Many in the media believe it’s unlikely the Mets will land Matt Holliday. Omar Minaya was given just as little chance to land another big free agent fish named Carlos Beltran in 2004.  I believe many are underestimating the Mets chances because, when you look at the facts, they may have a darn good shot.

First, there is St. Louis. Just yesterday Bernie Miklasz outlined the tough situation the Cards are in with Holliday. Sign him and risk surrounding him and Albert Pujols with subpar talent. Let him walk and they are back to having no protection for Pujols. An even bigger risk is having no money to resign Pujols when he hits free agency. The Cardinals have always been a resourceful organization that does more with less. I believe they will ultimately pass on Holliday and work on putting together a cheaper supporting cast.

The Yankees? I never count them out (see Teixeira), but there is too much talk of resigning Johnny Damon and pursuing Roy Halladay. We know Holliday wants the Yankees, but so far the feeling isn’t mutual.

That leaves Boston as the favorite to land Holliday. According to Jayson Stark most in the industry put Boston as the favorites, however Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports disagrees. According to Brown, who spoke to individuals in the Sox front office, they believe Bay is a better choice because of the success he already had playing in Boston.

So if St. Louis, Boston, and the Yankees are out of the equation who is left? Yup, Omar Minaya and the New York Mets. Holliday is just as perfect for the 2010 Mets as Carlos Beltran was for the 2005 edition. He fits their glaring need for a left fielder, power, and protection for Beltran. He won’t come cheap, but I don’t think he will get the 7 years and $117 million the Mets gave Beltran. If you remember Houston battled the Mets down to the wire in that scenario. The Yankees also lurked and turned down Beltran at $99 million. The Mets had to overpay in order to land the big fish. This time they may be the only one fishing. I see 5 -6 years between $85 and $100 million.

Holliday and the Mets makes too much sense. The Mets were so quiet on the Beltran front until the eleventh hour. They seem to be equally as quiet this time. It won’t be easy, remember Scott Boras is his agent, but the landscape is opening up where if the Mets want him they can get him.

Tags: Boston Red Sox, Carlos Beltran, Matt Holliday, New York Mets, New York Yankees, St Louis Cardinals