Is Joba Sidney Ponson?
By Mike Silva ~ November 30th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
Last night Howard and I got into what seems our weekly discussion on NYBD Radio Hot Stove about Joba Chamberlain and whether he is someone to keep or make the centerpiece of a deal. You all know that I would trade Joba while his stock is still relatively high. Howard would not. I also proposed a straight up deal of Chamberlain for Josh Johnson which Howard declined as well. Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally had another take on Joba that I found interesting. Check out this tweet from yesterday:
Ponson career: 4.67 FIP, 91.5 MPH FB. Joba 2009: 4.82 FIP, 92.5 MPH FB. Ruh-Roh
Newman goes on to point out that Chamberlain’s velocity has dropped from the high nineties to the current 91-93 he hovered all season. We can only speculate if this is because of his move to the rotation, innings jump, or injury. Personally I believe that Joba’s career will suffer for what was short term gain in 2007. I wrote about this during the season.
If you compare both players in their first full season of just starting it looks like this:
Ponson: 4.71 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, 99 ERA+, and FIP of 5.39
Chamberlain: 4.75 ERA, 1.5 WHIP, 90 ERA+, and FIP of 4.82
To be fair Ponson never had Joba’s success in the minors, but he was also younger than Chamberlain when thrown into the rotation. From a build standpoint they are both around 6’1 and weigh 230 pounds. Big boys that probably could afford to get into better shape. I will leave the off the field troubles out of the comparison.
Again, if teams are still high enough on Joba Chamberlain to request him as the centerpiece of a deal you have to seriously consider it. The odds of him living up to his potential are no greater than the disappointing “average” career that I forsee. You can’t turn down Roy Halladay, arguably the best pitcher in baseball, for the pitching version of a Las Vegas bet. Remember, Ponson only had two full season as a starter where he was an above league average starting pitcher. It was right before he was to become a free agent (shock).
November 30th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
If you’re a baseball fan and you wouldn’t trade Joba for Josh Johnson, you’re crazy! Johnson is still young too.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
I guess I am not a baseball fan because no matter what I would keep Joba. I think comparing him to Sidney Ponson is crazy and I also think trading him for someone who is just coming back from surgery crazy as well. If Joba can not be a starter everone saw what he can do in the pressures of the bullpen even during the playoffs.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:12 pm
actually thats what being a fan is. they want to keep the homegrown guys like joba.
now the one thing its not is smart. u dont fall in love with ur prospects
but comparing him to sidney ponson is beyond ludircous. the anti joba stuff from mike is becoming as tired as his anti wfan stuff
November 30th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
My Twitter posts were kind of made in jest, but they do hold some weight.
Ponson was also a top prospect at one point with ace quality stuff who fell by the wayside.
I would personally trade 3 Joba’s to get 1 Josh Johnson. It’s an easy call.
November 30th, 2009 at 7:19 pm
the only ones who wouldnt trade joba for halladay are the super yankee fans who are in infatuated with their prospects
who thinks he will win half the games halladay will the next 4 yrs?
November 30th, 2009 at 9:28 pm
In his first full season starting, Greg Maddux had a 5.61 ERA in his first full season starting with a 4.50 FIP and a handful peripherals (K/9, K/BB, WHIP) that were worse than Chamberlain’s in his first full season of starting; therefore, Joba Chamberlain will be a better pitcher than Greg Maddux was.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:46 pm
While I would use Joba for Josh Johnson and not Roy Halladay. This is a horrible way of getting the point across. There are numerous pitchers who I could bring up right now like Matt did above with Maddux and I could say the same thing.
Come on man, do a little more research than that if you want to be considered credible.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
This is nonsense. Complete nonsense.
December 1st, 2009 at 2:16 pm
I love that “gosh, these two pitchers were both kind of fat” counts as quality analysis on this site. By that reckoning, Joba Chamberlain is also C.C. Sabathia, Sid Fernandez, and the entire 1999 Texas Rangers bullpen.
On Ponson: he was a top prospect, and then the Orioles inexplicably decided to put his arm into a woodchipper in his first two full seasons in the big leagues. If a team is dumb enough to have a 22-year-old throw *12* complete games in his first two big-league seasons, that team shouldn’t be all that surprised that said pitcher suffers from a series of debilitating arm injuries almost immediately afterwards.
So, just to recap —
Ponson’s first 2 full seasons in the majors: 430 IP and 12 CGs by age 23.
Chamberlain’s first 2 full seasons in the majors: 257 2/3 IP and 0 CGs by age 23.
December 1st, 2009 at 9:42 pm
Why on earth would Florida give up Johnson, 15-5, 3.23, 184 hits in 209 IP, 58 BB, 191 K, 1.158 WHIP, and not yet 26, for Chamberlain, who’s a fat toad by comparison?