Figueroa 2010: The Right Choice
By Howard Megdal ~ October 5th, 2009. Filed under: Howard Megdal.
Here’s what we know about 2010 in New York: Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey should be pitching, and David Paterson should go spend more time with his family.
But while the Mets ponder the pitchers they should use to fill out the rotation, with John Maine, Oliver Perez, Jon Niese and Fernando Nieve among the prospects for 3-5, two things unites them all: they have upside, with varying questions on whether they will be healthy or effective enough to reach it.
So while the circumstances seem to dictate acquiring a pitcher with a track record of both success and durability, the traditional candidates are likely to be expensive, difficult to acquire via trade, or unlikely to fit the bill.
Hopefully, the Mets will realize they have such a pitcher already. He pitched on Sunday: Nelson Figueroa.
Don’t believe me? Let’s take a look at the numbers.
In 2009, Nelson Figueroa pitched to a 4.09 ERA for the Mets in 70 1/3 innings, 24 walks 59 strikeouts. That’s a walk rate of 3.1 per nine, a strikeout rate of 7.5 per nine.
Compare that to John Lackey, likely the most expensive alternative on the free agent market. Lackey walked 2.4 per nine innings, struck out 7.1 per nine innings, with a 3.83 ERA. But Lackey pitched 176 innings. No comparison, right?
Well, Figueroa also had another 115 stellar innings at Triple-A, pitching to a 2.90 ERA. Adjust that to major league equivalents (thanks, Minorleaguesplits.com!) and Figueroa’s MLE ERA was 3.72.
Let’s go ahead and add his Triple-A MLE numbers to his major league numbers to get a truer sense of his 2009. We’ll do the same for Lackey, who had 9 2/3 innings at Triple-A in rehab starts:
Figueroa: 185 1/3 innings, 3.86 ERA, 2.7 walks per nine innings, 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings
Lackey: 186 innings, 3.80 ERA, 2.4 walks per nine innings, 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings
Now, you’d probably give the edge to Lackey, especially taking league into account.
But what if one of these two can be had for a one-year deal, and the other costs five years, $80-90 million? Does that change your thinking? Especially if the guy you need to sign long-term has had injury issues each of the past two seasons?
I know there are people who disagree with me, but I am extremely hard-pressed to buy into the idea of a Quadruple-A player. Nelson Figueroa is coming off of a season where he pitched quite effectively at both Triple-A and the major leagues. He’s stayed healthy while pitching, in essence, year round for the past few years. He can also pitch out of the bullpen, making him a perfect candidate to be an effective swingman, and should Nieve/Niese fail to impress in the spring, or Maine/Perez fail to rebound from injury-plagued 2009, he’d be a strong candidate as a starter.
Throughout Figueroa’s career, there has been this disconnect between what he believed he was capable of doing and the response from the major league club when he got chances to pitch in the major leagues. Occasionally, this was despite his success- witness his 3.94 ERA with the Phillies in 2001, or his 3.31 ERA with the Pirates in 2003. Both occasions, particularly the latter, were dismissed as small sample size, yet his 5.72 ERA from the Pirates in 2004, in 28 1/3 innings, was supposedly proof positive that he was merely a Quadruple-A pitcher.
Now the Mets have a pitcher who has a 4.28 ERA in 115 innings over 2008-2009, the versatility to pitch as a starter or reliever, and who grew up as a Mets fan and belongs in New York. (This is not a reason by itself to keep him, but it doesn’t hurt to have some goodwill with fans, either.)
Figueroa pitching in 2009 was supposed to be a short-term story born of necessity. Figueroa in 2010 should get a chance to continue pitching for the New York Mets, because the evidence on the stat sheet says so.
October 5th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Hmm. I agree Figueroa has deserved a shot. I’m just not sure it’s the best option for the Mets. Your numbers do show a lot though.
Lackey doesn’t feel like the answer to me, but there might be other guys that fall in the middle, that might be better than Figueroa and might be reasonably priced.
I think Figueroa might be a sell-high type guy right now. There seems to be too much of a ‘hope we get lucky’ feel to keeping Maine Healthy, Perez rebounding, and Figueroa being for real. Pat Misch as well. Then again, maybe if the Mets had brought Figueroa up early, instead of all these other botched experiments back in May and June, maybe they wouldn’t have finished 70-92.
