Let’s not belabor the matter. The Mets, 66-68 entering Wednesday night’s game in Atlanta, are done.

Many good men tried. Many good men failed. Not just on the field, but in the front office as well.

Omar Minaya is a great guy, but certainly less than that as general manager.  He’s good at discovering talent. Make that his responsibility.

Jerry Manuel is a great guy, but certainly less than that as a manager. He’s good at scouting. Make that his responsibility.

With whom do you replace these two? Wally Backman is the right choice as manager. Kevin Towers would be superb as general manager.

Let’s talk about Backman first. I’ve spent time watching him with the Brooklyn Cyclones this summer. His team is easily the best in the New York-Penn League with a 48-23 record, having already clinched the McNamara Division title.

OK, so Backman is winning with a Short-Season Class-A team.  Brooklyn’s record is just part of this. I want him because of how he relates to his players.

We’ll focus on outfielder Darrell Ceciliani, a 20-year-old having a marvelous season in the NYPL. He’s hitting a league-leading .347 (93-for-268) with 21 stolen bases. His outfield play has improved as the season has matured.

Unless you follow Brooklyn, you don’t know Ceciliani.  I seriously see him as a future Mets leadoff  or second-place hitter.  What does he think of Backman.

“Wally has been a major help to me,’’ said Ceciliani, an NYPL All-Star.  “He works with you, brings out your strengths and puts you in situations where you can succeed.’’

Ceciliani, partially bothered by a hand injury, scuffled mightily at Kingsport (Tenn.) of the Appalachian League in 2009, hitting just .234 (37-for-158) in 42 games.  This year, healthy and under Backman’s tutelage, he’s turned it around.

“Give Darrell the credit for making himself so much better,’’ said Backman.

When was the last time you heard a Mets player credit a manager like that? When was the last time a manager in turn credited a player?  Don’t dismiss this because we’re talking about the NYPL here. This is what builds winning baseball.

Backman has conquered a lot just to get to Brooklyn.  He’s effective. He knows how to win. He’s great with young players. He’s an excellent in-game strategist.  He’ll bring excitement to the Mets.

Do the smart thing, Fred and Jeff. Bring him to Queens. Backman will turn your club around faster than anyone else.

Now we’ll discuss Towers, who helped direct San Diego to four division titles and the 1998 World Series during his 1995-2009 tenure. He has been working as a special assignment scout with the Yankees this season.

He has a keen eye for talent.  Working with the other good people in the Mets’ development operation, he would right the ship, make some key trades (the Mets actually have some chips) and put the house in order.

Of the candidates out there , Towers, to me, is easily the best fit for the Mets.

In reading Tyler Kepner’s piece it’s amazing that Robinson Cano ever made it to the Bronx. Back in 2004, Cano was one of the choices the Texas Rangers could have selected as the Player to Be Named Later in the Alex Rodriguez/Alfonso Soriano deal. Instead of Cano, Texas GM John Hart selected Joaquin Arias because of his defensive capabilities. Sounds like a terrible move, but if you go back to Baseball America’s Top 10 Yankees Prospects for 2004 Arias was #4, while Cano topped out at #6. The Diamondbacks and Royals both passed on Cano in potential deals for Carlos Beltran and Randy Johnson, so Hart was not alone in his skepticism.

It’s hard to argue the impact of Alex Rodriguez over this tenure. For all the off the field controversy, A-Rod has a 149 OPS+, better than his early days in Seattle. The Yankees inevitably would have found a free agent replacement, but now would be staring at an expensive and declining Rodriguez while Cano hits his peak. Meanwhile, Arias was just given away by Texas for Jeff Francoeur after six years in the organization. It appears his ceiling is more along the lines of an Alex Cora or Wilson Valdez, certainly not worth the price of a Hall of Fame shortstop. Of course, Texas did get Alfonso Soriano in the deal, but wound up sending him to Washington for Armando Galarraga, Terrmel Sledge, and Brad Wilkerson. Not exactly a Hall of Fame trio.

