Three Needs Not Easily Filled
By Mike Silva ~ September 2nd, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
Tim Marchman pointed out how the Mets roster is top heavy earlier in the week. Going into 2010 a (presumably) healthy core of Beltran, Reyes, Wright, Santana, and K-Rod gives the Mets a good starting base. The surrounding cast is going to need minimum three additions in order to compete: a cleanup hitter, number two starter, and setup man. Unfortunately, these are three needs not easily filled. Here are some early thoughts on who may be available, and what is realistic.
Cleanup Hitter
Since 2006 we have been accustomed to Carlos Delgado’s power in the cleanup role. Even if Delgado returns, an unlikely scenario, it’s going to be hard to believe the post hip surgery version will hit 35 homers and drive in 110 runs. Those are numbers that will cost the team $12- 15 million on the free agent market. Obviously a dream scenario has the Mets calling up Milwaukee about Prince Fielder or San Diego about Adrian Gonzalez. Again, the Mets are not in a position to clean out the farm, or add significant payroll, both prerequisites for acquiring those players.
The three positions the Mets are the weakest are LF, C, and 1B. Forget acquiring the 2010 version of Mike Piazza, so what is on the free agent market? Jason Bay would be a perfect fit in left, but his second half performance throws up some huge flags. Nick Johnson and Adam LaRoche would be nice fits, but neither is your prototypical cleanup hitter. Remember, you have Ike Davis waiting in the wings, so you don’t want to commit to a long term deal with anyone at first base. Here is an idea: Derrek Lee.
Lee is coming is entering the last year of his deal and is scheduled to make $13 million dollars. Could he be had? Perhaps if you give the Cubs a couple of prospects they would be inclined to talk. The no trade clause is a problem but, if you read the article this weekend about the Wrigley Field “racism”, it’s not inconceivable to think he would want a change of scenery.The problem is we don’t know what kind of budget the Mets are working with. If it stays at $145 million than Lee could slot in for the money saved with the Wagner trade and declining the JJ Putz option.
#2 Starter
This is a tough one. We all thought Mike Pelfrey would emerge as that guy this year. Obviously he still can, but his 2009 season gives me reason to believe that Pelfrey will more likely be, at best, a #3 in a good year, and more likely, a back of the rotation enigma. Same goes for John Maine and Oliver Perez. None of the Mets young pitchers that are close to the big leagues (Niese, Gee, Stoner) are projected to be more than a #4 or 5. Brad Holt has potential, but he hasn’t mastered AA yet. The dreamer in me says the Mets find a way to afford John Lackey. Perhaps that is realistic if they go the LaRoche or Johnson route at first base, and don’t acquire a big name like Lee. More than likely you might have to roll the dice on an Erik Bedard, Jose Contreras, Rich Harden, Joel Piniero, Jason Marquis, or (gasp) Brett Myers. Jerrod Washburn actually intrigues me because he probably won’t cost as much as Lackey, but could profile well in the National League. I am sure Citi Field will leave no shortage of AL pitchers lining up to take the Mets money. My bet is that they go more the Piniero route than Lackey/Washburn and hope that Perez/Maine/Pelfrey all realize their potential. Cross your fingers.
Setup Man
This is always the tricky acquisition. You thought the Mets had their guy in JJ Putz, after all, how can you go wrong with two closers. Even before the injury you got the sense Putz didn’t enjoy setting up ballgames, so maybe it’s time to go the traditional setup man route. Internally you have Bobby Parnell and Eddie Kunz. Who knows maybe Brant Rustich (who was nearly called up in 2007), or Brad Holt could inject some life in the pen later on. Regardless, it’s way too risky to entrust the eighth inning to a kid (Phil Hughes laughs as I write this). I am all for the Mets signing a Rafael Betancourt, Octavio Dotel, or Rafael Soriano if the price is right. That means no more than two years on any deal, and preferably one, if the market dictates. Knowing how stacked the Yankees and the Red Sox are in the bullpen makes me think two years is more realistic, with one year a possibility. My preference is Betancourt (look at his work in Colorado), with Dotel the consolation prize. I don’t trust Soriano and I suspect he would want to close. This shouldn’t cost more than $3 million and, hopefully, won’t be out of the Mets price range.
What’s Realistic?
I think we are staring at the oft injured Nick Johnson on a 1 year deal, a scrap heap hopeful like Erik Bedard as a #2, and Betancourt setting up ballgames. If this is the case the Mets have to hope their core stays healthy, complementary players contribute, and starting enigma’s come through. It was the recipe that led them to a division title in ’06, and competitive seasons in 07′ and 08′. The frustrating part is Lee, Lackey, and Betancourt will probably cost about $30 million dollars. In a pre Madoff world you can see the Mets increasing payroll and taking on this type of money. Remember, about $20 million is coming off the books. Now the future is murky and landing one, much less three, seems like a stretch.
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:37 am
your bullpen breakdown is off. no quality reliever only gets a 2 year deal, let alone a 1 year deal, anymore….and definitely not at a discount price. every team seeks to improve their pen every off-season and despite the poor economy and cost cutting measures there will certainly be teams ready to indulge in effective pen help. scott lindebrink’s and demaso marte’s deals come to mind. 3-4 years at $3.5+M is more realistic
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:40 am
I would investigate making a deal for Carlos Zambrano. He’s is still a great pitcher, he’s under contract for severial years and still young (28). I get the felling that Chicago (especially Sweat Lou) is sick of him and it’s probably a mutual feeling.
