Set Expectations for A-Rod at Wait-and-See
By Howard Megdal ~ June 22nd, 2009. Filed under: Howard Megdal.
There is much hand-wringing over Alex Rodriguez, his .213/.371/.456 batting line, and the eight-plus years remaining on his contract. It is understandable, of course: for the kind of money the Yankees are paying A-Rod, more was expected. These are supposed to be the seasons that justify the money A-Rod will be making in his forties, when any baseball actuarial table supposes he won’t be nearly the player he has been until now.
It is reasonable to assume that even if he continues to play at his current level, that batting line will get better. A-Rod is hitting just .198 on balls in play, well below league average of about .300. How much of that decline is luck, and how much is a change in how hard e is hitting the ball, is hard to determine. According to Fangraphs.com, his line drive percentage is down a bit from 2008, but right in line with his 2004-2005 seasons, when he posted offensive numbers far better than his current season.
But there is another issue that seems to be unaddressed. When A-Rod was diagnosed with his hip injury, he had two choices for surgery. One would completely repair the injury, but keep him out for most or all of the season. The other, a procedure to get him through the year, promised a return at 80-85 percent, with another surgery scheduled for the end of the year. He chose the latter, and came back quickly.
In other words, A-Rod is playing hurt.
So while his BABIP may come up, and A-Rod may find himself better-equipped to hit with today’s news that he’ll be rested one game a week until the All Star Break, it is worth remembering that Rodriguez is in uncharted territory. We know how A-Rod has performed without this injury, but we have no sense of what an injured A-Rod can do for the Yankees. Clearly, he is a better option than Cody Ransom, Angel Berroa, or virtually anyone else the Yankees could put at third base.
But this is an injured A-Rod, playing through a hip malady, and Yankee fans would be wise to temper expectations accordingly.
