Only in the land of the Mets could a trade like Ryan Church for Jeff Francoeur light up the internet. I was waiting for someone to compare it to Kazmir/Zambrano. This trade doesn’t help the Mets much today, surely doesn’t hurt, and may just work out in the long run.

I thought Ryan Church had 25/90/.280 potential as an everyday player. The first six weeks of 2008 validated that claim. Unfortunately, the concussion incident threw his season into turmoil and he has never really been the same again. That is not to say that he can’t, but he showed no indication of returning to his 2007 Washington form, much less, the projections that his early 08′ success created. Earlier in the week I mentioned Church as one of the veterans that might fetch you something of value. Obviously, it wasn’t going to be a prospect (i.e. Milledge) due to his subpar numbers, so Omar elected for a change of scenery trade. It’s the ultimate no harm/no foul situation. Unless you believe that Church will realize his potential in Atlanta and torture the Mets 19 times a year. Hard to tell on the former, but the latter is always possible. In the end I am not sure Church was ever going to make it here, especially since the organization wasn’t thrilled with his game.

Am I a fan of Jeff Francoeur? No. He doesn’t get on base, strikes out too much, and has lost his power numbers. If you live by the OPS+ bible, than his 2005 and 2007 seasons are the two upside seasons to hope for. I wouldn’t discount his age and defense. I saw all the UZR ratings, and if you watch both players, Church has better range than Francoeur; I don’t need numbers to know that. I don’t necessarily buy the +/- system and don’t believe he will take many wins away in RF. The one reason I think this trade might work: Jeff Francoeur is an asset. His age and upside could make him a piece to a bigger deal down the road. Obviously not this summer, but in the offseason. In the perfect world he plays well and fits in as a nice and relatively inexpensive complementary piece.

I get criticized for using my eyes and not enough numbers to make opinions. Therefore, I researched Francoeur at Baseball Reference. He was compared statistically to Michael Cuddyer and Xavier Nady. Through age 24 names like Harold Baines, Willie Davis, Chet Lemon, Lloyd Moseby, and Ellis Valentine. None were stars, outside of Baines, but each was a solid member of a big league lineup. You have your busts in the statistical comparison group like Butch Huskey, Mark Carreon (amazing how the ex Mets come into play), Kevin Mench, and Junior Felix. Even those guys had a productive season or two. I didn’t get into how Francoeur wants to play here and sometimes that helps with those intangibles such as focus, desire, and passion. All things that can improve a player. New York often has adverse effect on players, but there are just as many instances where it elevated their game.
Both SNY’s Ted Berg and Sam Page at Amazin Avenue had great pieces about why they don’t like this deal. I can’t dispute their concerns, but I think it’s a harmless enough deal that we can look at much of the upside. Remember, the Cameron/Nady deal was not one that many, including myself, liked when it happened. In the end, Nady had a nice half a season with the Mets and fetched them Oliver Perez. You could argue that they missed his right handed bat in the playoffs.

Obviously we don’t know if Francoeur will have the same impact as Nady. Doubt we will learn that this season. I believe he can be a solid # 7 hitter that adds depth to a good lineup. To boot, he probably will do just fine, maybe above average, navigating right field at Citi. So sit back, relax, and join me tonight (I will be at Citi) in watching the beginning of the Jeff Francoeur era in right field.

Tags: Atlanta Braves, Jeff Francoeur, New York Mets, Ryan Church