We are just a little over a month away from the announcement of the 2010 Hall of Fame inductees. Here are my thoughts, and how I would vote, on some of the candidates.

Roberto Alomar – YES

Something tells me he will get in on the first try, but it will be close. Not sure if it’s the Hirschbeck incident, early thirties decline, or recent off the field scandals that will sway some voters. I think the presence of near misses like Dawson, Blyleven, and Jack Morris might cost him as well. Taking away the veterans committee selections you don’t see more than two players get inducted in the same year. If Blyleven and Dawson hypothetically get in than Alomar is out.

I would vote for Alomar even though he is short the magical 3,000 hits. He was the best second baseman in baseball from 1992 to 2001. The gold gloves make up for some years during that period (95, 98) that were less than Hall worthy offensively. If Bill Mazeroski is in than Alomar should be mandatory.

Andre Dawson- NO

The interesting thing about Dawson is his inclusion may open the door for compilers such as Johnny Damon and Bobby Abreu. He only had seven of twenty one seasons which I consider elite. You really need to stand out if you are an outfielder in my book. The defense helps, but it’s not enough. Some may point out the 432 homers in a non “juiced” era, but there are others that hit homers as well. The answer to Dawson in the Hall of Fame is no.

Bert Blyleven- YES

We all know where the sabermetricans stand on this one. Blyleven’s peripherals are talked about all the time when the topic of all time Hall snubs comes up. Anyone who can pitch until their 41, win 287 games, and have one of the best years of his career at the age of 38 deserves the nomination. For BABIP fans his 1989 season was not “luck induced” since the .278 BABIP aligns with many of the other top seasons of his career. I also don’t subscribe to BABIP being luck because I believe it’s more the product of good pitching. Oh, and one more thing, don’t forget the 3,700 strikeouts as well.

Jack Morris- YES

Another polarizing Hall of Fame candidate. His inclusion could open it up to Andy Pettitte at some point. Morris signature moment was his 10 inning gem in the 1991 World Series at the age of 36. The peripherals aren’t quite as good, but Morris, a right hander, spent the majority of his career with the short Tiger Stadium porch looming behind him. Some will say he played for good teams and that helped with the win column. If Catfish Hunter is in the Hall of Fame thanks to five good seasons than Morris should make it for 254 wins and postseason success.

Edgar Martinez- YES

I do not believe Martinez will make it this year. The real story with his candidacy is how the voters treat the first legitimate Hall of Fame Designated Hitter. For those that argue against the “purity of the game” when it comes to the DH tell me what league outside of the NL doesn’t employ the position? The answer is none. You can’t demonize a position that has become the majority. As for Martinez he is a no doubt Hall of Fame hitter. His production from 1995 to 2003 is right up there with all the all time greats. Even the move to spacious Safeco Field didn’t slow him down. There is one site that evaluates him based on an award called POP (Premium Offensive Player). A POP season is one in which the player has a BA over .300, OBP over .400, SLG over .500. Martinez has eight POP seasons for his career- more than Mickey Mantle. Every player with eight or more POP seasons is in the Hall of Fame with the exception of Barry Bonds who is not eligible as of this writing. PJ Ross of the Bleacher Report also points out that Martinez is one of five players who have had more walks than strikeouts (with at least 1200 or more of each) while hitting .300. The others are Babe Ruth, Frank Thomas, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Aaron, and Chipper Jones. I would vote for Edgar Martinez because the offensive numbers are too good to ignore. I agree with Ross that Martinez may become the modern day version of Jim Rice in the sense where it could take him 10-15 years before he is recognized.

Barry Larkin- NO

Larkin falls into the same category as Alomar when it comes to his production versus position. He is the first SS to be a 30/30 member and the 1995 NL MVP. The problem with Larkin, unlike Alomar, is that he never sustained a period of dominance. He always seemed to have a season that interrupted that string. He also played in an offensive era where other SS (Garciaparra, Jeter, Tejada) were top notch hitters. Maybe Larkin one day is voted in by the Veterans Committee, but right now I have to say he falls a bit short in my book. The consistency is the main factor into this decision. If he had compiled numbers at a higher rate I may have been more inclined to vote for him, but 2,3000 hits and a batting average under .300 is not quite enough in my book.

Summary

I would elect Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris, and Edgar Martinez. Realistically only two will get in this year and I predict we will see Blyleven and Alomar get the nod. I don’t think Alomar will be automatic either because of the off the field issues. If there were other strong candidates I predict Alomar would be forced to wait, but Martinez is not going to push a gold glove second baseman off a writer’s ballot. Morris will continue to stay eligible, but he needs to improve from his 44% of a year ago. That will be a strong indicator if he is going in the right direction. The most interesting candidate is Dawson who may get a boost from the anti steroids crowd. If a player can get 432 homers in a clean era some may want to elect him on the anti steroid era platform. Eventually I see Dawson getting in because of the steroid era, but just not this year. Finally, Mark McGwire will probably continue to be ignored because of the PED issue. I disagree with this because until the voters can quantify how PED’s specifically made him a Hall of Fame player you have to go by the record book. We will never know who used during the “steroid era” and to just pick on those who were caught is unfair. McGwire doesn’t get in, but he is a Hall of Fame player in my book.

Tags: 2010 Hall of Fame Inductions, Andre Dawson, Barry Larkin, Bert Blyleven, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire, Roberto Alomar