Then again, Niese very well may be ready. If Figueroa does indeed struggle in spring/April, Niese may be ready to go. I don’t know if it’s the right answer, but Figgy definitely deserves to at least be considered by management. If they go another way, I hope he finds his way onto a staff somewhere.
October 5th, 2009 at 4:23 pm
I’d like to see Figgy get his shot. He’s done everything a pitcher needs to get a shot. I think he can be an effective back of the rotation pitcher. Not sure, if its here but if its not I’d like to see the Mets let him do that somewhere else. It’s his turn.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I agree with you. I do hope they consider him. I would love to see him, back. If they have given others a chance, even when they don’t deserve it… WHY NOT with him? But I’ve been so surprised with METS MANAGEMENT that I should not be surprised if they decide to do the opposite.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
If the Mets pick up another ace that would make sense, but the staff looked very good at the end of the season. With another ace they will need 3 more starters.
And I feel that every one of them should have a chance to make the team in ST. But without another ace they will need 4 more starters, And I feel that within the group that they have, they do have the talent right now on the club.
They are Fig, Misch, Redding, Maine. Look how good they was in September.
And of course Niese, Niese, along with Pelfrey – Perez
From those eight starters, they can get 4 good ones.
October 5th, 2009 at 6:57 pm
Nelson Figueroa became part of the Mets starting rotation on August 25 filling in for Johan Santana. In his 8 starts, he went 2-6, averaging 6+ innings per start. The Mets scored a total of 11 runs in his six losses. In 50.1 innings, he struck out 44 and walked 16, with a 3.28 ERA. If you eliminate his Sept. 17 start against Atlanta, Nelson Figueroa, in 7 of his 8 starts, pitched 45.1 innings, struck out 40, walked 14, with a 2.38 ERA. After the 2009 World Series ends, Figueroa becomes a free agent. He’s made it clear, even in postgame interviews, that he’d like to pitch for the Mets in 2010 and beyond. It won’t cost the Mets an arm and a leg to get, what Ron Darling and others have called Figueroa’s rubber arm, pitching at CitiField. He can throw at least 110 pitches every five days. He’s called himself the Mets’ Geico…low cost insurance. Sign him Omar. It won’t cost you much to sign him, but it will cost you if you don’t. As Jeff Wilpon said today, Omar and Jerry must step up in 2010, emphasizing “must.” Step up and sign Figueroa for 2010…a Step in the right direction.
October 5th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
There we go..Hdarvick have said with the exact numbers. Haha I luv that Met’s Geico thing… so funny.
October 6th, 2009 at 12:46 pm
I am likely in the minority but I do not think the Mets are desparate for another arm. After 30 plus years of cheering on the Mets I have become a bit cynical, but of the issues associated with this team, paying big dollars for a “#2″ pitcher is not money well spent. I think Maine rushed back before his arm was strong enough and the Mets were not mature enough to have patience and slow him down. On Maine’s behalf, as is the case with Reyes, the Mets could have made it publicly clear when they expected the player back and not left the player hanging out to look lazy or uncommitted. As stated previously on these pages, Pelfrey was not that horrible. The Mets had to have the worst middle infield defense (range and turning DPs) in baseball. Castillo has no range, no arm, and is routinely lazy and disinterested on the field(the Castillo & Perez contracts are reason alone for Omar to be fired). Get Reyes back and a 2B with average to above average skills and Pelfrey looks much better. Yes, he doesn’t deal with adversity well but the whole Mets rotation had a lot heaped on them in 2009. That leaves Niese, Nieve, Figueroa, and Perez to fill out the last 2 spot. Of these four I have the least confidence in Perez. Good thing Omar bid against himself and got Perez for only $12M/yr.. A guy like Joel Pinero or Randy Wolf for 1 yr with an opton for the second year (wishful thinking?) would be good, or even take a chance on a high risk high reward guy like Harden, Bedard, or Sheets if they can be had for 1 year at a reasonable cost. Then use Figgy as the long man and send Niese and Nieve to AAA until Perez once again proves he sucks and comes up with an injury so one of the “N – men” can up from AAA. But no big dollar pitchers are worth foregoing a quality LF or 1B with power and a league average or better catcher. I’d rather offer Putz arbitration (if healthy) and sign him for $5M to bolster the Pen than give out a 3 -5 year $15M/yr contract to any of the free agent pitchers.