Comparison: 78 Guidry vs. 85 Gooden
By Mike Silva ~ December 29th, 2009. Filed under: NY Baseball Memories, Statistical Analysis.
Comparison: 78 Guidry vs. 85 Gooden
I was talking about “All Time Staffs” yesterday and it got me into thinking about some top pitching performances by local legends.
Author and former Yankees beat writer Phil Pepe has appeared on my show a few times. During those appearances he mentioned the two best seasons he ever saw: Ron Guidry’s 1978 and Doc Gooden’s 1985. I was too young to appreciate either, but I wanted to break it down each this cold winter day and see statistically who might have been better.
Gooden
W: 24
L: 4
ERA: 1.54
FIP: 2.13
ERA+ = 228
K/BB = 3.88
WHIP = 0.965
Guidry
W: 25
L: 3
ERA: 1.74
FIP: 2.19
ERA+ = 208
K/BB = 3.44
WHIP = 0.946
This is a very hard comparison because both seasons are very similar. You have pitchers that won games, struck out tons of batters, and allowed less than one base runner per nine innings. Both got better as the season progressed, if you could believe it, as per their second half splits. Guidry supporters will argue the “Louisiana Lightening” actually led his team to the playoffs, and subsequent World Series championship, while Dr. K and the Mets fell short by three games. To be fair, 98 wins is hardly a bad season as those eighties Mets teams could have sure used a Wild Card format.
Here is where you might want to give Gooden the advantage. If you use ERA+, which is ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors, Gooden in 1985 has the sixth highest all time for pitchers who made 30 or more starts. His single season is better than some top performances by Christy Mathewson, Lefty Grove, Cy Young, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. To put it in perspective, Sandy Koufax, who had a huge 1966 season, actually put up a 190 ERA+, which was a single season best for his career.
It’s almost criminal to say one is better than another, but you have to give Gooden a small edge on this one. Unfortunately, for Mets fans, unlike some of the great pitchers mentioned, including Guidry, Doc’s success was fast and fleeting as that season counted for over 10% of his career wins.
I encourage anyone who has something different to add, or remembers watching one, or both, seasons to give their perspective.
December 29th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Uhhhhhhh……….. DH?
December 29th, 2009 at 12:42 pm
A couple things to remember about the win totals. Guidry actually won his 25th on the 163rd game of the season. Yanks finished tied with boston and had a 1 game playoff.
Gooden was held back from his last regular start of the season as the Met were eliminated and the organization wanted to protect his young arm.
December 29th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Mike, you realize the constant in the formula for FIP changes by the season? It would be a hassle to find out your own constant, but lucky for us, FanGraphs does it for us.
I’m guessing that’s what you messed up, but Gooden’s FIP was 2.13 and Guidry’s FIP was 2.19.
December 29th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Good pick up.
Silly me crossed up since UZR doesn’t go back that far, but FIP does. I fixed it, but at least it got me into playing around with FIP and seeing its benefits (and shortcomings)
Clearly Strikeouts drive the stat, which IMO is unfair to pitchers that pitch more to contact. It’s not all luck if you make a great pitch and pop someone up, or ground them out.
December 29th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Very interesting comparison. I’m not sure I fullly understand this part of the comparison, though: “Unfortunately, for Mets fans, unlike some of the great pitchers mentioned, including Guidry, Doc’s success was fast and fleeting as that season counted for over 10% of his career wins.” Gooden’s 24 wins in 1985 were 12.4% of his career wins, but Guidry’s 25 wins in 1978 were an even higher percentage, 14.7%, of his career wins. Gooden pitched more innings and won more games in his career than Guidry. Gooden’s total career with the Mets (2,169 IP, 157 wins, 116 ERA+) was pretty comparable to Guidry’s career overall (2,392 IP, 170 wins, 119 ERA+), but Doc also had a post-Mets second act, with the Yankees and others, in which he won another 37 games, pitched over 600 innings and was an average-level pitcher at an ERA+ of 99.
December 29th, 2009 at 4:30 pm
Is it OK if I elect NOT to choose, and like the heck out of both of these guys?