Amazing the six degrees of separation there is in baseball, and how the course of history can change with just one decision.

Kevin Rozell of “Zell’s Pinstriped Blog” has video of a bunch of classic Yankees brawls. This post is appropriate after what happened in Florida between the Nationals Nyjer Morgan and Marlins pitcher Chris Volstad. See one between Darryl Strawberry and Armando Benitez below. To check out more go to Kevin’s site.

The Capital One Financial Corporation announced today the launch of the Capital One Cup, a prestigious new program rewarding NCAA Division I athletic programs for their cumulative on-field performance across multiple men’s and women’s sports. The Capital One Cup will be served by an advisory board of prominent former NCAA student-athletes, including former Mets and Yankees third baseman Robin Ventura.

Everyone remembers the Grand Slam Single in the 1999 NLCS, but Ventura was a standout athlete at Oklahoma State, winning the 1988 College Spikes Award given to the most outstanding athlete. As a freshman in 1986 he led the nation in runs, RBI, and total bases. The following year he had a NCAA record 58 game hitting streak. Ventura was elected into the College Baseball Hall of Fame in 1986.

Fans will be able to follow their favorite university to see how they stand at www.capitalonecup.com. Additionally, starting this fall, ESPN will introduce the Capital One Cup Impact Performance of the Week on its college sports telecasts, allowing fans to vote for the plays they think will have the biggest impact on the race for the Capital One Cup.

Next year’s closer acquisition should clearly be… no one.

Let’s take a look at the needs of the 2011 Mets. They need to acquire a reasonable choice to start at second base. Sure, they can hope Daniel Murphy can be that player, and muscle his way into the starting lineup, but the team can’t count on that.

The team needs to be certain it has three starting outfielders. Angel Pagan is someone to rely on. Carlos Beltran, given his performance and injury, and Jason Bay, given his performance and injury, will each need a fallback plan. (This is predicated on the idea that the Mets won’t be able to trade either contract.) Maybe they can fill these positions internally with Lucas Duda, Nick Evans, and the three weeks Fernando Martinez is healthy next year. Incredibly, the Mets wasted months of at-bats those three could have received on Jeff Francoeur.

But no matter; these are needs. These are positions that the team’s current candidates to fill are either candidates for a bounce back season, or rookies.

Contrast that with the back end of the bullpen, assuming Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t return. Bobby Parnell, in his time with the Mets, has a walk rate of 1.9/9 and a K rate of 9.2/9 to go with his 2.86 ERA. Hisanori Takahashi, in his bullpen work, has a walk rate of 3.7/9 and a K rate of 10.0/9 to go with his 2.40 ERA.

Both of these are solid comparatively to most MLB closers. And they positively blow away the free agent alternatives this winter.

As to the objection- but Parnell hasn’t done the job yet!- all I can say is, Jerry Manuel’s refusal to let him try almost seems like a spiteful move toward a team, the 2011 Mets, that he is highly unlikely to be managing.

Over the next month, Parnell needs to get more opportunities to close. The team could easily get by with Parnell and Takahashi as two-headed closer. If you think otherwise, consult the 1986 Mets.

And with a finite amount of money to spend, the Mets should concentrate instead on their other needs.

Those who follow the Yankees can’t help but remember the Paul O’Neill/Don Mattingly lineup debate from 1994 when looking at the plight of Derek Jeter. That year O’Neill led the American League in batting, while an aging Don Mattingly continued his steep decline from stardom that eventually led to his retirement in 1995. That year the debate was when Buck Showalter would remove Donnie Baseball from the number three hole in the lineup, and replace him with Paul O’Neill. Although the stats made this move a “no brainer,” a prideful Mattingly never made lineup changes easy in the past. When Bucky Dent moved him to the two hole, he decided to make a statement by bunting his first time up. However, it was apparent to even Mattingly in that summer of 94′ that O’ Neill was the focal cog of the offense.

