Pelfrey & Hughes Best “Value” in New York
By Mike Silva ~ June 16th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva, Sabermetrics, Statistical Analysis.
With the advent of advanced metrics easily available to the layman you can have some fun with numbers from time to time. Although I have been critical of the stat WAR (Wins Above Replacement) when evaluating a players true value on the field, I do believe it can help give you a sense of the financial return. Using Fangraphs “WAR converted to a dollar scale” I can see what a player would make in free agency. Looking up their true salary over at Cot’s Contracts and comparing it to Fangraphs Dollars who are the top five “value players” for both local teams?
Yankees
Phil Hughes (+ $8.4 million) - $8.8 million WAR dollars to actual salary of 447k
Brett Gardner (+ $6.5 million) - $7.0 million WAR dollars to actual salary of 452k
Robinson Cano (+$6.2 million) - $15.2 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $9 million
Joba Chamberlain (+ $3.3 million) - $3.8 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $488k
Francisco Cervelli (+ $2.4 million) - $2.8 million WAR dollars to actual salary of 411k
Mets
Mike Pelfrey (+ $6.4 million) - $7.7 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $1.3 million
Angel Pagan (+ $6.2 million) - $7.7 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $1.5 million
Jonathon Niese (+ $3.8 million) - $4.2 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $402k
Hisanori Takahashi (+ $3.0 million) - $4.0 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $1.0 million
Henry Blanco (+ $2.6 million) - $3.3 million WAR dollars to actual salary of $750k
Who provides the least amount of value for both teams? The Yankees are paying Alex Rodriguez $25 million more than his production and the Mets Johan Santana is making $15 million dollars above his current production level.
Of course, there are players on both teams like Alex Cora, Oliver Perez, and Chan Ho Park that owe the club money for negative value.
Again, this is a fun exercise, but the WAR stat and subsequent dollar value is based on one individual’s perceived bias on value. Regardless, it’s a great template to have some fun discussion.
You can read Fangraphs glossary to learn more about this advanced metrics.
June 16th, 2010 at 11:15 am
Mike, Pelfrey only makes $500K in 2010 …. he signed that sweet deal out of college — 4 years/$5.25M (2006-09), plus 2010 club option — thanks to Scott Boras.
However, his 2010 salary acrually regressed since he was not yet arbitration eligible or a free agent …. NY Mets exercised $500K 2010 club option 11/6/09.
Pagan’s 2010 salary is $1.45M …. he re-signed by the Mets on 2/9/10 and avoided arbitration.
June 16th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Mike, I’m not sure you are reading the fangraphs 2010 dollar values correctly. As I read those values, Santana has generated $5.9M worth of value for the Mets so far this season. But the season is only about 40% complete, so if Johan continues to produce at his current pace he will have produced about $15M of value for the Mets for the full season. That’s still not up to his $21M salary for 2010, but it’s a lot closer than you suggest when you (incorrectly, I think) use his $5.9M value produced so far as if it were Johan’s production for the entire season. Or to approach the same point another way, you can say that Johan’salary for the 40% of the season played so far has been $8.4M (i.e., 40% of his full season $21M) and that he has only produced $5.9M in value so far. That would put him about $2.5M on the negative side for the first 64 games of the year.
June 16th, 2010 at 6:42 pm
Birtel
I could see where my breakdown was clumsy. I think the big point is the guys who are the biggest value still would be Pelfrey and Hughes under whatever analysis provided.
June 17th, 2010 at 12:01 am
Of course, Mike. It will almost always be true that the biggest bargains are guys (1) having a first huge breakthrough and (2) not yet free agents. No surprise there -the current labor contract arrangements makes it pretty much inevitable.
June 17th, 2010 at 4:42 am
Retarded and useless