The Problem with Cano in the Clutch
By Mike Silva ~ February 7th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva, New York Yankees.
Moshe Mandel over at TYU did a great job earlier this week discussing Robinson Cano in the clutch. The premise of his piece is just because Cano hasn’t done well in the clutch throughout his career doesn’t mean the trend will continue. I would agree with Mandel if this was a one year scenario, but even advanced metrics doesn’t paint a pretty picture.
Over at Fangraphs they have a “Clutch” stat, which I talked about before the playoffs, that evaluates how much better or worse a player does in high leverage situations than he would have done in a context neutral environment. For his career Cano has been on the negative side, except 2008, where he was a 0.32. Ironically, 08′ was perhaps his worst year as a pro where he put up below league average offensive numbers.
How reliable is this number? Well, Derek Jeter, always Mr. Clutch, has 8 seasons in his career where he below average, including a negative total for the postseason. Since I don’t know much about the “engine” behind this number I can only take it at face value.
The issue with Cano in the clutch becomes huge because of the Yankees susceptibility against left handed pitching, and the lack of a true #5 hitter to protect Alex Rodriguez. Cano would be the perfect fit to protect A-Rod. He has great platoon splits, power, and hits for a high average. The issue has always been his ability to hit with runners on base. For his career he has an OPS of .689 with runners in scoring position, as well as decreased performance as the game gets closer. His career splits just don’t lie in this category.
We can cite small sample size, but if something is a yearly occurrence is it really a small sample anymore? Jorge Posada should do just fine in the #5 hole, but age regression is inevitable. That leaves Curtis Granderson as an option, but those lefty splits will make sure A-Rod tops his career high in walks come August. Again, Cano would be a perfect fit if not for the issues with run production. It looks like the Yankees will have to hope that Posada can be the first catcher since Carlton Fisk to produce at a high level at age 38 or older.
Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long has been working with Cano this winter. Perhaps some of the reasons for his struggles cited in the article, such as trying to pull the ball, are happening when there are runners on base. I am not saying this is just pressure, although that is a factor, but more along the mechanical lines.
Anyway, this Yankees lineup, filled with age, and a question mark in the outfield, needs Cano to have a similar season to what he produced in 2009. That includes improving his ability to hit with runners in scoring position.
Oh, and one last thing, the most clutch hitter on the 2009 Yankees was Johnny Damon. I know you’re sick of hearing about him, but I wanted to throw that out there.