Fast forward to today, and look at Derek Jeter. Like Mattingly, the Captain has seen his skills erode to the point where he is a below league average hitter for the first time in his career. His OBP is a paltry .333, putting him only ahead of Curtis Granderson in a normal Yankees lineup. This has forced Joe Girardi to move Brett Gardner to the leadoff hole, and drop Jeter to #2. A small change that surely won’t cause a ripple, but in reality Jeter should be at the bottom of the lineup, not setting the table. Just a few weeks ago Matt Imbrogno of TYU suggested hitting Jeter eighth. It’s a point which I agree, but realize would cause such a stir the ends wouldn’t justify the means. The Yankees don’t need to rock the boat during this critical time of the season.

In an ideal world Jeter would recognize what is best for the team, and give Girardi the green light to make such changes. I am not asking him to go public with this, but rather be the first to throw the olive branch. Mattingly said the right things publicly in 1994 with his demotion, and Jeter would probably do the same. If he initiates such a move it would make the inevitable that much easier. It would be the right thing to do, and what prove what a true Captain he really is.

Peter Gammons gave Mets fans a rare piece of good news yesterday when he said on WFAN “he believes Bobby Valentine will be the next Mets manager.” In many ways this is a perfect move since this team needs a face, and Valentine would immediately become the biggest personality in the room. Of course, that might be more of an indictment on the roster versus a compliment to Valentine, but there is no denying Bobby V’s track record. Back in February I even said Valentine would be perfect for this group because they need a face and identity. I still believe that today, and although I wouldn’t complain about a Valentine sequel, I wonder if that sets up a situation of unmanageable expectations.

As the season has progressed I believe it has become more important for the organization to move forward. If Valentine were hired it would immediately conjure up images of 2000, and make anything less than a carbon copy of the late nineties unacceptable. How ironic that many wanted Valentine fired at various points of the 1999 season. He was on the hot seat that June when the coaches were fired at Yankee Stadium, and then again in late September as the Mets collapsed down the stretch. You could argue that he loses his job if the Mets don’t sweep the Pirates with a little help from Milwaukee that last weekend of the season. The course of Mets, and Valentine’s, history changed over a three day weekend in September.

That isn’t to say Valentine wouldn’t be a great choice. He is a smart baseball man, knows how to do more with less, would command respect, and bring some discipline to the clubhouse. The problems on the roster would be weeded out very quickly under Valentine. On the flip side, think about what would happen if the Mets struggle? Valentine was fortunate that he realized quick success during his first full season in 1997. When things go sour Valentine can be mired in controversy, as we saw towards the end of his tenure in 2002. The bottom line is a Valentine hire is a smart move, but no guarantee. As a matter of fact, it comes with just as many risks as Wally Backman since there will be a huge financial component with an expensive contract.

I still think Backman is the right move for the organization. You can’t argue a Valentine hire, but the pressure to succeed quickly will be intense. Remember, sequels don’t always go well, and the Mets can’t afford another disaster after what has transpired the last four seasons.

Jenrry Mejia continues to be a top story in this frustrating season. We debated long and hard his utilization/promotion early in the year, and just last week I discussed how this all might end well for Mejia. This was after back to back 7 shutout innings for the B-Mets. Now after last night’s sparking 8 inning/1 run performance could the next stop be Wrigley Field and the Cubs? It makes sense, unless the Mets want to keep him in Buffalo to help with their playoff chase.

Even more impressive about his performance was pitching into the eighth inning, throwing 103 pitches, 66 for strikes, and striking out 9. Yes, the Syracuse Chiefs aren’t a formidable lineup, but this is a long way from throwing mop up innings in a route against the Orioles in June.

With all due respect to the Bisons and their fans, Mejia needs to be due north ASAP. Pat Misch is a league average replacement, we know what he can do, we need to see as much of Mejia against big league hitters as possible. This could help shape the 2011 Mets rotation in an offseason that will require “creativity” with the roster due to big contracts.

