12:46 PM: Update- both the incomparable Tim Dierkes at MLBTradeRumors.com and T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com say this deal isn’t happening. I will now purchase a t-shirt with the words “I was present at Thomas E. Dewey’s Inauguration!” on the front of it, and an orange and blue “Millwood 34″ on the back.

From the folks that brought you Dewey Defeats Truman comes a report that will hopefully turn out truer: a three-way deal is being discussed that would land Kevin Millwood with the Mets, Luis Castillo with the Cubs and Milton Bradley with the Rangers, says Phil Rogers.

Let’s analyze what it would mean for the Mets- short answer is, very good things.

Make no mistake about it- Millwood is not likely to be a top-flight starting pitcher. He is, however, likely to be a pretty fair starting pitcher, and that will be useful for a team with a potential scarcity of them. I don’t love Millwood long-term, with a K-rate that dropped a full strikeout per nine last year (from 6.7 in 2008 to 5.6 in 2009). His ERA was also artificially low based on BABIP- his 3.67 would likely normalize in 2010 to more like 4.50.

But that fails to take into account that he’d be moving from a tremendous offensive environment in Texas to a more pitcher-friendly one in Queens. He’s also signed for just one year, and with a likely 2010 output even with or ahead of  free agents like Jason Marquis and Joel Pineiro, Millwood represents a far better choice, since he doesn’t require a long-term commitment.

Now, about that contract- it is for $12 million. But Luis Castillo, coincidentally enough, is owed $12 million over the next two years. As I have been saying for a while, Castillo is a sunk cost. Why continue to pay it for a player who, even if he hits as he did in 2009, will kill you in the field? For the same amount of money, the Mets would get a reasonably good starter in Kevin Millwood.

Needless to say, the subtraction of Castillo itself makes Millwood, a ground-ball pitcher, more effective in 2010- assuming they field virtually anyone else at second base. (This strategy doesn’t work, of course, if the Mets fail to field a second baseman.)

So Mets fans should hope that this deal, unlike the rumored one that would have netted Lyle Overbay, comes to fruition. It prevents the team from investing in pitching mediocrity, opens up second base for a competent fielder, and potentially provides significant upgrade over the 2009 roster in terms of likely 2010 performance. Kudos to the front office for thinking creatively on this one.

Tags: Chicago Cubs, Kevin Millwood, Luis Castillo, Lyle Overbay, Milton Bradley, New York Mets, Texas Rangers