As we get closer to Groundhog Day, veterans such as Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets still have yet to find a home. Furthermore, there is no indication as to what exactly their options are in this depressed free agent market. Although this type of situation could help small market teams land a star on the cheap (think Ben Sheets), it can play into the hands of the locals.

When the reality of a one year deal hits many of these stars, where do you think they will go first? Will Scott Boras peddle their services to Pittsburgh or Kansas City? Or more likely, the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Angels? Obviously, the highest bidder factors into these decisions, but there is no way the Kansas City Royals can outbid the Yankees for someone like Ben Sheets. Also, do you think Andy Pettitte wants to spend the possible last year of his career thirty games out of first? All these players want the most money, but they also know the mortality of their career.

This will become more of an advantage as the season heads into the summer months. Teams that are contenders today (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Arizona, Oakland, Seattle), might be also ran’s come July. The supply might outweigh the demand at this year’s trading deadline. Good news for buyers, bad news for sellers. Last year, the Mariners were asking for a top pitching prospect for Raul Ibanez. If there are ten corner outfielders on the market, you might be lucky to get an average organizational prospect. Remember, dumping salary might trump any future development at the deadline.

This doesn’t mean the Mets should go into the season without signing Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets. It also wouldn’t be smart for the Yankees to ignore Andy Pettitte, if and when his price drops. What it does mean is that the locals could use the first three months to find out what their real needs are. How often do we breakdown a team in February, and come May, their needs are completely different. Last year, no one would have thought the Mets bullpen to be as rotten as it was. The Yankees offense wasn’t even close to being a concern. Both derailed possible playoff appearances.

Baseball, as the old cliché goes, is a marathon not a sprint. If both local teams set themselves with a good foundation, there will be plenty more opportunities to improve themselves come July. As a matter of fact you could see them acquire some serious players in February. Only time will tell how depressed this market will be. In the end, I predict the rich teams will just get richer. In New York that is a good thing.

Tags: New York Mets, New York Yankees