The Mets have been fortunate their error in judgment with Mejia hasn’t cost them. Now they need to finish the deal and get him big league starts the rest of the year.

I remember talking to a friend who is a Yankees fan after the Red Sox beat the Yankees in 2004. “That guy is disgusting, he would never play for my team,” said my pinstripe loving friend. Just two years later Damon would sign with the Yanks, and become a fan favorite by the time he left in 2009. He was part of the “idiots” of 2004 that defeated the biggest albatross in sports history.

Last week Damon was idiot again, not by returning to the Red Sox, but staying with Detroit to honor his deal. It seemed like a perfect fit, Damon returning to the scene of the crime and helping the Sox make the playoffs. Who knows, with the state of the Yanks pitching maybe its part of another collapse, beating the team that let him get away.

Instead Johnny Damon was an idiot, he spurned a pennant race to stay and honor his contract. Imagine that! No, it wasn’t because the Sox wouldn’t pay for something, or that he wasn’t up to moving his family this late in the season, but rather he felt obligated to send the right message to a young Detroit team. He wanted to finish what he started with the Tigers, and not distract a Red Sox team that has won virtually shorthanded all year. He didn’t want to make the story about Johnny Damon.

Sometimes an act like this would be considered selfish, especially if Detroit lost out on prospects in a deal. It doesn’t sound like that was the case, and it was more a salary dump for the final month. It’s just a ballplayer doing what he felt was right, rather than thinking of himself.

Boy, what an idiot that Johnny Damon is. Can you believe it? I would never want him on my team.

That gutty-gritties complete another road series with an uncharacteristic 2-1 W bringing them home to finish up AUG with an un-Yankee like 14-13 record for the month. Despite that, their 80-50 record is still tied for tops in the league. Despite that, concern about their health for the stretch run and the post-season continues to rise. The hate for #28 is here!

If you’re taking the satellite photo of the team’s overall well-being you still see All-Star quality up and down the lineup with 1st ballot HOF names sprinkled throughout the roster. If you zoom in to the ‘local radar’ though, the back end of the rotation is frayed, Andy is a month away at least and A-Rod, Posada, and even Teixeira are limping and gimping around.
The 5-day forecast calls for attacks on Jeter’s splits, Cashman’s picks, and Hughes’ Rules…Yes, Yankee fans, despite all this, you’re still 42-22 at the Bandbox in the Bronx. You still have Cano, Gardner, Swisher and of course Mo sitting out their waiting to put the bats to sleep in the 9th. But this year is not a sure thing. You will have to park it about 98 W’s to ensure a playoff spot because Red Sox are going to win north of 95 games with 7-10 key players on the DL. That’s spite.

So let’s take a look back and then ahead to see what meaningful SEPT baseball shapes up like for the home of champions.

The Pettitte Chase – Just circle the week of SEPT 20th and ignore just about everything from now until then. The team will christen the Tampa series with the unveiling of the new monument to the Boss and somewhere during that week the Core 4 will be restored as Andy will magically reappear. If that doesn’t happen, feel free to sweat. Until then, SuperNova.

Catcher In The Sigh – There must be a 12-step program for Posada to enter to get rid of his addiction to catching. It’s clear that Girardi is unsold that Jorge has to play 5 games a week in order to keep his bat happy. So the cold war that started last year and has simmered all Summer is about to rekindle itself. With 8 day games in the first few weeks of SEPT
on tap, look for a lot of Cervelli and a chance of Posada behind the plate. But once SEPT 20th arrives is “Po-time” again.

Release The Kracken – As posted right here by Jed Weisberger - the Yanks have a secret weapon for the stretch run that will bring all the hand-wringing about the starters to a temporary end.

We’ve seen what Nova can offer and some of the pickups like Kerry Wood haven’t looked too shabby. The pen has been somewhat steadied by the emergence of Robertson in the 8th and Logan and even Vazquez in the 7th. Even the trials and tribulations of Joba have found the Summer Wind and are less of an issue now. So let all the CC and the Pussycats talk just waft around because Chicago Joe Girardi is going to use every available arm Cashman feeds him to get the W’s now.

