As we approach our “Pitchers and Catchers” show this Sunday, I would like to set the stage for how both New York teams fair in the bullpen, starting rotation, bench, and starting nine. I will give my thoughts throughout the weekend leading up to the show at 7pm.

When thinking about the new and improved Yankees starting rotation you immediately have to bring up CC Sabathia. Just like Johan Santana did for the Mets last year, Sabathia can immediately slot the rest of the starting rotation in positions where they can be more successful. What he can’t do is overcome some of the age, injury history, and innings limitations that are issues with the remaining four starters. Despite that, the Yankees very well could have a rotation that makes the AL East a great three team race.

There will be no competition, barring injury or extreme performance this spring, with the Yankees rotation. Phil Hughes, Alfredo Aceves, Jason Johnson, JB Cox, Kei Igawa, and newly acquired Brett Tomko are all AAA depth. As mentioned in the bullpen piece, Aceves and Hughes could be better candidates for a reliever role at this point. Knowing that each of the aforementioned names is huge question mark, the need for the current five to answer any of their doubts affirmatively is important.

Chin Mein Wang stands the most to benefit from the presence of Sabathia. Having been asked to be the ace of the staff the last two seasons, Wang always seemed more Robin than Batman. He is underappreciated by the strikeout loving sabr fans, but showed in the 07′ playoffs you can’t rely on him to anchor your staff. He could be the best number two starter in the AL, and with the pressure of ace taken away, might be better than ever. The Yankees never rebounded after his injury last season so all eyes will be on him to insure that he is 100% recovered.
The debate about Joba in the starting rotation vs. bullpen is history – for now. Unlike last spring, the Yankees will only be going into the season with one pitcher under the age of 23. Chamberlain will be asked to fit in versus perform at a high level. No one, including me, believes that Chamberlain can’t perform, but rather can he stay healthy? Will he able to develop into a pitcher that goes deep into games? This year I believe you are looking for a solid five to six innings. There is talk about limiting him to about 150 innings. Joba might be the most watched fifth starter in league history.

Injury concerns are an understatement with AJ Burnett. 2008 was his best and most healthy season. Has he turned the corner? Will he realize his potential in the back half of his prime? Or will this be an $80 million dollar mistake? I never was a proponent of the signing, but other pitchers have overcome a dubious injury history to have solid careers. Al Leiter spent the first ten years of his career on the disabled list. He broke out in 1996 and became a borderline number one starter the rest of his career. You could see AJ Burnett becoming another version of Leiter- or the next Carl Pavano. My guess is that he will fall somewhere in between. I expect more of the 2007 version of Burnett (10-8, 3.75, 165 innings) than the version from last season (18-10, 4.07, 221 innings).

We now know why the Yankees played hardball with Andy Pettitte this winter. Pitching the second half on a bum shoulder certainly sheds light on their reluctance to sign him to a 16 million dollar deal. It makes you wonder why he didn’t jump at the teams initial 10 million dollar offer. Regardless, they need Andy Pettitte to provide innings- and lots of them. Unless Burnett can give another 230 innings, Pettitte might be asked to pitch every bit the 204 innings he did last year. Without those innings the young bullpen might be called on earlier then you would like. The Yanks have enough depth to figure out the innings part, but can Pettitte be somewhere between the first and second half of last year’s performance? I believe, if healthy, that you can get another 12-15 wins from the gritty veteran. Plus, wouldn’t you rather have a proven big game pitcher then just another veteran starter? Some AL teams don’t have a front three pitcher as good as Pettitte, much less a number four. It’s not a stretch to think that he could be the key to the 2009 rotation.

The Yankees starting rotation is in a far better place heading into this season. Last year they passed on an ace, foolishly banked on three young pitchers reaching their maximum potential, and didn’t sign any decent starting pitching depth. All three of those issues were answered this offseason. The renewed rotation is the main reason why the Yankees might make the 2009 AL East one of the best division races ever.

Update(11:55 AM): In response to one of our readers comments, the exclusion of Kennedy as a typo. Although I didn’t believe he is in the Yankees plans, based on what  I have heard, so it wasn’t worth delving into. JB Cox is on the depth charts as a start, so I assumed he is on the extreme outside. You may have a point about Hughes, but I still question whether they want him to start in the minors. If Johan Santana can be a reliever, so can Phil Hughes early in his career.

Tags: New York Yankees, Starting Rotation