As we approach our “Pitchers and Catchers” show this Sunday, I would like to set the stage for how both New York teams fair in the bullpen, starting rotation, bench, and starting nine. I will give my thoughts throughout the weekend leading up to the show at 7pm.

Now that Johan Santana has proven he is worth every penny of the $145 million dollar investment, the rest of the rotation must fall in line to follow his lead. Santana carried the Mets during the month of September on a bum knee. The  Mets decided to stand pat with the same starting group that produced 61 wins and a 3.98 ERA. Will Perez, Maine, Pelfrey, and a fifth starter be enough to overcome the Phillies, or will the lack of a known quantity behind Santana undermine the improvements made in the bullpen? Knowing that Brandon Knight, Tony Armas Jr, Jonathan Niese, Bobby Parnell, Elmer Dessons, and recently signed Livan Hernandez are your backup options you better hope your rotation gives you consistency throughout 2009.

The starting pitching questions start with Oliver Perez. Although Derek Lowe was the perfect fit behind Santana, age and contractual demands made that not a realistic possibility. Many believe the Perez contract is the worst of the offseason, despite having numbers that compare with former big leaguers Frank Viola and Mark Langston at similar points in their career. I never was comfortable walking away from a 27 year old lefty with upside. This season Perez needs to take the lessons, both mental and physical, he learned in the second half of 08’ and translates that into a full season of success. You could live with what he provided in 2007 (15-10, 3.57), but logic states you will get somewhere between that and his production last season.

If Perez doesn’t provide you stability, then the next best option is Mike Pelfrey. After his start against LA on May 31st, he lowered his ERA over a full run a game. Throughout the summer, next to Santana, he was the Mets most reliable pitcher, providing quality starts and pitching deep into games. When was the last time you saw a 24 year old pitcher throw back to back complete games? Can Pelfrey repeat his post Memorial Day performance? Will the 200 innings from last year be a problem? The first question remains to be seen.  As far as the innings, many forget he pitched 150 innings in 2007 between the majors and minors. That is a 25% jump, but this is the same pitcher that threw 140 innings as a college senior at Wichita State. If he could come back from that heavy college workload then the additional pro innings shouldn’t be as big of a deal.

Many thought John Maine was emerging as a possible ace, or at least solid number two. Arm problems shortened his season and took away most of his ability to throw strikes. Despite the 67 walks in 141 innings, Maine was able to win 10 games. He is fast becoming one of the grittiest members of the pitching staff. Maine, although very hard on himself, is a competitor and nearly tried to pitch through the pain to help the team through difficult times. Is he healthy? He claims to be, but I still have my concerns. Rick Peterson mentioned recently how he wanted to limit Maine’s usage because of poor mechanics. Knowing that, can you ever rely on Maine to be healthy and pitch major innings? Is he destined to be a good back of the rotation starter? Or will 2009 be like his 07’ campaign where he won 15 games, pitched nearly 200 innings, and almost threw the first no hitter in Mets history?

The fifth spot of the rotation may be the best competition in camp. Freddy Garcia claims the spot is his to lose, Tim Redding is making over $2 million dollars, and Jonathan Niese told the NY Post he would do anything , including relieve, to be on the major league roster. Also, what about Livan Hernandez? Could he find the fountain of youth and be the best option of all? I believe, if Garcia is healthy, he could be the steal of the offseason. This was a player that won nearly as many games as Mike Mussina over a seven year period. He was a key component of the Randy Johnson trade and also has a great postseason track record. The Mets should hope that Garcia’s shoulder is healthy because you can’t get very excited over the remaining options. Redding is not too far removed from a Fenway Park disaster, Niese probably needs another year of seasoning, and Livan Hernandez gave up over six runs a game last season.

As much as the bullpen is key for the Mets, it will come down to starting pitching. The Yankees thought they had a nice rotation last year. By midseason they were asking Sidney Ponson, Darrell Rasner, and Dan Giese to pitch meaningful games.  Remember how that worked out? If the Mets suffer one, or more, setbacks in this rotation they could be faced with a similar situation except the names will be Dessens, Armas, and Knight. Even if healthy Maine, Perez, and Pelfrey have yet to show they can give a full season of consistent performance. For the 2009 Mets that’s not an option.

Tags: New York Mets, Starting Rotation