When I read Mike Silva’s post describing the ‘10 team as a “Late Torre” edition - Yes, those were the salad days for the Yankee haters. There was Bubba Crosby in Game 5 in ’05, A-Rod batting 8th in ’06, and the midges in ’07…This team doesn’t appear headed for that type of post-season shame. This one looks like a team that won’t go down without a fight but won’t find any other contender a pushover. Yankee fans are riding the local this year. The express train downtown to the Canyon of Heroes is not showing up. And by the way, Manny’s plane is landing in Chicago. Just saying…

I’ll be back to see what the ALDS looks like close up after the regular season drama ends and the curtain rises on another “Yankees Only” OCT in NY. If you have any questions/comments, e-mail me.

At some point in this zombie-like process, Jerry Manual needs to fess up. They begin a 4-game series in ATL perched on the .500 mark after stumbling and bumbling through an aggravating 12-14 month. Just seeing that 65-65 next to the Braves 75-55 is all you need to know to realize that the 2010 Mets are not injured, they are mortally wounded. Jerry’s Monty Python act has gotten so tired even he can’t look the media in the eye. He resembles my old driver’s ed instructor, who was also my football coach. During the last few weeks of the class he’d read straight from the textbook, sip his coffee and then tell us to get lost. All he wanted was for damn the Summer to end so he could get to football season. Most Met fans have shifted from reality MLB to fantasy NFL.

I’ll start this DL with a litany…I’m looking at the travels of one Manny Ramirez since he left Boston at the trading deadline in 2008 and hit .396 over 53 games for the Dodgers, who didn’t even pay him! They went to the NLCS after languishing around the .500 mark most of that Summer. The Mets? They were busy doing nothing and then they lost Billy Wagner and then the division and then the Wild Card…all with Jerry and Omar (and Jeff) minding the store. Of course, in typical Mets style, Billy will probably close a few games for ATL this week and Manny will waft into Chicago (in a waiver deal mind you) and help the White Sox catch the Twins again for zero compensation. So Omar and Jeff and their little baseball pow-wow have left Manny criss-cross the country twice when he was available for NO money once and NO compensation now.

But Hojo, he stays!

The 2010 battle was lost without any fight. The white flag has been waving high over CitiField for about 8 weeks now. It all ended on that trip to Puerto Rico during that ill-fated series with the mocking Marlins, who always seems to be the grinning reaper for lost seasons. Let’s go around the horn and see where the Mets season went off course for good…
and as usual, no one bothered to steer it back on (again).

Infielders
The early hope that Ike Davis embodied in APR and MAY has faded over the Summer months, but he’s probably the only one on the current roster that fans forgive his sins. 2B has been a occupied by the ghost of the past (Castillo) and the ghost of the future (Tejada) now that Alex Cora is on the Rangers bench. With Reyes’ oblique injury flaring up last THURS and the rosters expanding this WED, maybe the baseball gods will let us see Reese Havens (who’s also hurt now!) before the leaves fall. Over at 3B, the enigmatic David Wright continues to wince and frown his way through each game while Mets fans do the same thing. But his agent is happy. His stats are fine. But no NL manager fears/covets him anymore…

Outfielders
The quagmire that is the Mets outfield has endured so many shuffles and shifts it’s a wonder they don’t run into each other on a regular basis just taking their positions. Pagan has played all three spots this Summer and until the last road trip seemed to have shaken off his oblique injury. With Beltran back now, the outfield has become 2 corners and a diva. Despite clearing waivers and being willing to bypass any no-trade clauses, #15 will ride it out in CF and continue his rehab assignment on the big club. I predict he’ll be scoped by Thanksgiving and it’ll be another off-season in the pool for him. Over in RF, we have the human batting cage, Francouer. He delayed his departure with a few game-winning HR’s among his countless empty ab’s. Why? Well F-Mart actually managed to hit less so Frenchy’s feast or famine defense stays on. Notice I didn’t mention Jason Bay who started out AUG saying he’d be out a week…or was it until there was a week left?

