Jeter, GG, UZR, WAR, and the MVP
By Mike Silva ~ November 11th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
It was a terrible day for advanced metrics as the AL Gold Glove winners were announced. Two Yankees, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter took home much deserved hardware. Jeter is an interesting case because this year he debunked historical trends and performed well defensively both on the field and according to UZR. It was the work of a personal trainer on Jeter’s agility that many credit for the turnaround. You see it was Jeter, not the numbers, which drove the production. Anyone who watches the Yankees daily knows Mark Teixeira is just as deserving of a gold glove. Don’t tell that to the readers of fangraphs though because according to UZR Miguel Cabrera, Russell Branyan, and Paul Konerko are all more deserving of the award.
Look I know the voting is not perfect. I don’t have to remind you that Rafael Palmeiro won the award in 1999 when he spent a large portion of the season as a DH. There are also writers who vote against players because of bias and allow offense to sway them in the gold glove voting. Just like with the MVP the gold glove is a subjective award and I am more comfortable putting it in the hands of writers who spent the summer watching baseball and talking to industry officials. I think the bias are rare and often come out in the wash in the final vote. I criticize the mainstream media for a lot of things (more so radio then newspapers), but the hate against the MSM writers reeks more of jealousy. Just because you went to an ivy league school, can run some numbers, and create a graph doesn’t mean you have the final answer or should be covering a major league baseball team. I often am amazed at the thought process because many seem to lack historical perspective and I even question how much baseball they actually watch. The snobbery and lack of people skills, even during internet discourse, convinces me that very few of you belong in a big league clubhouse. That doesn’t mean all of you, but some give me that impression.
I have nothing against UZR, WAR, FIP, or any other of these advanced metrics. The difference between me, and many of the SABR fans, is that I try to use it as part of the equation and not the entire pie. It’s a metric, not a cult, and should be used as such. This is especially true with UZR which historically tends to be inconsistent even for the best fielding players. I would have loved to see how kind UZR was to Ozzie Smith, Mike Schmidt, and Keith Hernandez back in the day. I am sure we would have someone argue that Mex was below average at first.
The MVP Debate – Again
We all know the controversy that was caused back in August when I declared Mark Teixeira my choice for MVP. I did add a disclaimer that I reserved the right to change my mind because, after all, there was six weeks left in the season. Lo and behold Joe Mauer led his Minnesota Twins to a great comeback and took the AL Central. This without his main protection in the lineup – Justin Morneau (better defensively than Teixeira according to UZR as well). I think it’s fair to say that Mauer deserves, and will win, the award based on his performance and position.
Throughout this discussion there was another name that would often come up – Derek Jeter. The Captain was robbed in 2006 of the MVP award. It was probably one of the rare times in Jeter’s career where he was underrated. Since we are again at war over WAR I wanted to see Jeter’s value versus the probable AL MVP. Ironically Mauer is only worth less than one win share over Jeter. Would it be crazy to say that Jeter should be the MVP? Of course not. I still think the dynamic of offense/defense that Teixeira brought to the Yankees is equally as important as the season Jeter had. You could go one step further and say that Jeter deserves it over Mauer since his team won 103 games and the Twins won thanks to the luck of playing in the AL Central. By all accounts the Twinkies were a mediocre team in the right spot- something they proved by their subpar performance in the ALDS.
One last thing on WAR. According to the stat Ben Zobrist is worth more win shares than Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, and Chase Utley. Maybe he should win the award. Nothing against Zobrist, he did have an outstanding year, but he is no Albert Pujols at the plate. Remember, you can’t just use the numbers when it convenient for you. It’s about how you use it not when you do. It’s time to add some common sense to your discourse – please.
November 11th, 2009 at 9:13 am
I suspect sometimes that the mainstream media often forms a perspective and opinion on how things are, and goes with it. They don’t want to think hard about these things, and don’t want to change.
Derek Jeter is ‘clutch’ and awesome. etc etc. The Fox/ESPN announcers often resort to these talking points, irrelevant to if/how they matter to the game. The same with the writers. If they catch a whiff of something that allows them to reiterate a point they’ve made a billion times, they jump at it. This goes for a trade rumor, even more so if the rumor matches what they think a team should do. If they’ve written the Mets should trade Castillo, if they see Omar talking to another GM, and hold up a single finger (for Castillo’s uniform number) that’s enough for them to write “Minaya looking to deal Castillo”. It seems like they have their own agenda.
November 11th, 2009 at 10:09 am
stat geeks will turn the numbers around when they further their own interests.
in no planet is ben zobrist the mvp
November 11th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
On Mauer vs Jeter:
“the Twinkies were a mediocre team in the right spot” doesn’t support your general theme. If the team was mediocre, but Mauer was able to carry them to the postseason- doesn’t that make him more valuable rather than less valuable?
On WAR vs MVP:
That is definitely a complex thing, looking at wins over replacement versus the true value of a player to their team. I would say WAR is a legit but junky statistic for that purpose. The reason why is pretty clear. If you want to perform well in baseball, you have to do things in bunches. 9 hits in a game gets you just about nothing if they’re 1 per inning. Most teams would rather have three position players expected to have a value of 6 extra wins, plus a bunch of replacements- rather than have everyone have a value of 2 extra wins (assuming costs were equal). If you concentrate your talents in hitting, your team does better. Defense is a bit different, as bad defense at certain positions can put a damper on all defensive efficiency (negative covariances, rather than positive- except for double plays).
So how does this link back to Pujols and Zobrist? Basically that the hitting value of a player, in real terms, is a commodity that you usually want to be as concentrated as possible. Or, in other words, WAR is a reasonable stat for helping determine salary worth (it takes into account scarcity pretty well) but it’s a bad stat for determining actual value to a real team (because it lumps hitting and defense together, which have different externalities).
November 11th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Kudos B N
I think you articulated the WAR debate perfectly. I have nothing against these type of metrics, actually having Vince Gennaro on the show tonight to discuss “Diamond Dollars” I believe building a team is balancing what is good for the on the field product and business. Thanks for the great discourse!
November 12th, 2009 at 6:08 pm
FanGraphs ignores my defense because I’m a catcher. When WAR is calculated they ignore my above average caught stealing percentage among other calculable stats for the position, and of course they ignore my game calling and overall leadership. Imagine Minnesote without me. Are they even a 75 win team?
And, “in defense” of my boy Benny Z, please don’t just throw him under the bus in your last paragraph if you’re not going to explore his ’09 campaign. Sure he was a first time All-Star this season and actually this was the first year he had more than 200 ABs, but is it possible that the value he supplied the Rays at 2B/RF combined with his .297/.405/.543 at the plate was worth more than Albert Pujols’ league average defense and his .327/.443/.658? The voters have to try to ignore other years performance when voting on 2009 awards.
Sure, if I’m choosing who is more likely to put up a better 2010 between Pujo and Zobrist that’s a separate issue, but when giving out an award recognizing the greatest ‘value’ of all 2009 performances Zobrist was right there.
My .365/.444/.587 at catcher still was the most valuable performance in baseball in 2009, but Benny Z deserves some type of award. He probably won’t get a Silver Slugger at 2B even though I could make argument Zobrist and a replacement level 2B would have been the best 2B combo of any team, but I wont get into that because I’m Joe Mauer and I don’t want to sound like some FanGraphs fanboy.
November 12th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Joe
How did they calculate the sign stealing you performed?