The Good and the Bad of Halladay
By Mike Silva ~ December 1st, 2009. Filed under: Offseason Speculation.
Alex Speier breaks down the risk of Roy Halladay over at WEEI.
He points out that pitchers who throw 900 plus innings between the ages of 29-32 typically see a drop off from 33-36 – which is the period Halladay will be entering starting in 2010.
Notable drop offs (50% or greater) were Bartolo Colon, Livan Hernandez, Charles Nagy, Frank Viola, Joaquin Andujar, John Tudor, Mark Langston, and Mike Boddicker.
There were exceptions such as Mike Mussina, Tom Candiotti (knuckleballer), Jack Morris, and Greg Maddux.
This is a great piece of analysis that shows the dangers of trading for Halladay entering his age 33 season. Could Halladay completely blow up? Sure anything can happen. I might get hit by a car today does that mean I should stay in the house? Even if Halladay drops to a more pedestrian 200 innings per season he is better than most pitchers in baseball. Here is something to chew on- are the odds of Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes pitching 800 innings the next four years any better than Halladay dropping 50% in productivity? I probably take Halladay staying healthy in that bet.
No doubt Halladay is a risk. Any pitcher in his late prime has their baseball clock ticking. There is another side to all this: his impact with the young pitchers that remain. Frank Russo has been talking about A.J Burnett lobbying for acquiring Halladay because of the positive impact Doc had on his career. Today Mark Feinsand reports this same story in the Daily News. Think of the load that Halladay and Sabathia will take off young pitchers like Hughes, Joba, McAllister, etc. It will take a tremendous amount of pressure off them having two aces at the top of the rotation. Also think about how they could learn from watching two of the best every fifth day. It’s rare that a young player gets to see a pitcher of Halladay’s caliber. With the player development philosophies of the modern game we may never see another for quite some time. The young Yankees would be benefitting from watching two of the games bulldogs.
There is obvious risk associated with Halladay. Just like there is risk that I will fall down the stairs today. Doesn’t mean I stop walking, just like it shouldn’t prevent the Yankees from taking the chance on Doc Halladay. If I had to bet he will be more Maddux ages 33-36 than Charles Nagy. There is probably no other pitcher that I would feel confident making that statement. Roll the dice – it’s worth the risk!