Starters
It’s just a damn shame. At various times this month you would of thought that all five starters could of sued the Mets for non-support, but the fact is that every game’s outcome depends on one stat. What’s the score after 7 innings. If the Mets trail, that 2-47 record can deny this staff even the dignity of getting an 8 inning ND after allowing a measly 2 runs. When you pitch for an offense that takes just under 3 hits to score once, every run you give up can beat you. And has!

Relievers
If you thought the outfield was a mess, the pen is where both Jerry and Omar’s best work has been done. And by done I mean finishing off whatever chance this team had to compete. Despite running off scoreless streaks of 20+ innings a few times this Summer, the pen is where one Ollie P resides, so enough said. And when you lose K-Rod the way the Mets did and have a manager with no capacity to make a successful pitching change during any point in a game not started by John Maine (remember him?) you get the multiple-run explosions that AZ, PHI, ATL and FLA have had when close and even winnable games like last THURS night become controlled scrimmages in the blink of an eye. Add that to their walk-off and extra-inning losses and you have the recipe for a very thin pen that forces the starters to go deep or die trying. Nice job!

Bench
This is the mystery meat part of the roster where the likes of “Crash Davis” Mike Hessman, Jose Feliciano, Luis Castillo Henry Blanco and Chris Carter vie for the right be the one who either strikes out looking, hits into a double play or hits the weak ground ball to the right side to bring another 8th or 9th inning rally to a prompt end. So it’s perfectly understandable to me that the day after not getting to start on the heels of his PH single, Castillo asked to be traded. When the roster moves to 40 players this week, and these AAAA types get lumped in with the prospects and why not’s will we notice?

Manager/Coaching Staff
Yes, I realize this is DL report. But to me, the real ‘oblique’ injury the Mets have had all year is their beleaguered and bewildered on field management. This is where the malaise oozes the most. Jerry’s frequent jogs out to argue the occasional call are even truncated now. The Dan Warthen visits to the mound are like a cue to the other team to smack
whatever get me over pitch he cajoles whatever embattled pitcher he’s about to annoy. The rest of the staff from Hojo to Razor to Chip, Dave and Randy are not exactly what I’d call a brain trust. I’d say these 5 are counting the days now.

GM and Ownership
It’s been another banner Summer for Omar and the Wilpons. With no Tony B scandal or Adam Rubin fiasco, all the focus can fall on…oops, well there was that Fred Wilpon senior moment about the sun coming up…and the infamous disqualified list conference call with Jeff a few weeks back. But don’t fret. The lack of making a single addition to the roster despite
watching just about all 6 of the teams they’re chasing make moves, the Met brass is committed…to what I’m not sure?

So as the 2010 Mets try to make 3 or 4 of their last 32 games meaningful despite the apathy that drapes their team, their fan base and their leadership, just keep your eyes a few miles south of City Field where a tree grows in Brooklyn. And if the Met fans can find a silver lining in this most comatose of all SEPT’s, it’s the skipper of their Single A overachieving 1st place Cyclones, who are playing Wallyball to a vibrant Coney Island crowd. So the transfusion is on Surf Avenue. But the call for the ambulance isn’t going to be made until we’re close to thinking more about Thanksgiving football. Hang in there.

That’s all from Queens for now. I’ll be back for a season review in OCT to access how the Mets played down the stretch and see if they found any jewel in the molasses. Any questions/comments, e-mail me.

Over the last few weeks, I have had the privilege to cover several baseball games at several different levels in Minor League Baseball.

I was asked over and over again about Yankees right-hander Ivan Nova and shortstop Eduardo Nunez.  Many seem to be totally unfamiliar with both.  Both were on my winter list of Yankees top prospect written for New York Baseball Digest – Nunez No. 8 and Nova No. 10.