I think that the Mets could get him cheep, either buy taking on his full contract (about 18mil for four years) or paying part of it and trading one or two players.
I think that the change of scenery would have a huge positive impact on him and he seems like the type of pitcher who’d thrive pitching in NY.
The other option is trying to pry Roy Halladay away from Toronto. He’d cost a lot in prospects. (I’d trade Pagan, Parnell, F-Mart and a Reese Havens type) and you’d have to sign Halladay to an big extension and you’d limit you’re spending flexibility and hurt your farm at the same time. (I’d still try to do it). Because of his over all great numbers and more because of his ability to work quick and eat a ton of innings, I feel he’s probably the best pitcher in baseball. Not to mention, he’d be a very good influence on Pelfrey and Maine. His value goes beyond the time he’s on the mound.
I losing faith that F-Mart can stay healthy enough to play. we got three solid SS prospects, so we could afford to trade one of them and we could lose Parnell if it meant getting a legit top of the rotation starter.
If people wanted to give Lowe 15mil per for four years at the age of 36, then you shouldn’t object to 21mil for 6 years to a 32 year old ace like Halladay.
Of course both deals would eat up most of the money the Mets have to spend next year. But assuming that Reyes, Beltran, Wright and Frenchy are all healthy next year, the offense should easily score twice as many runs.
I’d rather keep Murphy at 1st and see what kind of one-two year deal would could get on a Dye, Guerrero or (can’t believe I’m saying it) Abreu type. I think Murph will be helped a lot with more protection in the lineup and having full year under his belt.
September 2nd, 2009 at 10:41 am
I still think your expectations are way too high!
Try Aubrey Huff for 1st base/cleanup, Vincente Padilla as the starter, Danys Baez and/or Fernando Rodney with Elmer Dessens for the bullpen and Henry Blanco to share the catching duties with Omir.
September 2nd, 2009 at 11:17 am
First, you have to determine the financial status of the team. I like Lackey, Marquis, a New York product, carl crawford for left field, 10 million dollars on his deal, and a catcher that can hit at least 270-280 with 15-18 homeruns 75-80 rbi’s. Murphy stays at first providing you add offense around him.
September 2nd, 2009 at 12:24 pm
Mike,
Actually approx. $30 million will be comming off the books.
Johan, K-rod, Wright, Reyes & Francoeur(if they sign him
which would probably be via arbitration for $5 million) will account for raised totalling $16.25 million.
Beltran, Ollie, Castillo & Pelfrey will have indentical salaries in 2010 as they did in 2009.
Coming off the books are: Delagado-16, Wagner-10, Putz-5, Schneider-4.9(yes, brian schneider made 4.9 million this year), Redding-2.25, Cora-2, Tatis-1.7, Reed-1, & the Mets were responsible for .6 for Sheffield.
The Mets this year were also responsible for: Schoenweis-1.6, Marlon Anderson-1.1 & Duaner Sanchez-.25.
Oh yeah, Willie’s 2 million also…so we’re looking @ 32 million”off the books.”
September 2nd, 2009 at 1:46 pm
I would still like to see the Mets make a play for Chone Figgins. They need to suit their team to their ballpark, and I think he fits pretty well. Plus he really has a winning mentality. Of course, the best place for him would be 2B, so as not to retard FMart’s development, but that would require disposing of Castillo, which the Mets are unlikely to do.
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:11 pm
how about signing duncan as a pitching coach instead of trying to sign a #2 I bet duncan can do wonders to improve maine, pelfrey and dare I say perez then have niese round out the rotation
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:56 pm
Why not have Maine as the set up man and try to help his shoulder. He hasn’t really pitched much the last 2 years and would best be served with his 95 mph fast ball in the pen. Then they could focus on a #2 starter then a LF or RF (if Frank’s is not tendered). If they get a HR and RBI guy from the LF or RF guy they bring in they Murphy/Evans is not looking all that bad at 1B.
September 2nd, 2009 at 2:59 pm
If the plan is it take a step back and “rebuild”, then OK, don’t sign anybody…but don’t expect anyone in the system to fill the #2 spot behind Santana. And don’t expect to win the Division/NLCS/WS with the rotation we have now.
I’m not sure Maine will ever be healthy enough to ever make the “next Step”. I’m not even sure you can assume Maine will be back next year.
Although, bring Duncan in is still a good idea.
September 3rd, 2009 at 3:26 am
“Jason Bay would be a perfect fit in left, but his second half performance throws up some huge flags.”
You should have done some research. Bay’s post-ASB splits are more impressive than his pre-ASB. But he would not be a good fit, at all, because of his terrible outfield defense.
September 3rd, 2009 at 5:12 am
I did do the research. His power #’s are not the same and his June – July were not great.
He has heated up recently, which may have skewed the results. I saw the OPS #’s, but the power and RBI’s jumped out at me. He has been hurt, but a little leery of Bay.
September 3rd, 2009 at 11:19 am
The question on first really is how much you want to block Ike Davis. I could easily see Lee making a contract extension a condition for being traded, and given how Davis found his power swing this season I suspect he’ll be banging at the door by the AS break next year. He’s put up a .341/.401/.651 line since the AS break this year, pretty much all at AA, with 10 HR in 129 AB – and while the K/BB ratio still needs work, if the Mets really are going to be on a limited budget I’d see getting him regular PT starting in mid-late June 2010 as a way of doing that.