Olivo Over Molina
By Howard Megdal ~ November 13th, 2009. Filed under: Howard Megdal.
I must admit to being surprised by the reported willingness of the Mets to pay Bengie Molina $6 million for 2010, and possibly go two or even three years in length with his contract. In an offseason where New York has many holes to fill, this represents a sizable chunk of what they’ll be able to spend, for a marginal return.
If the conventional wisdom is that Josh Thole needs a year at Triple-A to consolidate his offensive games and improve his defense- not a view I share, but let’s deal with the perception as it exists- then the Mets need a catcher. But why Bengie Molina over Miguel Olivo, a much better bet in 2010 and beyond?
Let’s start with 2009. Bengie Molina hit 20 home runs, something everyone seems quick to point out. This makes sense, given how few home runs the Mets hit in 2009. However, it also allows us to view one of the few things Molina does well, while ignoring how completely his offensive game is built around home runs alone.
For all his power, Molina posted an OPS+ of 86 in 2009, thanks in large part to his inability to draw walks or get many non-home-run hits. As for Olivo, a strikingly similar player, his OPS+ in 2009 was 103-significantly better than Molina.
Taken over the past three years, Molina has the slight edge in OPS+, 90 to 87.
Defensively, Olivo has been better at throwing out runners than Molina. He’s at just under 33 percent over the past three years, while Molina checks in at less than 29 percent.
And remember, the Mets aren’t signing Molina to a three-year retroactive contract. It’s for 2010, possibly 2011 and 2012.
Molina will be playing his age-36 season next year. Olivo will be entering his age-31 season. And Olivo, unlike Molina, won’t cost anywhere near $6 million for the season, leaving more cash for the Mets to spend elsewhere.
So while it is tempting to try and acquire a Catching Molina Brother- after all, so many other teams have one, while the Mets have only had the Illegitimate Catching Molina Brother, Gustavo- Olivo would be the better free agent bet for 2010.
November 14th, 2009 at 5:00 am
Olivo Career Numbers: 3.8 BB%, 27.5 K%, .278 OBP!!!!, .299 wOBA!!!
I agree Molina should not be anywhere near the Mets in 2010 or anytime after that, but neither should Olivo. The best option on a one year deal this off season is Gregg Zaun or even Ramon Castro.
November 14th, 2009 at 4:38 pm
Olivo was a terrible defensive catcher this year. Zaun is definitely the best answer. Combining their offensive runs above average and defensive runs above average, here’s a look at each catcher’s WAR this past year:
Olivo WAR: 1.3
Molina WAR: 1.5
Zaun WAR: 2.0
November 14th, 2009 at 4:39 pm
I should note Fangraph’s WAR for catchers only takes offensive runs above average into account, not defensive runs. I got the defensive runs from Driveline Mechanics.
November 14th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
NM, considering Olivo will be 31 and Zaun 39, I’d still be inclined to go with Olivo, even if I had complete confidence in catcher defensive metrics, which I simply don’t at this point. Zaun has also caught more than 110 games once in his entire career. This is not to suggest that he can’t. But I wouldn’t want to bet a starting position on it.
Agree you can do better than these three at the position generally (though not in this particular free agent market). But with all the buzz around the Mets and Molina, I thought the comparison was a worthwhile one to make.