The Case For Signing Elijah Dukes
By Howard Megdal ~ March 17th, 2010. Filed under: Howard Megdal.
So we all know the drill: anytime a reasonably well-known player is released, a slew of articles appear all over the Internet, calling for Team X to sign him.
But the case for the Mets to sign Elijah Dukes, released this morning by the Nationals, is an especially strong one, I believe.
Let’s start with who the Mets have on hand. Among reserve outfielders, Angel Pagan already slots in as a starting center fielder until Carlos Beltran’s return-and his return is obviously uncertain until it happens. Regardless, Pagan is likely to be used as a starter for a decent portion of the season.
Beyond Pagan, there is Gary Matthews, Jr. Let’s compare the resumes of Matthews Jr. and Dukes, shall we?
Dukes, in what was widely considered a disappointing 2009 season, posted an OPS+ of 93. Matthews Jr., of course, last posted an OPS+ of 93 in 2007. In 2008 and 2009, he was well below that level.
And Dukes is just a year removed from a 127 OPS+. Did I mention that Dukes is also just 25, while Matthews Jr. is 35? Who would you bet on to post a better season in 2010? I know who my choice would be.
And while making the case that an outfielder is better than Gary Matthews Jr. should not be the sole reason to sign someone- the Mets would quickly be overwhelmed by outfielders- the reason Matthews Jr. was acquired to begin with was because of a lack of organizational depth at the position. So the mere presence of Matthews Jr., who likely cannot play, doesn’t eliminate the need for Dukes. It simply masks it.
I’d sure feel more comfortable with a better backup plan in right field as well, considering that Jeff Francoeur is a year removed from posting a 72 OPS+- 55 points lower than Dukes’s 2008 mark- while in 2009, Francoeur put up an OPS+ of, that’s right, 93. The same exact mark as Elijah Dukes, in other words (though to be fair, with significantly better defense).
In short, if Dukes is comparable to a starting outfielder on your team, and pretty clearly a great bet to be better than the backup outfielders on your team, it makes sense to get him.
March 17th, 2010 at 12:41 pm
Howard, this is St. Pattrick’s Day NOT April Fools Day.
First thing that caused me to raise an eyebrow:
” … regardless, Pagan is likely to be used as a starter for a decent portion of the season ….”
Why? If Beltran is back healthy in May, with Bay and Francoeur, why would Pagan be starting a lot of games? He is not going to spell Bay very much …. Francoeur is way better than Pagan …. Beltran may need more rest than normal but to say that Pagan is likely to be used as a starter for a decent portion of the season is just plain silly.
Now, on to Dukes.
The guy is a thug and for a franchise that is hell-bent on “character guys” in the club house, there is no way he ever wears Orange & Blue (and Black) … never.
Compare hi to Matthews …. compare him to FMart, compare him to Swoboda, Shamsky, Kingman and Staub …. he has a bad personal history, a bad reputation and his numbers have not been all that good on the field.
You lost some credibility with me on this one ….
March 17th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Agree on the credibility thing – I’ll now look at your future posts differently. I’m always amazed that people only root for the “laundry” (uniform) as Seinfeld once said. It wouldn’t bother you to root for this guy? It’s ok as long as we win?
Having a guy like this on the team would sap all enjoyment of the season for me. Would you be happy with at team of 9 Barry Bonds’ even if we won 140 games? I’d stop watching. And I’d rather watch of team of Mookie Wisons that loses 100 games (not saying that team would – love the Mook).
March 17th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
Hi Ron,
Briefly on your points:
1. If Beltran is back in May, then Pagan is starting all of April, and spelling Beltran for the rest of the season. That’s starting a lot of games, even in the BEST CASE SCENARIO. And Beltran could be out longer. Not sure if you remember 2009, but best-case scenarios don’t always happen.
2. Francoeur is “way better than Pagan”- what are you basing that on, exactly? In 2009, Francoeur posted an OPS+ of 93. Pagan was at 120. For their careers, Francoeur is at 92, Pagan is at 100. And Pagan can play above-average defense in CF, Francoeur can’t. So I’m not seeing it.
And we’ll agree to disagree on how important it is to have character guys in the clubhouse. I’d also suggest you do a quick Internet search on Dave Kingman and Art Shamsky before you include them in your list of character guys.
I do understand your point, Mark’s too, about prefering to root for players we like personally. I just don’t think fans get close enough to know these guys, and the team needs to be making decisions based on how players can help the team. Just my opinion. Sorry if having a different opinion than you causes me to lose credibility- that’s a pretty silly standard, frankly.
March 17th, 2010 at 4:32 pm
Dukes has rebuilt his personal life and professional career since joining the Nationals and has been a rather model citizen.
