Neyer Way off on Mauer vs. Teixeira for MVP
By Mike Silva ~ August 16th, 2009. Filed under: Mike Silva.
Frankly, I’m worried that the baseball writers are already conspiring to rob Joe Mauer — for the third time — of an award that should rightly be his. – Rob Neyer at ESPN on 8/15/2009
I enjoy reading Rob Neyer and respect his work a great deal. He has been great to NYBD as he has linked up pieces of ours from time to time. However, his position on MVP is way off base.
Joe Mauer is a great player. His overall numbers are slightly better than Teixeira, especially when you look at OPS and OPS+. The fact that the Minnesota Twins are under .500 should disqualify him immediately.
The difference between the Red Sox and Yankees very well could be Teixeira. He is outstanding on both sides of the ball and a positive influence in the clubhouse. You already know my issues with UZR, so I won’t even get into his comparison to Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau defensively. The MVP should be a player that contributes to a winning team, not possess the best overall statistics. Mark Feinsand had a great point on twitter last night when he said that the “Hank Aaron award should be voted on by the writers as the hitting equivalent to the Cy Young and be separate from the MVP”. Give the best offensive player their own designation.
We still have six weeks left in the regular season and obviously things can change. Who knows, maybe the Yankees collapse and fall out of the pennant race? Unlikely, but anything is possible. During that same time maybe Minnesota makes a run and wins the AL Central behind Mauer. All I am saying is that there is no way, as of today, you can give this award to anyone but Teixeira. That is, if you look at the award correctly, which is what player is most valuable to his team, not the one that compiles the best numbers.
August 16th, 2009 at 8:53 am
Mauer is having such a vastly superior season over Teixiera that it is making the Twins record irrelevant. Mark Teixiera’s is having a good season but his statistics are virtually identical to Justin Morneau, and in some ways worse then Miguel Cabrera. If Teixiera hits 50 HR’s and 140 RBI as well as hitting over .300 then I wouldn’t mind so much if he won the MVP award, but not when it looks like he’ll .285 with 40 HR’s and 120-130 RBI’s. Very good power numbers but not great, and certainly not comparable to the numbers Mauer is putting up in the toughest hitting position (excluding the pitcher) in baseball.
August 16th, 2009 at 9:00 am
Lars
You are 100% correct, but maybe the debate should be more about what is the MVP award? Maybe it’s time to have a separate award, as Feinsand said, for the best offensive player. The impact of Teixeira on the Yankees is clear. There is no way this team is 6.5 games up on Boston if Tex was in Beantown and Juan Miranda, Nick Swisher, or Victor Martinez is playing first for the Yanks.
The catching scenario is a great point, but why didn’t Piazza win the MVP in 1997 with a similar year to Mauer?
August 16th, 2009 at 9:22 am
Piazza probably should have won but Larry Walker had a few more home runs and RBI’s with a slightly higher average. If the MVP award were just about the best player on playoff team, it would disqualify a lot of very deserving players with terrible supporting casts. I’m not convinced that Teixiera is the best player on the Yankee’s, Derek Jeter is having another fabulous year, and if we want to go into sabermetrics, VORP and WAR as such, Jeter is much more valuable to the Yankee’s then Teixiera.
And if were really arguing the most valuable to their team, you can’t compare the supporting casts that Mauer and Teixiera have. Was it coincidence that Teixiera didn’t start hitting until A-Rod returned to the lineup or did Teixiera need him protecting him in the lineup?
August 16th, 2009 at 9:31 am
The Onion does Mark Teixiera. Pretty funny.
http://www.theonion.com/content/infograph/mark_teixeira
August 16th, 2009 at 10:11 am
You are way off WAY OFF and nothing but a homer. #snot even close esp when you consider he plays 1st base compared to catcher. NOT EVEN CLOSE!
August 16th, 2009 at 2:01 pm
Symborski on BTF has me laughing with his smackdown of this article’s specious reasoning:
————
We don’t need the dictionary. The ballot for the MVP Award defines value for the purposes of filling out the ballot.
From the ballot:
The rules of the voting remain the same as they were written on the first ballot in 1931:
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
2. Number of games played.
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
4. Former winners are eligible.
5. Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team.
