More Boston Leaks – Truth or Negotiating Strategy?
By Mike Silva ~ December 12th, 2009. Filed under: Offseason Speculation.
First it was Buster Olney reporting the Red Sox had concerns about Jason Bay’s knees, now Sean McAdam of Comcast Sports New England says Boston has plans to move him to the designated hitter position. I believe these claims, although not preposterous, are more negotiating ploy than anything. Remember, the Sox have also leaked their contract offer will not exceed four years. A team, like the Mets, probably can have Bay’s services for some sort of fifth year scenario. What better way to stop that from happening then to leak concerns about the guy’s health and ability to field.
Let’s look at some of the facts:
- Bay hasn’t played less than 150 games since 2004, including all 162 games in 2005. Exactly what is the injury risk? There is no data that indicates Bay is an injury waiting to happen.
- We know his defense isn’t good. Advanced metrics indicate that historically, but playing the Green Monster isn’t the easiest outfield in sports. Could Bay look worse in Boston because of that? If Gary Sheffield could play the outfield at Citi, and not kill the Mets, can’t Bay? Also, a healthy Carlos Beltran changes the necessary range for corner outfielders. In 2008 Beltran played, what I called, the “rover” as his corner outfielders after Ryan Church’s injury were Marlon Anderson, Nick Evans, Fernando Tatis, and Daniel Murphy. I think Bay can hold his own with that group of defensive luminaries.
- I know David Ortiz can’t play the field, but Bay was the DH only once in 2009. You would think Francona would have put him there once in a while, especially when Ortiz was slumping early in the season.
- He clearly wasn’t aided by the cozy confines of Fenway Park. I don’t believe Matt Holliday, even though the stats indicate a trend, is just a Coors Field type of hitter. Yes he was in a lineup with Albert Pujols last season, but Holliday was in the lineup protecting him, and had Ryan Ludwick or Mark DeRosa behind him. Not exactly protection. Of course, if you subscribe to Bill James none of this matters so maybe it’s a moot point. Also, remember that Bay’s former home, PNC Park, is a middle of the pack offensive ballpark when it comes to extra base hits. He should be fine at Citi Field.
There is nothing wrong with Boston playing the negotiating game. I just think it’s become obvious because most of their leaks are to Boston outlets and the home of the Red Sox (ESPN). Boy Wonder Epstein might be a little too smart for his own good on this one. Matt Holliday is no question the better overall player – I have said that all along. If Bay is going to cost less, wrap up negotiations quicker, and provide the Mets what they need – a middle of the order bat – then sign him now. Why wait for a January “maybe” with Holliday when a similar option is available now. Scott Boras is headed for a long winter in my opinion. Johnny Damon will not get his four year deal and Matt Holliday will not receive Mark Teixeira money. That may cause him to hold out on Holliday and put the Mets in a “Manny Ramirez type situation”. This team doesn’t need that after 2009.
In short, the Mets shouldn’t take what the Boston front office says very seriously. I certainly don’t.
