Buy Low: Tim Hudson?
By Mike Silva ~ October 14th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
You probably read the recap over at Metsblog regarding the possibility of Tim Hudson being a free agent this winter. The Braves and Hudson hold a mutual option for $12 million dollars this offseason. You already are hearing rumors Atlanta will be seeking to dump the salaries of either Derek Lowe or Kenshin Kawakami. I would be shocked if the Braves pick up that option.
Hudson is coming off Tommy John surgery and actually saw his strikeout rate increase in the 42 innings pitched late this season. His 6.4 K/per nine innings was the highest since 2003 when he finished fourth in the Cy Young Award voting with Oakland.
I spoke with Howard during yesterday’s show regarding the possibility that John Lackey would cost upwards of $80 million dollars along with a five commitment. He believes the Mets should pass on the high priced free agents. Players like Rich Harden, Jarrod Washburn, Erik Bedard, and Randy Wolf all come with issues and won’t be that much less expensive. I am not sure if they are the answer either. Would you take a chance on Hudson?
His peripherals indicate that his performance was not based on luck. As a matter of fact, the .335 BABIP could mean he was a bit unlucky. I didn’t see enough of him to analyze his performance, but command could be an issue coming of TJ surgery. That would lead to fatter pitches and higher BABIP, although his walk rate was only a tick higher post surgery. As a matter of fact it was better than some of his early days with Atlanta. His ball/strike ratio didn’t seem out of whack either
Personally I think the Mets need to spend money on a pitcher who can guarantee innings behind Johan Santana. Bringing in Hudson is a good idea, but as a low risk/high reward candidate. He could turn out to be that #2 behind Santana, but I wouldn’t want to go to Vegas with that bet. I still think the best plan is to invest in someone like Lackey, accept the risk of the back half of the contract (i.e. Pedro Martinez), and sign someone like Hudson with the expectation that health might make him no better than a fifth starter. In other words expect the worst and hope for the best. You can do that with your #5, but not your #2, especially with Santana coming off elbow surgery.