We don’t have to read tea leaves. It’s right there! If someone wants to tell me under which rule Mauer should be docked because Punto, Young, and most of the rotation suck, I’ll be glad to listen.
The idea that justification for winning an individual award can be that Derek Jeter happens to be on the team instead of Nick Punto is absurd.
—————-
August 16th, 2009 at 2:32 pm
How dumb can an argument get? That a guy who isn’t even the best first baseman in the AL this year, is an MVP because the Yankees have a $180M budget and are stacked with talent?
The very idea that a first baseman with limited to no defensive value, is more valuable than a good defensive catcher who is providing about 20% more offense is absurd. The idea that a blogger would spot this nonsense without even taking five seconds to google MVP criteria isn’t so absurd, however.
It’s arguments like this that demean the fine season that Texiera is having, when a fanboy writes a blog saying “wowzzz best eva!!!!” it’s so over the top it almost makes me hate Tex as much as I hate red sox fans. Please in the future, stop and think before you blog, before you humiliate yourself again.
August 16th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
how can anyone be mvp when their team is under 500 in a terrible division?
August 16th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
randy,
u obv havent watched the yankees in ’08 and ’09 if u dont think a greta def 1b has no value. ask the yankee pitchers n infielders if u dont think tex is a little better than giambi
August 16th, 2009 at 8:30 pm
I think Tex is awesome at first, at least compared to Giambi. I think he’s been a great addition and very valuable to the Yankees. But you have to be delusional to think that Tex is one of the best defenders at first in the game, anywhere near Pujols for example.
And even if Tex was the best defensive first baseman in the league, HE”S STILL A FIRST BASEMAN. Catcher is a far more valuable defensive position, and Mauer is damn good at it, his defensive contributions dwarf those of the best first basemen in the league.
It’s this basic misunderstanding that shows how undervalued Posada has been throughout his career. OPS+ is an easily available offensive metric that does a pretty good job of comparing offensive value of players. It’s adjusted for ballparks, era, etc so that 100 is always average, and the average catcher is probably around 85, or about 15% worse at hitting than an average MLB hitter. Piazza is the greatest hitting catcher of all time, his career OPS+ was 142. No other catcher is close. Johnny Bench is second at 126. Posada’s career OPS+ is 123! His age 35 season was 154, 5th in the entire league! That’s amazing.
But this year Joe Mauer’s OPS+ is 188, first in the AL. He has the highest slugging percentage, the highest on base percentage, the highest batting average. He is doing what no catcher has ever done in baseball history, and that’s including Piazza. And unlike Piazza, Mauer’s defense is stellar.
You can, and should, love Texiera for what he’s brought to the Yankees. But don’t demean it by pretending that he’s anywhere near as valuable as Joe Mauer. What’s next, claiming that Tex is better than Gehrig and Ruth?
August 16th, 2009 at 8:35 pm
And BTW, Mauer is a better hitter than Tex this year in every single way. Higher batting average, higher slugging, higher on base percentage, and higher OPS+, and it ain’t even close.. Tex is at 154, again Mauer at 188.
The only thing you can say is that Tex has played more games, and because of that, and his stadium, hit more home runs. But Mauer still creates more bases per at bat, outslugging Tex by almost 70 points (.630-.562)!
August 16th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
Randy
No way, shape, or form am I diminishing Mauer. I just think Teixeira has done a great job on both sides of the ball.
Go back to 2000, Mike Piazza lost the award to Jeff Kent. IMO Piazza should have gotten that award because of his value to that Mets team versus Kent to Giants.
The whole catcher argument falls short with me because Piazza was looked over a few times in his career, notable 1997 and 2000
August 16th, 2009 at 8:54 pm
“how can anyone be mvp when their team is under 500 in a terrible division?”
Because the MVP criteria says nothing about a teams record. It doesn’t say give bonus points to a player because his team has Jeter, A-Rod, and Mariano Rivera. According to the MVP criteria, if the best player in the league is on the worst team in the league, he still deserves the MVP.
Go somewhere else and make up your own most valuable yankee award criteria, but in the meantime stop being ignorant of the specific rules that have already been cited to you.
August 16th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
You can’t be serious. The award is so ambiguous. I don’t see anything clear by the outline other than he can be from a losing team (which I disagree)
Are you saying there is a specific criteria? If so, explain the randomness of prior winners. Baseball does a terrible job at this versus the other sports (look at the NBA).