Both, I thought, had a chance of reaching the majors in late 2010 and both did.  Nova was 12-3, 2.86 with 115 strikeouts and 48 walks in 23 starts at Triple-A Scranton. His fastball can reach 97 mph, his power curve a plus-pitch as well, He has perfected a changeup, which made him big-league ready.

As for Nunez, written off by several who never saw him play in 2009, when he hit .322 for Double-A Trenton, because he had 31 errors. He quieted the naysayers by batting .289 (134-for-464) at Scranton and committing just 14 errors in 118 infield starts. He can hit the inside pitch with power and knows how to get the bat on the ball.

Dozens of bloggers rate teams’ prospects these days.  This is good. It brings players like Nova and Nunez to light.  But, as someone who has covered baseball at all levels – for print and the Web – for 35 years, I can’t see how someone can really report legitimately on any player he or she hasn’t seen perform.

I have no issue with sabermetrics.  I have all of Bill James’ books from the beginning.  In today’s minor leagues, numbers don’t always predict what a player can do.

Here’s why:

To begin with, not every ballpark in Minor League Baseball is lit the same way. There are regulations about candlepower and the like, but not all parks have uniform lighting like in the majors. This affects both offense and defense.

In Double-A, for instance, the Eastern League, for various reasons – spring weather among them – is much more a pitcher’s league than either the Texas or Southern.

In Single-A, you have the heat, humidity and big ballparks of the Florida State League vs. the high-altitude of some of the California League stops.   Want numbers? Let’s look at Bubba Bell, an outfielder in the Boston system presently playing at Triple-A Pawtucket in the International League.

Bell started the 2007 season with the Lancaster (Calif.) JetHawks, Boston’s High-A affiliate at the time. In 76 games, Bell batted .370 (119-for-322) with 22 homers and 83 RBIs. Promoted to Double-A Portland, he was respectable in 34 games – batting .285 (39-for-147) with four homers and 22 RBIs.

Why the difference, other than Double-A pitchers are tougher? Everyone who knows the minors well realizes stats in the California League can be inflated. Bell is a solid player, but has not driven in 49 runs in a full season since 2007.

No wonder Boston bought the Salem (Va.) franchise in the Carolina League to assure their prospects could play in a more realistic environment.

My rule on rating prospects: Don’t write about them, or rate them, if you haven’t seen them.

With the minor-league season heading to a close – and three Yankees full-season teams (Triple-A Scranton, Double-A Trenton and High-A Tampa) heading to the playoffs, it might be a good time to review what my best 10 – as rated last November – have done this season:

1.  Jesus Montero – After coming to spring training overweight, and  struggling initially, Montero has batted .363 (49-for-135) since the All- Star Break and is hitting 288 (120-for-417) with 18 homers and 65 RBIs. His catching skills have also improved

2. Austin Jackson – I felt he would reach the majors in 2010, just not as Detroit’s starting center fielder. AJ’s defense has been excellent and he is hitting .307 (152-for-495).  He has just two homers and 29 RBIs in 121 games – and has struck out 137 times.  Detroit is not worried about power from him, but is pleased with his 21 stolen bases.

3. Zach McAllister – After a big year at Trenton in 2009, McAllister, who went 8-10, 5.09 with Triple-A Scranton, was passed on the system depth chart by David Phelps, Hector Noesi, Lance Pendleton and D.J. Mitchell, who all started at Trenton were promoted to Triple-A. This made McAllister expendable as the player-to-be-named-later in the Austin Kearns trade. He is 1-1, 6.55 in two starts with Triple-A Columbus.

4. Francisco Cervelli –Earned spot as Yankees backup catcher, where some feel he could remain for 15 years.  Been OK defensively and offensively, after a hot start, is batting .253 (59-for-233) in 78 games with 32 RBIs.

5. Austin Romine –Batting .263 (113-for-430) with nine homers and 62 RBIs for Trenton.  He has caught nearly 100 games for the first time and is drawing praise for his handling of pitchers and overall mechanics. He remains ahead of Montero in those categories.

