Don’t Lose Sight of OBP
By Mike Silva ~ December 9th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
I get criticized a lot for my penchant to write about “intangibles” and lack of use of modern statistical analysis. In reality I always strive for balance and never try to get too infatuated with one aspect of the game. This year I noticed such a gap in fan appreciation for the human side of baseball that I spent a great deal of time questioning their obsession with advanced metrics. Case in point was last night where I saw a fan “tweet” Austin Jackson’s BABIP during his 2009 season at Scranton. With all due respect, you have to watch Jackson to know what kind of player he is. Minor League Equivalency Calculators are great, but you have to be even more careful with numbers when you are talking about a young player still developing. At any rate I do embrace stats, even some of the advanced metrics, but one in particular is the boring old On Base Percentage. Not advanced metrics, but a number that we all agree is important.
What you ask? On Base Percentage? Aren’t you the same guy that advocated Jeff Francoeur for the Mets? Yes, and I still believe Frenchy is a valuable piece if on the right team. I loved Ryan Church, but for all his patience at the plate he still hasn’t harnessed his potential – a knock on him since his days in the Montreal/Washington system. Hearing dialogue about the Mets considering Corey Hart for their opening in the outfield makes me cringe. Hypothetically you can have three individuals in your lineup that could very well walk less than 100 times combined. That would probably put them, even if they hit well, around .300 OBP and the pitcher’s spot will certainly drop that down some more. As much as I love intangibles you are going to have an awful hard time scoring runs when more than a third of your lineup walks back to the dugout over 70% of the time.
I am fine with the decision to keep Francoeur and Molina, but that means other things have to happen. First, they better be sure Daniel Murphy can improve on his 2009 season and be more the player we saw in the second half which would translate roughly to 15 homers, 75 RBI, and an OPS a shade under .800. Even that would put him, at best, in the middle of the pack of MLB first baseman. Next, you need Beltran, Wright, and Reyes back at peak form. A down year by one and you add another hole to the lineup. Regardless there are “peaks & valleys” throughout the season so that next bat needs to be someone not named Corey Hart.
You get the feeling the Mets feel more confident outbidding for John Lackey than Matt Holliday. It’s still too early to tell and patience will pay off for Omar Minaya and company. That is why I believe Holliday is essential for this lineup, but obviously not a name you can guarantee. What second tier players are acceptable? Ironically Josh Willingham, the worst defensive player of the group, makes the most sense offensively. He has the patience that Rivera and Hart lack. I continue to like David DeJesus, but there is no indication the Mets are interested. Angel Pagan is a better choice than some of the names we have heard since he is inexpensive, plays good defense, and has a balanced offensive game – when healthy.
The Mets offense is constructed in a way which leaves them little room for error. Adding another low OBP to a lineup with Francoeur, and potentially Molina, is going to make runs hard to come by in 2010. Enough so that John Lackey and improved performances by the trio of Perez, Pelfrey, and Maine might just not be enough.
