So while I am on record as preferring neither option to Jason Bay or Matt Holliday, I feel a lot better about the Bay deal after news came of Matt Holliday’s seven-year, $120 million contract yesterday.

Put it this way- I think the preponderance of evidence shows Matt Holliday to be a better fielder than Bay, while Bay has none of the split questions Holliday does (a career .808 OPS away from home).

All things being even, I’d take Holliday.

But now we know all things aren’t even.

Let’s call the money per season a wash, though Holliday is an extra Alex Cora more expensive, roughly.

Is three additional guaranteed years really worth the difference between the two?

I say no. Think about it this way: the Mets traded the right to Matt Holliday’s age-30 season for avoiding paying three years, $54 million for Matt Holliday’s age 34-36 seasons.

Now, a major caveat applies here: the fantastic Dan Szymborski was gracious enough to provide me with an advanced look at his ZIPS projection for Holliday. And if his projections come true, then Holliday will have a much easier decline than Bay.

For the life of Holliday’s deal, ZIPS projects his OPS+ numbers by year at: 143, 139, 137, 133, 129, 123, 118. His at-bats tell  another story- he’s at 539 by year three of the deal, 468 by year six, 422 by year seven.

Compare that to Bay, whose ZIPS projections have him at OPS+ of 136, 126, 122 and 112 over the four years of the deal. His at-bats project below 500 by year two of the deal, but with enough plate appearances to trigger the fifth year option.

So if Dan’s right, the Holliday deal will be better- though you’ll still have a marginal player on the books for longer with Holliday than Bay, if we assume a mid-thirties corner outfielder with a sub-130 OPS+ who misses 30-50 games per season is not an asset, particularly at $15 million-plus.

Ultimately, I think projecting mid-thirties outfielders has enough inherent difficulties that I wouldn’t want to be an extra 3/54 on the difference between the two. Of course, that’s coming from someone that didn’t want to bet on either of them.

Still, for the Mets to get a comparable hitter with significantly fewer years guaranteed was the way to go. After all, the biggest worry I’d have is if Bay ceases to be healthy- and if that happens, there’s a good chance his fifth year doesn’t vest. The Mets have some insurance against it there.

Holliday is a Cardinal for seven years. No doubt about it. That’s just too long for me.

Tags: Dab Szymborski, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, New York Mets, St Louis Cardinals, ZIPS