Johan Santana‘s walk to strikeout rate is the lowest since his early days as a youngster in the Twins bullpen. Seeing back to back games of more walks than strikeouts has started the rumblings about whether Santana is beginning the steep decline into his late prime. Although these are concerning trends, perhaps we are seeing Santana reinvent himself in order to preserve pitches and go deeper into games. One thing I am sure of is we are seeing him enter another stage in his career that will call for adjustments.

If you look at Brooks Baseball Santana’s average speed on four seem fastball (90.2) and two seam (89.4) versus his change (79.3) provide enough differentiation for the batters. His ball/strike ratio is still very strong in the 70 percentile range.

If you go back to his first year with the Mets using Texas Leaguer the differentiation is about the same even though his fastball is a tick lower (1 mph). I am not claiming to have the answers but here are two questions that come to mind:

1. Is Santana tipping his pitches forcing hitters to lay off the change, running up the counts, and putting themselves in position to sit on the fastball?

2. Rather than throw 100 pitches in 5-6 innings is Santana is he pitching more to contact and location? He has recorded an out in the seventh inning or later 10 out of 14 starts.

3. Is he unable to command his secondary pitches because of an injury or mechanics?

I am not a pitching coach, but it appears that Santana is learning how to win as he enters his mid to late prime. The velocity is not what will ultimately concern me, but rather the speed differentiation and location. If Santana throws 89 mph, but could break off a change with about 12 mph difference and locate it he should be fine. Earlier in the year he felt he was tipping pitches in that horrendous outing against the Phillies.

For what it’s worth the low walk to strikeout rate still hasn’t held him back with a 3.13 ERA. His 5 wins should be more 7 to 9 if the offense and bullpen supported him even a little bit the last few weeks. Yes, the advanced metrics (FIP, xFIP) tell a different story, but it shouldn’t be a surprise since each relies heavily on strikeouts. You can win without striking batters out, but have to be finer with your control and location. Is Santana someone that can do that? I think he can.

Should there be reason for concern? Yes, it appears Santana is entering another stage is in career that will require adjustments and that is always a tough position for a pitcher. On the flip side I am confident he is smart enough to understand and adjust just like all great pitchers do.

Tags: Johan Santana, New York Mets