Holliday Contract Validates Bay Decision



By Mike Silva ~ January 6th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva, New York Mets, Offseason Speculation.

Count me surprised that Scott Boras scored a long term deal for Matt Holliday. All winter we were told by baseball people that Holliday would “max out” somewhere in the 6 year/$105 million dollar range. There was a thought the Red Sox offer, for $82 million dollars, was where Holliday’s market stood. Scott Boras didn’t get Mark Teixeira money, but he certainly scored what will be the biggest free agent contract this winter. It would have been embarrassing if Holliday signed for the same contract he turned down in Colorado.

According to Matthew Leach of MLB.com the Holliday deal is for 7 years and $119 million dollars. There is an eighth year option for an additional $17 million which vests if Holliday finishes in the Top 10 MVP voting in 2016. Additionally, and here is the kicker, Holliday received a full no trade clause. I have to think there was another team seriously willing to give Holliday a big contract, or what would have been the motivation for St. Louis to go that far.

Obviously an AAV of $17 million per year is very reasonable, and is only slightly more than Jason Bay. The issue I have is with the no trade clause and years. It leads me to believe this will become an albatross for St. Louis down the road. Remember, this isn’t the Yankees who can swallow a contract (as they did with Jason Giambi later in his career) and still improve the team. The Cards have Albert Pujols next year who will demand significantly more than Holliday. I am thinking 7 years, $210 million. The Cardinals better hope Holliday is every bit the player he was during the second half for a majority of the deal.

There were many questions about why the Mets elected to go after Jason Bay instead of the better player in Matt Holliday. Whether Bay or Holliday is better can be argued, but Bay’s contract is exponentially more club friendly than Holliday. It validates the Mets decision to go after the player that fit Citi Field, didn’t require a significant number of years, and has better home/road splits. Let me be clear in saying I believe Holliday will prove he is not a “Coors Field hitter”, but it’s a legitimate concern for any team giving out a long term deal.

Omar Minaya has more work to do, but so far you have to like how he handled the Bay negotiations, the bullpen moves, and not giving in to Bengie Molina’s demands. Ultimately I think he brings Molina and Carlos Delgado on board, along with a pitcher, to round out the roster.

On another note, Jason Bay pointed out that Omar kept contact with his representation daily. This is a tactic that Minaya and company used to successfully land Carlos Beltran in 2004. Perhaps the difficult summer taught Omar a lesson, and has him getting back to the basics that made him successful. Remember, one of the most important aspects of the GM job is to establish good working relationships with other clubs, agents, and players. That often can be the difference in successfully completing the deal. Baseball, just like any other business, is about people interacting. It appears Omar did a great job throughout the Bay negotiations, which is more than I can say for his colleague up in Boston. Of course, you can’t criticize a “genius” can you?

Omar still has a long way to go, but let’s at least acknowledge his success to date.

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