Smoltz Can Be a Difference Maker… In the Pen
By Mike Silva ~ January 8th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
The signing of John Smoltz was called a “luxury” by some after it was announced earlier today. If healthy, Smoltz can be a major factor in the American League East, but not as a starter. The Red Sox should use Smoltz the same way the Mets will use JJ Putz – as a second closer. If healthy, Smoltz can close the gap between the Yankees since their signing of Mark Teixeira.
It sounds like Smoltz still wants to be a starting pitcher. His age and health should have him think otherwise. The Red Sox already have a solid starting rotation: Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Bucholtz, and Wakefield. As a starter I doubt Smoltz could give you much more than Wakefield. Reality states that Smoltz is essentially a five inning pitcher. Each of his starts would require heavy usage on the bullpen. That’s to be expected from a fifth starter, but Wakefield can go longer, and keep you in the game. That is why Smoltz to the bullpen makes the most sense for the Red Sox.
The way today’s game is played, the emphasis on the bullpen trumps any effectiveness that Smoltz can provide in the back half of the rotation. Even last year Smoltz showed that he can dominate in short stints. Opponents hit .118 against Smoltz in the first inning during 2008, and .237 through the first time in the order. That could only be improved if he comes out of the bullpen, eliminating the need to pace himself.
An eighth inning of Smoltz and ninth inning of Papelbon might be the toughest six outs in baseball. This may be heresy but, if Smoltz was a closer his entire career, we might not be saying that Rivera is the standard for which closers should be judged.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out, but my money says Smoltz will be in the bullpen at some point. This move, if it pans out, very well could go down as the steal of the offseason. Theo Epstein strikes again.
January 9th, 2009 at 12:07 am
Mike,
That 2008 stats you cite are kinda meaningless, considering he pitched all of 28 innings last season.
From ’05-’07, Smoltz averaged between 6 and 7 innings per start. If he comes back healthy I see no reason to expect he cant do the same. And I don’t think Bucholz projects as one of the Sox top 5 starters next season – they also have Brad Penny. Bucholz is as good as traded or moved to the ‘pen.
January 9th, 2009 at 4:09 pm
“This may be hearsay but, if Smoltz was a closer his entire career, we might not be saying that Rivera is the standard for which closers should be judged.”
You mean “heresy” not “hearsay.” Look it up.