August 16th, 2009 at 9:00 pm
Piazza wasn’t a great defensive catcher, but Kent was a so-so defensive player at a less valuable position. And Bonds was clearly MVP that year, leagues best hitter by a good margin, and still a plus defensive player.
But now you aren’t arguing Tex deserves the award, you are arguing that Tex should get the award even though he’s not deserving, just like Kent did. Just post a mea culpa, we all have our brain farts, learn, and move on.
August 16th, 2009 at 10:14 pm
“You can’t be serious. The award is so ambiguous. I don’t see anything clear by the outline other than he can be from a losing team (which I disagree)”
What is ambigious about the very first criteria being th actual value of his defense and offense? Again if you disagree, create your own “Silvaaa!!!!” award with your own criteria. Under the criteria a great player having a great season on a bad team is eligible.
“Are you saying there is a specific criteria? If so, explain the randomness of prior winners.”
Because voters are like you, they ignore the criteria and makeup their own reasons. Yes voters have done a terrible job at times, stop arguing that’s reason for another terrible injustice this year.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:25 am
Honestly, when you write articles that are so biased, you come off as a sychophant and reveal yourself to be a New York Yankees fan rather than a BASEBALL fan.
August 17th, 2009 at 8:15 am
Look, Texieria is a good player, but (I’m getting that dreaded WAR stat again) he’s been worth 3.8 wins over what Shelley Duncan would’ve provided. And he’s getting $20 million for those 4 wins. Obviously, 4 wins is a great season, and the season is not over, but Mauer is worth 5.9 wins already. And he had less plate apperences. So, who is more valuable?
August 17th, 2009 at 8:51 am
Mike,
Citing previous mistakes by the baseball writers in voting doesn’t justify future errors. If these awards were given based on an absolute value system to determine who was most valuable, previous awards would be a good indication. As it is, the writers judgment can be questionable at best (Rickey not a unanimous HoFer?).
Joe Mauer would be just as valuable on the Yankees as he is on the Twins. The concept that a player’s value is lessened by the team around him makes little sense. Where would the Twins be without Mauer? Would they even stand a chance at a run?
Baseball is one of the few team sports where a player can be completely selfish and still be an incredible asset. There is no passing or ball hogging in baseball. The only team factors that contribute to an individual’s stats are OBP, which effects Runs and RBIs.
From that perspective, looking at a players slash stats and home runs, walks, OPS+, etc, you can easily judge what value a particular player would have on any team, not just the below .500 team he currently plays for. Factor in defense and you get a pretty good look at what a player contributes.
Would the Yankees have the lead they do on the Red Sox without Tex? Depends who you replace him with. Would they have that lead without Damon? Or Burnett? Or Jeter? Or ARod? If your argument for a player can apply to four or five other players on his team, it isn’t an argument for that player. It’s just an argument with no individual relevance.
What if Mauer were on the Red Sox? Would they be 7.5 games back? Would you discount his value then?
August 17th, 2009 at 9:15 am
Mauer > Teixeira. Period.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:34 am
Whether or not the Red Sox would be better with Teixeria isn’t a very compelling argument, who’s to say the Red Sox woudln’t be in first if they had Joe Mauer as their catcher? That kind of vodoo logic can be used when you don’t have an objective reason to state your case. You think Mark Teixeria should be the MVP because you feel like he should be, not because there’s anything objectively showing he’s more valuable than Mauer. The award isn’t the “Best RBI Guy on a Winning Team” It’s most VALUABLE player and to have a catcher hit like Joe Mauer makes him more valuable than Mark Teixeria…period.
