Perhaps the only bigger shock then the news the Mets will offer Jason Bay a five year deal was Mike Francesa and WFAN beating everyone to reporting it. By my count that is the first real piece of news that I have gathered from WFAN all year. According to the “Sports Pope” the Mets prefer Bay because he is better defensively and a better offensive fit for Citi Field. In any event I have started to process this move and have a few preliminary thoughts.

The defensive part is tough to judge. I haven’t seen enough of Bay to assess whether he is better than Matt Holliday. Defensive metrics say no, but I am not going to make UZR the final judge of the matter. It appears Bay’s throwing arm might be a big part of that equation. The blog Over the Monster cites Bay’s defensive limitations, including his arm, but gives him the benefit of the doubt by saying it could be due to the Green Monster. Even defensive metrics are kind to Bay earlier in his career.

As far as the theory regarding Bay’s ability to hit at Citi Field, it does appear that his power is to leftfield whereas Holliday might fall victim to Citi’s high wall and spacious gaps. There have been questions about Matt Holliday’s ability to hit at a high level outside of Coors Field. Bay played a large part of his career in Pittsburgh, not exactly a hitter’s haven, and didn’t show any adverse splits during his time in Boston. In other words, he isn’t a product of the Green Monster.

So if the offensive metrics check out why am I skeptical? First, a five year contract will bring him to age 35. There were some rumblings during the winter meetings that Boston has concern about whether Bay would hold up physically through the life of a multiyear deal. He has played 150+ games every year since 2004 so this is speculative at best. I wouldn’t put it past “Boy Wonder” Theo Epstein to leak this type of info in order to scare off teams and provide the Sox with a negotiating advantage. Nothing wrong with that, but let’s not use the Sox opinion as gospel.

It appears the Mets have done some homework here. Scott Boras’s comments about Holliday being able to play “in a big ballpark” make that much more sense after hearing the Mets priority is Jason Bay. He fits everything the Mets need in their lineup and probably could be snagged for less than Holliday at 5 years and $75 million dollars.

Matt Holliday would be my first choice, but I am not running the Mets. I said the Mets needed to land one of the three big free agent fish to compete in 2010 and Bay is one of them. The last time the Mets stole Boston property was in 2004 when they signed Pedro Martinez. The Sox didn’t believe that Pedro would hold up back then and they turned out to be right. Hopefully the Mets do their homework on this one because, if they are wrong, they may have a contract that will make them forget the years and money they paid to Luis Castillo.

I will leave you with one final thought: If Holliday is so much better then why are the Red Sox making Bay their top priority? Maybe Omar and company actually know what they’re doing on this one. The Mets need a power hitting outfielder and Bay fits that description.

Tags: Boston Red Sox, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Mike Francesa, New York Mets, Theo Epstein, WFAN