John Fennelly over at the Bleacher Report wrote a small blurb about the Mets having possible interest in Carlos Zambrano. Before we all go nuts and start the “rumor mill cries”, John never said they “will get Zambrano”, he said “they have interest in Zambrano” – big difference. During our initial “view of the offseason” rumor mill, Joe Demayo talked about the Mets interest in trading for a pitcher, and Carlos Zambrano was a person of interest for the Mets. This makes tons of sense as rumors have been flying about the Mets interest in trading for a starter, and forsaking the expensive second tier free agents.

I believe the availability of Carlos Zambrano is a huge red flag. Back in September I wrote why Omar Minaya should “stay away” if the Cubs come calling regarding Zambrano. This is a guy that doesn’t like to stay in shape, has declines in strikeouts and innings, and is owed $73 million through 2013. Zambrano is still young (he is only 28), so why do the Cubs want to trade someone who is locked up for his prime years? They probably are having the same concerns as me. Do they love Luis Castillo, who has been connected to the Cubs all winter, that much?

Perhaps trading Castillo has the Mets looking at Zambrano differently. With Castillo’s $12 million going back to Chicago, Zambrano is only costing them $24 million the next two years, or an average annual value of $12 million per year. This is the type of money that a Ben Sheets is asking for on the open market. Let’s face it, no quality pitcher will settle for anything less than $10 million a year for two years. The Mets would be getting a potential ace for a bit more than what Randy Wolf signed for in Milwaukee. What about the other two years? 2012 will cost them $18 million and 2013 is a vesting option so they may be only on the hook for about $54 million. Perhaps the Mets believe they could squeeze three quality years out of him and hope for the best year four and five.

The report suggests the Cubs asked for Luis Castillo and a young player. Would you do Luis Castillo and Fernando Martinez for Zambrano? If that’s the price I might have to reconsider my anti- Zambrano position. I still think Zambrano is a huge risk, but the Mets are not in a position where they could take a “no risk” proposition. Is it any guarantee that pitchers like Brandon Webb, Josh Beckett, or Cliff Lee will hit free agency next winter? Can the Mets outbid the big guys for any of them? Lee already is looking for “CC Sabathia”  money and years.

The Mets need a pitcher and would like to rid themselves of Luis Castillo. Zambrano would be a great #2, if healthy, behind Johan Santana. The caveat is Zambrano has a full “no trade” clause and, as Matt Cerrone pointed out, wants to stay in Chicago. Sometimes those things have a way of going away if teams want to make a deal.

This is a deal that comes with huge financial risk, but probably won’t clean out the farm system like acquiring a Lee or Halladay did. The Mets already rolled the dice with Bay, perhaps Minaya is going to put his Mets tenure on the line Vegas style. In the end, he may have no choice.

Tags: Brandon Webb, Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs, Cliff Lee, Fernando Martinez, Jason Bay, Luis Castillo, New York Mets, Omar Minaya, Roy Halladay