Mets Are in “No-Win” Situation
By Mike Silva ~ December 16th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
Now that the Yankees and Red Sox are no longer interested in shopping in the Bay or Holliday department stores the Mets are the “belle of the ball” for agents Joe Urbon and Scott Boras. After the recent news regarding the demands of Jason Bay, the Mets in a “do or die” scenario where they will be in no position but to overpay and take on a risky contract.
As much as I like both Bay and Holliday the rumored length of each deal is reaching uncomfortable levels. I was uneasy, but amenable, with the Mets going five years on Bay if it meant locking down the deal. Having a competitive team for the next 2-3 years is important because of Santana and Beltran entering their late prime. Now that six years may be necessary I am starting to think dealing with a complicated Boras negotiation is worth the risk.
In a vacuum, I think there is very little debate that Holliday is the better player. I believe he will prove the three months in St. Louis are not a fluke. If I am going to pay beyond five years, and with Holliday you will have to, then I tell Bay take the current five year offer or move on. I find it hard to believe there is another team that will reach that level for Bay. Perhaps he is sending a message to Omar Minaya that he will only play for the Mets if they overpay. In that case overpay for the better play – Holliday.
I still have doubts that Holliday is going to receive an 8 year deal from St. Louis. The only way I get into that stratosphere is with vesting or team options. You cannot pay Holliday 25 million plus for his age 36-38 seasons. I have more faith that Holliday will hold up for five years in comparison to Bay, but anything after that is a huge gamble.
The Mets need one of these players to complete their lineup. There is no starting pitching plan to turn too and, quite simply, the Mets are going to need a beefier offense to offset their rotation question marks. The debate is not if the Mets will overpay, but how much. This is what happens when you don’t develop a farm system.
If the Mets are going to compete in 2010 they need Holliday or Bay in their lineup. Unfortunately it now appears it’s going to cost more than imagined. Even if they land one, they may eventually pay for it in the long run. That is the price for short term success in 2010. They have painted themselves into a corner and don’t have another choice.
December 16th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Matt Holliday is the most overrated free agent I can remember. It kills me that everyone is buying into the hype and not looking closely at his splits. If they did, they’d see a huge difference in his production at Coors Field vs anywhere else.
in 1352 ABs at Coors Field, he hit .333 with 84 HRs and 307RBIs…
in 1884 ABs away from Coors (thats 531 more ABs) he has hit only .290 with 68 HRs and 285RBIs
His away numbers got a huge boost by hitting after the best hitter in the game…if you take away his time from StL, there is even a bigger drop off…and you know he doesn’t have any protection if he was hitting in the middle of the Mets lineup.
Holliday is only good for hitting about .280 and 25HRs. that’s it…he’s a nice hitter, but not worth what ever ridiculous contract he’s trying to get.
I’m not worried about trying to compete in 2010 as much as I’m worried about not screwing up the team in the long run (or more than it has been) just to appease load mouthed fans or to sell tickets or to save anyone’s job.
December 16th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
2010 is dead and gone. Why overspend on tis talent pool? Omar is looking for innings eaters? Why? What difference does it make. Will he sign innings eaters to 4 year contracts. Holliday is grossly overpriced. Bay will not be a difference maker. Wait til next year–with a new GM.