It’s certainly surprising the Nationals cut bait on him, but if the only thing holding the Mets back from signing Dukes is questionable character, that’s foolish.
He’s young, a talented hitter and not the worst defensive OF, and he won’t cost much.
March 17th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
I fail to see how signing a 26 year outfield who has a “questionable character’ would be a productive acquisition for any major market team. This is a guy who has a history of assault and battery and made death threats to the mother of one of his children. He was arrested for violent felonies and drug possession. He has a violent character, not a questionable character. Reducing this grown man’s poor decisions and behavior to being merely ‘questionable’ minimizes and trivializes the way he’s conducted himself. His behavior had been so atrocious Nationals had to hire someone to keep him out trouble and out of the slammer. And keep in mind the NATIONALS, the worst team in the game, released him. The Nationals. That in itself should tell you something. There is a reason why they did so.
March 17th, 2010 at 9:21 pm
If a last-place team releases someone, it could reflect on that person. It could also reflect on the team doing it.
Or do we think the trade of Scott Kazmir reflects more on Kazmir than the 2004 Mets?
March 17th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Howard, with all due respect, you did suggest something that you had to know would be largely rejected by the fan base.
As I just wrote in another thread — I reading and listening to you guys and respect your right to offer your opinions — this one to me just seemed to be so off the wall I could hardly hold myself back.
On your response to my earlier post above:
1. I get the point on Beltran and Pagan’s playing time. Pagan as a starter for “a decent portion of the season” doesn’t make sense to me … I guess it’s the interpretation of decent portion of the season — that would seem to indicate to me at least 81 games of half of the season …. if that happens, we need more then Elija Dukes and Andy Sonnanstine.
2. Agree to disagree — I like Francoueur …. he drives me nuts with his OBP but I like his glove, his potential, his arm and his basball instincts. Pagan had a great year last year, has been often injured and has little or no basball instinct. I have a fulltime job and do not have the time to dig theu all the sabermetrics stuff — I rely on my own two eyes and what I see is a complimentary player at best in Pagan and a raw talent in Francoeur — again, agree to disagree.
My selection of Shamsky was odd I agree — even stranger was Kingman …. I am a 55-year old Met fan and remember them well …. Kingman, Shamsky, Cleon Jones, Kevin Mitchell and others all had warts, but nothing comapred to Dukes.
Finally, sorry I struck a nerve on the credibility thing …. but I felt that way after initially rewading the post.
March 17th, 2010 at 10:05 pm
Thanks for the response. I hear what you’re saying- I am surprised that much of the fan base isn’t more concerned with the Mets acquiring talent than anything else. And there’s been some support.
But if the argument against acquiring Dukes is that the fifth outfielder, in your opinion, won’t play half the season, rather than that Dukes is not an upgrade at the spot- well, I don’t think you fill out a roster hoping that members of it won’t play.
March 17th, 2010 at 11:15 pm
I never said the fifth outfielder would not play half the season — not sure where you are getting that from. What I was referring to is the part where you stated that in your opinion Pagan is likely to be used as a starter for a decent portion of the season … used as a starter … that’s a lot different then playing in 81 games …. again, perhaps a mis-understanding.
I would certainly fill out my roster with people I’d want to play — but those who fill out a roster would not be expected to start most of the games …. no better example of that right now then Alex Cora.
I am also not sold on Dukes’ “talent” …. I listed a chronology of his off-field issues and early minor league issues with Tampa Bay in another thread …. I am baffled by anyone who reads this and feels that player would have a place on the Mets roster …. but, to each his own.
You keep writing — I’ll keep reading — and probably agree most of the time …. just not this time.
March 17th, 2010 at 11:56 pm
Dukes won’t help. The guy’s score on the daq test is now the record.
The previous record holder was a former NBA 3rd round draft pick who needed constant babysiiting while on a roster, washed out in about four months, but did score anti-daq points for having the good sense to have his goldplated Merced melted down for the cash.
However he lost those and more when he forgot to get out of bed that morning.
March 18th, 2010 at 10:33 am
Fair enough, Ron. A guy who posts a 127 OPS+ as a 24-year-old is talented. But we can agree to disagree.
March 18th, 2010 at 10:28 pm
I agree with Howard. This would be as close to a no risk signing as you could possibly get. If Dukes screws up, he’s out. But, Dukes could see this as his last chance and get his act together. Then you’d have a steal on your hands.
Personally, I watch baseball to… watch baseball. Sure, it would be great to root for a bunch of guys like David Wright and Carlos Beltran, but the reality is that any job or organization will have its share of people of questionable character or who rub you the wrong way. I just want the team to acquire as much talent as possible.