How Often is It Ace vs. Ace?
By Mike Silva ~ December 12th, 2009. Filed under: Sabermetrics.
I decided to subscribe to John Dewan’s “stat of the week” via email. It’s a good opportunity for me to expand my horizons and opine on various statistical analysis.
This week’s question challenges the old theory that a team’s ace usually is matched up against another team’s ace throughout the course of the baseball season. Interesting enough Dewan debunks that theory since there were “ace vs. ace” matchups about 20% of the time in 2009.
Detroit’s Justin Verlander faced the most “aces” with 11, but Brian Bannister, hardly an ace, had the highest percentage of starts vs. an ace at 35%.
The Yankees CC Sabathia was tied for the top five with 9 starts that accounted for 27% of his starts.
Dewan did point out that 31% of aces faced pitchers that were not in their teams starting rotation on opening day. I guess my question is what constitutes an “ace” and could the “ace of a staff” change throughout the season? If it’s standard to the known stars (Sabathia, Santana, Lincecum, etc.) then what happens if a supposed “ace” has a down year. Is he still an ace?
Look at the 1988 Mets. Dwight Gooden was the “ace of the staff”, but David Cone had the best season. Who was really the ace in that situation?
Great breakdown by Dewan but, as I always say, look behind the numbers and challenge it. That is what makes for the best result and, in my opinion, what baseball debate is all about.
I will continue to read Mr. Dewan’s updates and post those that I find interesting and, of course, challenge the thought process behind the numbers. I have added the “stat of the week” link to the sidebar (under resources) for those that are interested.
