Daniel Murphy Doesn’t Deserve 1B Job
By Mike Silva ~ March 19th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva, New York Mets.
After today’s game against Minnesota Daniel Murphy is hitting .133. First base, and specifically Murphy, were huge question marks coming into spring training. The Mets already will be short on power without Carlos Beltran, and the absence of Jose Reyes makes it hard to carry any subpar offensive players.
Joel Sherman made a great point in today’s 3UP by saying the Mets may be making Murphy into something he is not – an everyday first baseman. Maybe we were all fooled by his solid performance down the stretch in 2008, but I have said, just like Sherman pointed out today, Murphy profiles more like a Ty Wigginton type off the bench.
I don’t expect Ike Davis to get the job. We saw Fernando Tatis get exposed playing every day last year. Right now the Mike Jacobs acquisition looks more important each day as he could provide lefty power at first base. Would you take a 2008 type season (32/93/.247) from Jacobs?
Jacobs isn’t exactly mashing the ball either in the Grapefruit League (.200 BA), but at least he has the resume that Murphy doesn’t. With Tatis in the fold you can platoon against left handers which should help Jacobs as well. For his career he has an .830 OPS against right handed pitching. A Tatis/Jacobs split should be good enough if Beltran and Reyes return healthy. Remember you still have Ike Davis waiting in Buffalo. As for defense, I doubt Murphy is a big enough upgrade to justify the drop off in power.
There is still some time left for Murphy to turn it around. Maybe he is a slow starter, but he really needed to show the work he has done this offseason will pay dividends. I love Daniel Murphy and want him to succeed, but maybe we have to admit that Mike Francesa was on to something with the kid.
I still think he can be productive and valuable to the team, but not as the everyday first basemen.
March 19th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
Mike,
As usual, you make alot of sense. Moreover, if Murph becomes the starting 1B this year, he is just keeping it warm for Davis in 2011. Where does Murphy fit in as a LH 1B backing up Davis in 2011? It is called the minor leagues or traded from the Mets to an AL club. He would be superfluous.
March 19th, 2010 at 8:33 pm
Murphy Is better than Jacobs, Ike isn’t ready. Murph is unlikely to get worse, so the minimum .270 15-20 hrs and 90+ RBI is not going to hiold the team back, especially if he has a hot streak while beltran and Reyes are gone
March 19th, 2010 at 9:19 pm
The People’s Choice. The Mets made their decision over the offseason to go with Murphy. It would be stupid to give up on him because of a poor ST especially if Jacobs is the other option. They need to give him at least 100 ABs in the regular season or look like real jerks. Laroche or Tejada look better and better!
March 19th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
I think Jerry like Jacobs. He is going to make the team (surprised if he doesn’t) and will be at the very least a bat on the bench. Hearing Jerry say he “needs regular at bats” is a way to sneak him in the lineup. Murphy may be the nod on Opening Day, but the leash is very short
March 19th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
I would take a 32/93/.247 line from the 2010 Mets 1B, sure.
But what are the chances that Mike Jacobs will provide that? In his favor he has the fact that he’s done it before, albeit once. Against him is the fact that it was an obvious outlier season in his career and one he hasn’t remotely approached before or since.
2008 aside he’s been roughly a 17 – 20 HR and a 54 – 77 RBI player, which is therefore what I think is fair to reasonably expect of him and not much of an improvement over what we’ve seen Murphy do already for this team. Given Murphy’s seemingly superior fielding, is the slight power uptick worth it?
This is what the Mets got overall from the 1B position offensively in 2009 – 16/91/.283, which perhaps suggests that it’s possible to drive in over 90 runs with half as many as the 32 HR that Jacobs hit in his outlier season by instead hitting for a higher average than Jacobs ever has (except, to be fair, in his rookie season 30 game stint).
What does all this mean? I don’t know. I just know that to me there is no strong case for Jacobs or for Murphy and it makes me pine even more for that hoped for moment in the not too distant future when Ike Davis makes them both irrelevant.
March 19th, 2010 at 9:42 pm
Keep one thing in mind:
Jacobs career vs RHP: .830 OPS
Tatis career vs. LHP: .808
Combined you might have a very decent 1B.
Better question, what if Ike Davis put up an OPS over .800 his rookie year? We would be canonizing him. Can Murphy put up those kind of numbers himself? Doubt it because he doesn’t have the power. Of course, I haven’t gotten into the defensive argument, but I don’t think Murphy is good enough on D to make up for those kind of offensive numbers from Tatis/Jacobs
March 19th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
Tatis is a joke when he starts, and provides little range or aggression. He’s basically a sure-handed statue.
And he can’t hit regularly. He’s a power bat off the bench, rest a guy occasionally.
Murphy will certainly be ‘acceptable’ in the Mets lineup, as he fits with the rest of the group, if you don’t try to compare him to Albert Pujols. There is no rule that you HAVE to have a power player at first.
also, the Mets don’t really need more than the 15-20 HRs Murphy will provide. given of course that Beltran is back by May 1st. But power is not the 2010 Mets problem.
March 19th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Mike,
Your falling into the old Wilpon trap of let’s combine two players to make one great player. Doesn’t work with the pieces they use to achieve it. Back/Teufel and Dykstra/Wilson were able to achieve that because they complimented each other.
In recent years this has failed (a.k.a. Shane Spencer/Karim Garcia). Murphy is going to play himself out of this lineup and I think we’ll see Mike Jacobs take over the spot mid – May IMO.
March 19th, 2010 at 11:57 pm
Murphy is going to hit 15 – 20 HRs. and 90+ RBIs? Sounds like what many predicted last year; i.e., that Ryan Church would hit 25 HRs (remember him?). BTW, how many RISP did Murphy leave stranded earlier today. Oh, right, its spring training!!!!!!!!!!!!
March 20th, 2010 at 12:42 am
Mike, I have been saying the same thing since early in the offseason. I was a huge proponent of bring back Delgado, until his hip sidelined him, because I just don’t have faith in Murphy. In my opinion, the Mets are selling us a bag of peanuts disguised as diamonds. Murphy’s defense is suspect, he was caught out of position far too often last year. The Mets brass knows that many fans are gullible & want to see homegrown talent on the roster. Unfortunately, there are about 28 other first basemen that I would rather have than Murphy. Your comparison to Ty Wiggington is right on. In my own posts in metsmix.com, I have often classified him as a small market DH at best, a man without a position; which is exactly what Ty Wiggington is. My most pressing issue with Murphy, even before the loss of Beltran & Reyes, was that he will not put up the numbers needed from a player at a power position. I see him as a .260/15/60 player this year & with the Phillies, Braves & even Marlins, that won’t cut it. If Murphy is the Opening Day 1B, along with Beltran & Reyes starting on the DL, the Mets may find themselves in a position where they are too far back to catch up. They should have sold high on Murphy & got some pitching help. No matter what smoke they blow up the fan’s a$$ about him, I’m not sold. He’s no David Wright or Jose Reyes; great homegrown talent. In a fair competition, Jacobs would be the man. Unfortunately, this competition was over before it started. Just another example of upper management putting their paws in the day-to-day baseball operations. Great article, Mike.
March 20th, 2010 at 5:31 am
Chris Carter is the best hitting 1st base candidate in camp.