I read and enjoyed Joel Sherman’s article on the best way to use Luis Castillo. Sherman continues to be the best, most innovative and thought provoking baseball writer in New York.

However, I have to respectfully disagree with him. Not with how Castillo should be used, because he should be a table setter, and not because Sherman believes with Castillo hitting in front of him, Jose Reyes could be a huge RBI man. Because I also believe that Reyes, with his 190+ hits over the last four seasons, including a career high 204 last season. Reyes can be a huge run producer. While his OBP has improved over the last couple years, it is still a subpar .336 for his career, not great for a leadoff hitter.

Reyes has jumped his power production to include 16, 12 and 19 homers over the last three seasons and 30, 36 and 37 doubles over the same time. Save for Curtis Granderson, we know Reyes can bang out triples better than anyone in baseball, too; slugging and speeding his way to 65 over the last four seasons – with 19 in 2008. His slugging percentage last year of .475 was best of his career and he continues to be a free swinger, often swinging at pitches out of the strike zone.

Reyes is becoming less a leadoff hitter and more of a middle of the order lineup threat. That is why Jose Reyes needs to be the #3 hitter for the Mets this season. After back to back disappointing years, the 2009 season is so important for the Mets franchise.

There are many other factors which lead Reyes to be the #3 hitter:

1) Carlos Delgado will not be a New York Met beyond 2009.

Who is going to hit in the middle of the Mets lineup the next couple of seasons? The Mets might go after Matt Holliday for next season to play LF and then move Daniel Murphy to first base. They better make sure they can outbid the Red Sox, who have been drooling over acquiring Holliday for two seasons. If the economy improves by next off season, there could be other teams bidding for Holliday, too, like the Dodgers, Angels and the usual suspects.

A more likely (and cost effective) scenario is that Fernando Martinez stays healthy, becomes the force he is supposed to become, and then takes over left field full time next year – with Murphy once again taking over at first base. But, F-Mart is not a middle of the order hitter – yet.

That leaves Reyes for the #3 spot next year, protected by the patient David Wright at clean up. So, why not get Reyes acclimated to the middle of the lineup a year earlier?

2) Luis Castillo appears to be the Castillo of old.

Castillo lost weight (reports have him at dropping 17 pounds), has improved his leg strength and, while in the leadoff spot this spring, has taken pitches, put the ball in play and gotten on base. He shows no effects from last season’s leg injuries, and his promise to Omar Minaya to work hard in the off season and come into camp in great shape cannot go unnoticed.

His career OBP of .367 is much superior to Reyes’ .336. Even though Castillo had a terrible season in 2008, his OBP of .355 compares favorably to Reyes’ .358 of a year ago.

The new Castillo will be more productive for the Mets in the leadoff spot, with Beltran hitting #2, followed by Reyes and Wright. 

3) Reyes leads the team in hits every season.

Except for 2007 when Reyes’ 191 hits were 5 behind Wright’s 196, but you get the picture. Reyes gets a lot of hits, but these hits are wasted at the top of the order. Hits are needed to drive in runs and Reyes will be more productive in the #3 hole, especially with Castillo and Beltran on base in front of him. After early season injuries to Castillo and Church, Reyes was pitched around so much last season and still had 204 hits, but should be even more productive this year hitting in front of Wright the entire season.

With Castillo and Beltran hitting in front of him, Reyes will have many more opportunities to drive in runs, and those 200 of so hits will be very productive.

4) Reyes will still get his stolen bases, appeasing his needs.

Supposedly, Reyes loves the stolen base stat, and a lot of steals really boosts his desire to play hard.  Jose – don’t tell that to the saber heads out there in Met-land.

Anyways, with two speedy runners in Castillo and Beltran in front of him, Reyes will still get plenty of opportunities to run when batting third. Many times after Reyes gets a hit, Beltran will get to third. Also, with Jerry Manuel’s aggressive nature, Reyes will be on the back end of double steals with Castillo or Beltran. It will be a good move to double steal with the right handed Wright up, not all the time but in certain situations.

Many people are saying you can’t run Reyes in the #3 spot as teams will take the bat out of Wright’s hand by pitching around him. But, if they walk Wright, I would take two (or more) men on with Delgado coming up all day long. With a lefty on the hill, Reyes stays put (also because Wright pounds lefties), but when a RHP is on the hill in that situation, Reyes has the green light.

5) Daniel Murphy is better suited to the #7 spot in the order.

If Reyes hits leadoff, the likely #2 hitter is Murphy, who takes pitches, works the count, etc. While Murphy is a good OBP guy, so is Beltran, but Murphy projects to hit for a higher average. At the #7 spot in the order OBP is nice, but more importantly from this spot is a higher average, and the ability to get hits. With higher OBP’s becoming so important for the guys in the middle of the lineup, as opposed to just the top, there needs to be a guy who can generate hits to drive home Wright (.390 OBP in 2008), Delgado (.353), Church (.346) and/or Tatis (.369).

Murphy is the best person for this position, hitting in the #7 hole behind the high OBP guys. If Murphy hits the .313 like he did last season (albeit in only 150 plate appearances), or even around .300, he will drive in better than 100 runs in the #7 hole this season.

Besides the thoughts of many blown saves last season, another problem was the lack of clutch hits. Murphy in the bottom of the order will help that situation. The Mets #7 hitters last season combined for a .247/.312/.357, driving in only 71 runs. Those types of numbers left a lot of men on base.

Don’t underestimate the value of having a high average hitter in that spot in the order.

I would also platoon Ryan Church and Fernando Tatis in #6 spot, and wouldn’t really worry about the three lefties in a row (Delgado, Church and Murphy) because they will only be together against righty starters. If a lefty comes in later, Manuel has Tatis off the bench for Church. Also, Murphy hits lefties well while Delgado’s a .263 career hitter vs. lefties, not exactly terrible.

My lineup: Castillo, Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Delgado, Church/Tatis, Murphy, Schneider, Pitcher.

The idea of using another high OBP guy like Castillo at the #9 hole is plausible, but that changes the dynamic of the #7 spot which would likely be filled by Schneider. His lack of offensive production would leave too many men on base, costing the Mets too many missed runs. Tony LaRussa started this “trend” last season by using position players in the Cardinals #9 spot so as to give Albert Pujols, the #3 hitter, more RBI opportunities.

This is a different story for the Mets, as they are much deeper with their lineup than the Cardinals. LaRussa was forced to stack the deck for the best hitter in baseball, and was going for broke every time Pujols was coming up in the lineup. With the Mets better offensively than St. Louis, Manuel need not have to be so creative. They do not need to get another regular hitter in front of Reyes, Wright and Delgado.

With a healthy Castillo and Beltran getting on base at 35 to 37% clips in front of him, Reyes will drive in about 130 runs when getting his usual 190+ hits. Huge RBI numbers (and the prestige it gets) will overcome any mental problems Reyes might have regarding his reduced stolen base total.

On Base Percentage is important for scoring runs, but for the most part, those runs don’t get home unless batters behind them get hits. Reyes and Wright back to back at #3 and 4 in the lineup will drive in those runs that were sorely needed on many occasions last season. True, the Mets scored 799 runs last year, second in the National League, but won 29 games via the blowout (5+ runs) and lost 19 games by a single run. A few more runs in the right spots here and there help the Mets into the playoffs.

It doesn’t matter how many runs you score, but when you actually score them. With hitting, timing is everything – in more ways than one.

It is time for Jose Reyes to hit third.

Tags: Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Jerry Manuel, Jose Reyes, Luis Castillo, New York Mets