bob Klapisch’s column yesterday:

“All I’m looking for is an opportunity – give me a team that can compete and I’ll make them better. I know what I can do. I know what I do on the field is right. You can question me on anything, on any move I make, and I’ll have a stat that shows I’m right.”

I have talked endlessly why Backman should be the manager. If you need to hear from him firsthand about why he is the perfect guy to replace Jerry Manuel (at the end of the year) just read the entire column. One other nugget that should make Mets fans happy:

“You know, at this (Class-A) level, it’s supposed to be about player development, but to me, development is winning,” Backman said. “I’m teaching my players how to get into the habit of winning. Because that’s what it is. Once you get used to it, you never want to stop.”

That’s exactly the type of culture that is missing at Citi Field.

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K-Rod’s Season Against Left Handed Batters


This entry was posted on July 28th, 2010 @ 1:00 pm by Mike Silva.
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If you haven’t read Will Woods article over at Baseball Prospectus, stop what you’re doing here, click on the link, and return after you’re done. It’s a rare piece in the modern baseball writing community that focuses on the psychology of the game instead of raw data. A true common sense piece.

Woods talks about the predictability of Francisco Rodriguez, especially when he doesn’t have his fastball. There have been days that K-Rod tops out at 90 mph, forcing him to nibble with his command and overuse his curveball and changeup. I believe Woods’s piece summarize K-Rod’s season in those two innings on that Sunday afternoon in San Francisco. Smart hitters can capitalize, subpar hitters fail to make the adjustment and wave at his off speed offerings like Bugs Bunny. Fortunately for the Mets, Eli Whiteside played Bugs Bunny that day.

During last night’s ninth inning something jumped out at me: K-Rod’s lefty/righty splits. I don’t know why last night, versus dozens of other outings, his BAA vs. lefties came to my attention. This probably has been discussed somewhere else, but on the season left handed batters are hitting .282 with a .768 OPS. This is well above his career norm where lefties hit .210 with a .616 OPS.

Some will shout “small sample size,” perhaps K-Rod just has been a victim of specific situations, but he has faced lefties 87 times versus 117 right handed hitters. It’s not all that small when you think about it. What I am getting at is this scary thought: what if K-Rod is trending towards splits that scream situational righty? We complain about how the Mets bullpen has too many situational pitchers. Bobby Parnell, Pedro Feliciano, Raul Valdes, and Elmer Dessens all have extreme splits versus one side of the plate. Ironically, Valdes, a LHP, is better against right handers – a whole other story.

When Trevor Hoffman started to struggle during his last days in San Diego it was his splits against lefties that became extreme. Perhaps K-Rod’s lack of confidence in the fastball is more against lefties than in general. The good news is this could be an anomaly. Last year he was better against left handers (.185 BAA) overall. Only K-Rod knows for sure. The problem the Mets could have is their sitting on an expensive situational pitcher who they are asking to close out ballgames. That is a scary thought.

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How the Yankees Could Obtain Jayson Werth


This entry was posted on July 28th, 2010 @ 11:00 am by Mike Silva.
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You all know I am not enamored with Curtis Granderson. Despite three big homers this week, Granderson has been very pedestrian on offense, can’t hit left handed pitching, and nothing exciting defensively. Brett Gardner is clearly the best centerfielder in the Bronx.

One of the players the Yankees have inquired on this year is Jayson Werth. There has been ton of speculation about the Phillies dealing Werth in a package for Roy Oswalt. I think Oswalt goes nowhere this week so why couldn’t both teams get together and swap Curtis Granderson for Werth?

Werth fits so much better in the Yankees lineup. He is a right handed, hits for power, gets on base, and solid defensively. Enter his walk year I have little doubt the Phils will let him go and replace him in right with top prospect Domonic Brown. Granderson would feast on the short Citizen’s Bank Park dimensions. You also would shore up the outfield defense by moving Shane Victorino to left and reducing the reliance on the aging Raul Ibanez. Granderson is also signed to a club friendly deal (18.25 the next two years with a $2 million dollar buyout in 2013).

This, of course, is just my wild idea. There is no indication that either team would consider such a trade. Who knows, it makes so much sense that perhaps the Yankees and Phillies read this and start talking. As long as I get a commission from the deal they are free to steal shamelessly.

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A Dream Tandem at Citi Field


This entry was posted on July 28th, 2010 @ 9:00 am by Mike Silva.
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When I put out a poll to take the temperature of the fans with respect to who they want to see manage the Mets it was a dead heat with Backman edging out Valentine 42 to 38 percent (as of this writing). In other words 80% of the fan base is divided over two men. It got me to thinking about this dream scenario: Bobby Valentine as the General Manager and Wally Backman in the dugout.

I know, way too radical for Mets ownership to deal with. On the logical side we are giving Valentine a position he’s never handled. For as brilliant a baseball mind Valentine can be his personality leaves must to be desired. To say he was disliked during his Mets tenure is an understatement. Running a ballclub requires an individual to build relationships with those in the industry. That has much to do with completing transactions as anything. In many ways it’s a partial sales job. Regardless, it’s a position that Valentine is made for with his control freak persona. He finally could build a team his way instead of cooking with someone else’s recipe. I could see him growing into the role and being successful, just like his time in the dugout.

As for Backman I have been over reasons why he should be the field manager Ad nauseam. If you’re concerned about him getting along with Bobby Valentine you shouldn’t be. I remember asking him a few years ago if he would mind a GM in the locker room. Wally basically said it’s a much the GM’s team as his and they have every right to spend time around the players. That tells me he’s comfortable with his abilities and checks his ego at the door. Anyone working with Valentine would have to possess such a trait.

I would call this the high risk/high reward plan for the New York Mets. A team that hasn’t won a title in 24 years and is still smarting from the worst collapse in baseball history should be taking chances. If the fear is fan backlash they should put them aside. Mets fans love Bobby Valentine and Wally Backman. I could see them support this idea and give it a chance to work. Of course, this is a “dream scenario” which means it almost certainly wouldn’t happen.

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If No Soria, Yanks Should Turn to Downs


This entry was posted on July 28th, 2010 @ 6:31 am by Mike Silva.
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Now that Joakim Soria seems to be out of the Yankees price range some of the names that appear to be a fit are Octavio Dotel and the Toronto trio of Scott Downs, Kevin Gregg, and Jason Frasor. The only one of that group that excites me is Downs, who is unfairly lumped in with other lefty specialist.

Downs has been one of the top AL relievers the last four years putting up an ERA+ of 189 during that time. He gets lefties and righties out equally, plus has some experiencing closing ballgames. There is no reason that Downs couldn’t close for a number of teams throughout baseball. This is exactly the type of pitcher the Yankees could use. A solid eighth inning arm that is trustworthy enough to hand over save situations if Rivera is unavailable.

The problem with any deal is the cost. As much as I love Downs it’s not out of the question he would cost two pitching prospects (think Zach McAllister and Ivan Nova). Remember, the Yankees are always required to pay more than other teams so that must be factored in. Do you eschew the value equation and pay the freight? With the way the bullpen is constructed now I am not sure there is even a choice.

The Yankees can navigate the regular season mixing and matching Joba, Robertson, Logan, and others as the bridge to Mariano. When it comes to the postseason they better have the luxury of putting Phil Hughes out there because that mix doesn’t give me a good feeling against the likes of Texas, Tampa, or Chicago in October.

I was hoping that a deal for Soria could be worked out. Unfortunately the cost has far exceeded reasonable limits. The stunted development of Joba Chamberlain continues to be problematic for the Yankees. They were able to overcome it in 2009, but it remains to be seen this year.

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