August 17th, 2009 at 9:57 am
Sure, Mauer’s team may not be playing .500 ball, but he’s also not in the same lineup as A-Rod, Damon, Jeter, et al, nor is he catching pitches from Sabathia, Burnett, Petitte and Chamberlain. One should expect the Yankees to have a better record, but Mauer still has had a greater impact on his team than Teixeira on his. If their hitting stats were even, it still wouldn’t make sense for Teixeira to win the MVP because of Mauer’s defensive value at the toughest position in the game. He only has 13 fewer RBI than Teixeira, which is a smaller difference than expected given who hits in front of him as opposed to who hits in front of Teixeira. And how many home runs would the lefty-hitting Mauer hit in Coors Field East as opposed to the offense-neutral Metrodome? Then consider that Mauer’s BA, OBP and SLG are all significantly higher, and he’s an outstanding defensive player, and a great clubhouse guy, and it shouldn’t be close. So what if he missed most of April? Teixeira might as well have too, given the way he performed. I’ll bet a lot of money that if you asked all 30 GMs in baseball which American Leaguer they could have on their team if they could pick any one of them, you would get something like 28 votes for Mauer, 2 for Longoria, and 0 for Teixeira. Mauer might even sweep the voting. He’s the most valuable player in the league, and only Pujols has a claim to being a more valuable player in baseball, period. He’s been jobbed twice by the stunning brilliance of the BBWAA already, and let’s hope they don’t do it a third time because someone from a playoff team in the middle of a stacked lineup happened to pile up the most RBI.
August 17th, 2009 at 10:26 am
I’m a Yankee fan and Joe Mauer is more valuable than Teixeira.
Also, it’s no surprise that Silva has “analysis” that would make John Kruk think, “Jeez, maybe you should think before you speak.”
August 17th, 2009 at 11:39 am
If the Twins’ pitchers were pitching as well as they had last year, Minnesota would be tied for first place (they’ve allowed 58 more runs than at this time last year – 10 runs = 1 win – and they’re 6 games back). So you are saying that the difference between Mauer winning the MVP and Tex winning is the Twins’ pitching staff? How does that make any sense?
Mauer is having the best season for a catcher EVER. Literally. No catcher in the history of baseball has posted an OPS+ of 186. Tex isn’t even the best 1st baseman in the majors THIS YEAR.
August 17th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
2003 MVP Alex Rodriguez, Texas Rangers 71-91, best Records in AL.
August 17th, 2009 at 1:10 pm
you just don’t understand baseball. You should quit writing for baseball.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Seems like everybody who’s on the Mauer bandwagon for MVP uses rational thought, statistics, and reason behind their argument. The Tex supporters use unquantifiable measures such as “he’s made the difference on this team”, “shored up the Yanks infield”, etc. Fact is, Mauer shouldn’t be punished just because the Twins pitching staff is the biggest pile of crap right now and is the sole reason why they aren’t leading the division.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:49 pm
Currently Teixeira is 4th among AL 1ST BASEMEN in OPS+.
Joe Mauer is at 186, 20 points ahead of the career best mark of Johnny Bench. The fielding bible rates Mauer as the 2nd best defensive catcher in MLB.
You’re going to crown Teixeira for a crazy home/road split and being better at having good teammates than Joe Mauer. Certifiably nutso.
August 17th, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Jeff
August 17th, 2009 at 2:18 pm
Seems like everybody who’s on the Mauer bandwagon for MVP uses rational thought, statistics, and reason behind their argument. The Tex supporters use unquantifiable measures such as “he’s made the difference on this team”, “shored up the Yanks infield”, etc. Fact is, Mauer shouldn’t be punished just because the Twins pitching staff is the biggest pile of crap right now and is the sole reason why they aren’t leading the division.
Pft, Jeff, this is sports, get out of here with that nerd talk and objective, researched thought. What do you think this is, science? We don’t form opinions based on fact here, we form an opinion and then make crap up to support it.
/sarcasm
August 17th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Just want to start off saying that I haven’t and won’t decide who I think should win this award until the end of the season. But I do find this to be a fascinating discussion, and have a few things I wanted to comment on.
Position
Just as I won’t penalize Mauer for not having the pitching and lineup that Tex has behind him, I also won’t give any points to Mauer for being a catcher. Sure, a catcher is a harder position to play than first base, and because of that most catchers are either good defensively, good at calling a game, or good offensively. Some are good at two, and a few can do all three. But there are different expectations for each position, and so they can’t be compared. The most important job of a catcher is to provide good defense and call a good game. The most important job of a first baseman is to help your infield by preventing errors (fields all balls thrown your way, even if they’re bad), and field your own position. So as far as expectations, I believe that both players have played their position very well. The Twins staff raves about Mauer, and the Yankees infield praises Tex. Therefore I don’t think either player has the edge here. They both part of a team, and the team has certain expectations of them, and I believe that they both get the job done better than most.