6. David Phelps – Righty who was poo-pooed by some observers rolled through the Eastern League, going 6-0, 2.04 before a promotion to Scranton. Overall, he is 9-2, 2.59 with a strikeout/walk ratio of 132-34. Profiles as a third or fourth starter. Has hit 94 mph with his fastball

7. Kevin Russo – Got a chance with the Yankees and played well in the field. Did not hit, batting just .188 (9-for-48) in 29 games. Batting .259 (78-for-301) in 73 games at Scranton.  Has been passed in the pecking order by Colin Curtis.

8. Eduardo Nunez –  See above.

9. Ian Kennedy – Was sent to Arizona as part of winter’s three-way deal and has pitched quite well at times for lowly D-Backs. Is 8-9, 4.22 in 26 starts and is coming off a 12-strikeout effort against San Diego earlier this week.

10. Ivan Nova – See above.

Ivan Nova won his first big league ballgame, and provided the Yankees with a much needed win in the process. Combing the blogosphere this morning this quote by Benjamin Kabak of River Avenue Blues stood out to me:

Ivan Nova isn’t one of the heralded arms leading the Yankee farm system this season. He doesn’t generate the same kind of buzz as a Brackman, Betances or Banuelos does. But for the second straight start, he has beguiled Major League hitters, lending stability to a shaky Yankee rotation. On Sunday, he earned himself the game ball as he picked up his first Big League win.

In the age of the internet everyone has an opinion, and is an expert. It’s amazing how certain players (i.e. Joba Chamberlain) are latched onto and made out to be bigger than life. Meanwhile, someone like Nova flies through the system virtually unnoticed, even though he always had potential.

The reason is numbers, something we debate here all the time. It’s so hard to translate minor league numbers to the big league level. Yes, there are equivalency calculators, but you really don’t know how a kid will translate unless you get to see him on a daily basis. That is why many had Arodys Vizcaino on their Top 10 prospect list, while our very own Jed Weisberger of MILB threw out names like Nova, David Phelps, and Eduardo Nunez. That’s because he spends time around the ballpark, talks to scouts, and knows how to translate the numbers to make a projection. The numbers don’t tell us work ethic, desire, physical limitations, or willingness to improve. This isn’t an indictment on anyone, but more how numbers can skew the hype and expectations.

Who knows what Ivan Nova‘s future brings? I still think he needs to mix up his secondary pitches because he continues to be all fastball in each of his first two starts. What I do know is the Yankees may have found a quality pitcher who just two years ago was struggling in High A Tampa. No hype, no adulation, just hard work and development. The more we think we know about prospects, the less we really do.

This has been mentioned before on the site, but Josh Thole looks to be a great fit for the #2 hole in the lineup. I mentioned Paul Lo Duca as a comparison to Thole, specifically how well he did as the #2 hitter back in 2006.

Take a look at Lo Duca’s numbers that year:

5 homers, 49 RBI, .318 batting average, OPS of .783

In a small sample of 44 games Thole is:

2 homers, 10 RBI, .307 batting average, OPS of .778

Thole is actually putting up a similar year to Lo Duca in his brief 128 plate appearances. Obviously this is more than just numbers, as Thole has a decent eye and makes contact.

As I have said before, the Mets have some interesting pieces for 2011. Thole is certainly one of them.

Tonight we talk about the latest in New York baseball with a host of contributors.

Hear my thoughts on Ivan Nova, the Yankees starting pitching, and if there is a chance for Brian Cashman to acquire a starter before the end of August. Joining me to talk about all this, and other Yankees topics, is Steve Lombardi of Was Watching.

Jed Weisberger of MILB gives us the latest on Jenrry Mejia as he makes his AAA debut. Hear him talk about the progress of Lance Berkman and Andy Pettitte as well.

Finally, Howard Megdal of SNY talks about R.A. Dickey and the latest from Flushing.

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