History Can’t Strike Twice-Right?
By Mike Silva ~ October 23rd, 2009. Filed under: 2009 Playoffs.
Wallace Matthews is never afraid to be the bearer of bad news. If you lined up 10 people, and Matthews was one of them, he would find the negative needle in the haystack. This doesn’t mean he isn’t always wrong, but rather difficult to spend a great deal of time around. Fortunately we only have to read Wally, not live with him, but his take on the pending doom of the 2009 Yanks seems a bit more than just his usual “chicken little” rantings.
The Yankees have done just about everything right the last 12 months. They signed the best hitter and pitcher on the free agent market, brought in complementary pieces that can help on the field and in the clubhouse, as well as saw the fruits of their draft strategy start to pay dividends. The only criticism I can throw on Brian Cashman is his inability to acquire a legitimate back end of the rotation starter. So far that hasn’t been an issue. What the Yankees have going against them is some negative history. Yes you heard me. The team with 26 World Championships actually has a recent legacy of failure. Ever since Luis Gonzalez dumped that humpback liner over Derek Jeter in 2001 the Yanks have found a way to break everyone’s heart. 2004 has become the poster child for the recent legacy of failure.
While everyone, including me, was talking about a World Series matchup against the Phillies we failed to notice that Joe Girardi is playing mad scientist with his bullpen. This isn’t the April version which included names like Jose Veras, Edwar Ramirez, and Jonathan Albaladejo. This is the bullpen that was a huge part of their 103 win season. A bridge to Rivera that includes Robertson, Hughes, Coke, Marte, and the enigmatic Chamberlain is an embarrassment of riches. It’s not like some teams (i.e. Phillies) who are relying on Chan Ho Park, a scrap heap pickup, to get big outs in the late innings. Regardless, a tool is only as good as the person using it. Even the most powerful miter saw is worthless in the hands of an incompetent carpenter. In baseball a good bullpen can be turned to mush by the manager. Mets fans know this from their experience with Willie Randolph over the course of his tenure. Yankees fans are sharing that pain watching Joe Girardi matchup his way into another collapse.
The good news is that great teams can overcome bad managers. Joe Torre won 4 World Series and was never a mastermind when it came to X’s and O’s. This Yankee team is every bit as good as their nineties counterparts. They also have the same desire to win and appear to lack the fear of failure. The latter will be tested this weekend at the Stadium.
Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia, and Nick Swisher become the 2009 version of Gary Sheffield, Javier Vazquez, and Randy Johnson? Will Johnny Damon know how it feels to be on the other side of history? Will the Angels celebrate on Yankee ground like the Indians, Marlins, and Red Sox have done this decade? I believe the answer is a resounding no. The Angels still have Brian Fuentes as their closer and the law of averages are on the Yankees side. Collapses happen in Queens, not the Bronx.
Don’t take my word for it. After all I am the same guy that has gotten every series wrong so far this postseason. The only prediction that was on the money was the Yankees sweep of the Twins. I am also the guy that predicted the 2007 Yankees were done on Memorial Day, it was mathematically impossible for the Phillies to make up 7 games with 17 to play, and the Mets couldn’t have two bad September’s in a row. When Mike and the Mad Dog were together they had terrible history with predictions, but compared to me they might as well have been Nostradamus.
As Matthews points out the Angels aren’t the 2004 Red Sox. Everything points to 2009 being different than 2004. It’s only a matter of time before the champagne is popped. History can’t strike twice- right?
October 23rd, 2009 at 12:44 pm
History can indeed strike twice, curses and “Angels have their number” aside.
It wasn’t just ‘everything right’ as it was a mixture of the right players, some luck, and some good managing. What if they never put Hughes in the bullpen or he didn’t work there? They couldn’t know that he would succeed, or that Robertson would emerge as a good reliever.
Sometimes I think who makes the playoffs/does well is determined by who gets lucky with relievers. Look at the Phillies. The Mets gave them no competition this year, but they won last year because they got lucky/made wise signings with their bullpen. Guys had career years. Guys overperformed. Just look at those exact same guys, Madson and Lidge for example, to see it. Had this year’s Madson and Lidge been last years, the Rays would probably be world champions.
(Willie, btw, was way better than Manuel with the bullpen. In ’07 he was criticized for over-using Mota among others, but he didn’t have anybody else. in ’08 Manuel had another half-dozen callups and add-ons that he managed to get the least out of)
I think both Manuel’s bullpen management, and why the Yankees are here are both a product of rest. And this is where Girardi gets huge props.
After April, I really thought the Yankees would not make it again, and win 90 games or less. I thought they’d break down, and age badly. I didn’t think A-Rod would return on time, or fully healthy, and I fully suspected Burnett would struggle, if not get injured. Pettitte and Mariano have both battled arm problems here and there the last few years, and I thought by September they wouldn’t be able to handle the work load required to make a chase. The same of Posada. But the Red Sox collapsing helped Girardi give these guys breaks down the stretch, and kept them healthy.