Dorkapalooza: The Next Wave of Executives?
By Mike Silva ~ December 13th, 2009. Filed under: Sabermetrics.
One of my favorite movies is “21″ where a bunch of MIT students count cards, make tons of money, a rip off their professor. Apparently MIT also has their hand in professional sports as they host a conference on analytics the last few years. Bill Simmons of ESPN affectionately calls the event “dorkapalooza” as there will be many aspiring young stat heads in attendance. Say what you want, but the guest list is impressive featuring an A-list of analytics experts, sports executives and coaches. Even my favorite owner, Mark Cuban, has been in attendance in prior years. We know how advanced metrics is a force in baseball, but it’s far less prevalent in the other three pro sports. Could this conference be the beginning of a hostile takeover in sports where executives now must be economists, mathematicians, or Ivy League graduates? I believe it’s going to happen sooner rather than later. What will result, however, is they will be exposed as complementary pieces to the puzzle and sports will eventually adjust itself and go back to a more advanced center position.
There is no doubt statistical metrics have played a huge part in advancing the game of baseball. Forget about how it’s added another tool to the front office, but now fans, media, and independent writers can sit at home and discuss the sport without access. Why do you need a press credential when numbers can be accessed by anyone? Even the high school kid who failed his chemistry regents can opine on WAR and why Jason Bay isn’t worth signing to a five year deal. The more people talk about baseball the better it is for the popularity of the sport. For all the value that advanced metrics bring, I have my doubts about academia running a professional baseball club. Isn’t the old saying those who can do and those who can’t teach?
A reader of the site asked me why I have an “anti intellectual position” on this topic. Although my writings can come across that way I really have no such agenda. I am the son of a mechanical engineer who can do these stats, and probably others, right with the best of them. Growing up around this stuff I have learned that running a business, and yes a professional sports general manager is running one, requires more than just linear thought. It involves developing relationships, selling your organization, and others, on an idea, and ability to judge people. There is no formula that can achieve these objectives and I have found out you are either born with this instinct or not. You can teach math, but you can’t teach people skills. After ten years in the private sector I am pretty sure of that.
Does that mean guys like Paul DePodesta don’t belong in the front office? No, you need that type of talent on your team. Any organization that doesn’t employ (and rumor has it there are two) is doing themselves a disservice. The key to any executive is having the ability to understand all angles and be the final decisive voice. That is why, in my opinion, I think Brian Cashman is a great general manager because you can tell he possesses the people skills and incorporates varied opinions into the equation. I saw a quote this week which stated “relationships” helped in the complicated three way deal for Curtis Granderson. Not numbers crunching, but relationships were important. If I were starting a team tomorrow Cashman might be one of the first people on my list because of his ability to incorporate many facets of baseball into his decision making.
I have nothing against advanced thought and metrics, but I would be careful before I put a DePodesta or Anthopoulos in charge of my team. Just as I would be careful to put the other extreme, i.e. Omar Minaya, in charge. Being an executive requires someone confident enough to have strong people around them, process orientation, open mindedness, and people skills. That combination is rare in life, much less in a small pool of individuals gathering at MIT. What probably will happen, like most fads, is we will see a wave of “moneyball” general managers come to power in sports, most will fail, and then the industry will adjust itself. Advanced metrics are here to stay, and that is a good thing, but how big a role the purveyors of such information play remains to be seen. Give me a good salesman everyday over the Ivy League economist. Time will tell whether the “Depodesta’s” of the industry can be front men. Eventually I predict their role in the front office will be complementary. It’s easier to run numbers in the background then being the “front man” for the entire operation. Almost like writing a research paper. Ironically, ESPN has a “research paper competition” as part of the conference. Probably appropriate since I believe that is where most of these guys are comfortable, and good at, when it comes to their role in business.
Be prepared for the next wave of executives in professional sports. Just like any other fad we have to accept it and learn going forward. No worries, I believe professional sports will survive, and thrive, because of it, but when the failures of these individuals become the norm, rather than exception, things will go back to the center as they always do. You can “count” on that.
