Are There Red Flags on Lackey?
By Mike Silva ~ November 11th, 2009. Filed under: Offseason Speculation.
Joel Sherman quoted an AL GM this morning who wondered “if the Angels tepid interest in John Lackey is a red flag for prospective buyers.” Earlier in the offseason we have heard about the Mets concerns about offering John Lackey a multiyear deal. This is the same type of talk that followed A.J. Burnett last winter.
During the show Howard and I always talk about how strikeout rate is a good first indicator of negative downward trends for a pitcher. In the case of Lackey he has dropped about one K per nine innings since 2005, but not enough that it would concern me. As a matter of fact he has been absolutely consistent the last three years averaging 7.2, 7.2, and 7.1 respectively.
What about luck? His ERA has jumped from his 19 win season in 2007 to just a shade under four. In 2009 his FIP matched up with his actual ERA and has consistently outperformed ERA throughout his career.
The only red flag has been innings as Lackey has failed to reach the 200 inning mark since his career high 224 in 2007. He has been plagued by some injuries, but it doesn’t appear to be affecting his performance when he pitches. I do believe that Lackey needs to provide innings if he is going to justify a 5 yr/$80 million dollar deal. If the doctors give him a clean bill of health then he probably is worth the risk. What he can give you the next three years would be worth some dubious performance in years four and five.
This all started because of LA’s lukewarm negotiations. Remember this is the same team that lacked aggression with the Mark Teixeira negotiations so you can’t necessarily use that as an indictment on Lackey’s health.
