Mets Need to Hold the Line At One Year For Molina
By Howard Megdal ~ December 7th, 2009. Filed under: Howard Megdal.
I think $6 million for one year of Bengie Molina is too much money. But you won’t hear me complaining about it if the Mets ink Molina to such a deal-and the reporting by Joe DeMayo and Jon Heyman indicates they may well do that. Even if the deal includes a team option for year two, that is fine.
But the Mets will be making a big mistake going any further than that.
Consider that if Bengie Molina simply repeats his 2009, the Mets will be getting, for $6 million, a catcher with an 86 OPS+, who walked 13 times all season, who for all the talk of his defense, threw out just 23 percent of would-be basestealers.
But it would be unreasonable to expect Molina to be that good in 2010.
Molina is 35, with 1172 major league games caught (and another 402 in the minors). His knees are reportedly problematic, and no wonder, given his age, games caught, and weight. Chances are he’ll regress in 2010, and the Mets will want to cut bait.
This would be true regardless, but is particularly so given the presence of Josh Thole, whose bat is likely major-league ready, and whose defensive skills are considered by the Mets to be a year away. Thole represents a chance to fill the catching position with a young, inexpensive player with upside.
It isn’t that Josh Thole is the next Mike Piazza. But he is a catcher likely to provide a .700+ OPS for little money. That has a great deal of value. And he could be better than that.
Signing Molina to a two-year deal likely means trying to get rid of Molina after 2010. If you think that can’t hold up a winter, consider how much of Omar Minaya’s time and energy is likely being spent trying to deal Luis Castillo.
As for the reports Molina is seeking a three-year deal… well, that wouldn’t be advisable if Molina were a good bet to post a 120 OPS+ in 2010. But he’s a better bet to post an 80 OPS+. There are plenty of catcher out there ready to provide that for a one-year deal, including several already on the Mets- Omir Santos and Josh Thole.
For whatever reason, the Mets prefer Molina. Fine. They are a large-market team and want to overpay. Fine.
Hold the line at one year. More than that, and the Mets will be very sorry.