Batting
Hitting is completely different than fielding, and is something that can be directly compared. Statistically, Mauer is the better hitter (at the moment), so I give him the nod here.
Games
The second criteria is “Number of games played.” Mauer was out with an injury early in the season, and has only played in 92 games (versus Tex’s 114 games), so I give Tex the nod here.
Team
Here’s where things get tricky. The first criteria is “Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.” That is a very subjective statement. Both candidates have offensive and defensive strength. So how does that calculate into the value of the player to his team? Well, now it’s not just about numbers anymore – this is where the intangibles come in. If Damon gets better pitches and hits more home runs cause Tex is hitting behind him, then that’s offensive value. If Mauer drives in the go ahead run that Cabrera left stranded, then that’s offensive value. And the fact is, Twins fans are going to see Mauer’s contributions more than Tex’s and vice-versa. So without watching them both on a regular basis, it’s impossible to determine who is more valuable.
Record
This one is very controversial, but I think it needs to be considered. Cause ultimately, this is a sport. And even if you are the greatest to ever play the game, if it doesn’t help your team win, then how is it valuable? Doesn’t mean you didn’t constribute, but it does mean that it’s value to the team is greatly diminished. For example, if Tex hits a solo home run in the 8th inning of a 12-2 blowout, then it has little value – the result wouldn’t have changed if he’d struck out. But if he hits a solo home run in a 4-3 victory, then him striking out may resulted in a loss instead of a win. It’s the same thing with the team record – after all, baseball is a team sport, and the criteria says “Actual value of a player to his team.” So if Mauer goes 4-5 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI’s but the Twins lose 9-7, then his performance is not as valuable as Tex going 1-6 with 1 RBI but the Yankees win 1-0.
Wrapping It Up
Criteria 3-5 doesn’t distinguish anything between the two players, so I won’t address them. But I will say this – I believe a player’s value to the team is more than just the statistics. Does he make his teammates better (prevent errors, protect hitters, etc)? Does he help his team win? What impact on the team would his absence have? But then again, that’s just my interpretation of the criteria. And based on my interpretation, I think both Mauer and Tex are legitimate candidates. But we still have over 25% of the season remaining, so I’ll hold off on my vote until then. I’m not ready to declare either of them the winner anymore than I’m ready to name the Yankees the AL East winners (Mets fans learned this lesson the hard way…).
August 17th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
“Go back to 2000, Mike Piazza lost the award to Jeff Kent. IMO Piazza should have gotten that award because of his value to that Mets team versus Kent to Giants.
The whole catcher argument falls short with me because Piazza was looked over a few times in his career, notable 1997 and 2000.”
So… because the press made a mistake once before, you’re in favor of them making another one? That’s an argument you’re standing behind?
Oh, and JOE R?
“Pft, Jeff, this is sports, get out of here with that nerd talk and objective, researched thought. What do you think this is, science? We don’t form opinions based on fact here, we form an opinion and then make crap up to support it.”
1 out of 3 times on this site, this is pretty accurate.
August 17th, 2009 at 4:21 pm
DAVE L:
“So if Mauer goes 4-5 with 3 home runs and 6 RBI’s but the Twins lose 9-7, then his performance is not as valuable as Tex going 1-6 with 1 RBI but the Yankees win 1-0.”
Ah. So the better the team’s pitching is, the better a player _I_ am?
I see now. Put me down for Tex, and more dingers!
August 17th, 2009 at 4:48 pm
FRANCIS:
I never said Tex was better than Mauer – Mauer is clearly the better player. But that has nothing to do with your value to your team. The ultimate value to a team is winning – after all, it’s a competition. If you help your team win, then you have value. If they don’t win, then where’s the value?
In April, without Mauer, the team was 11-11. Since then they’ve been 45-50. Granted, maybe they would have gone 35-60 since May 1 if Mauer hadn’t returned – I haven’t watched enough Twins game to know.
The Yankees, on the other hand, started winning when Tex heated up. Could it be because A-Rod came back? If so, “intangibles” can make a HUGE difference, since he hasn’t exactly been an all-star player with his hip injury. Could it be because the pitching staff got better? Sure, that’s part of it. I’m not saying Tex is the reason the Yankees have won every game they’ve won – again, haven’t seen enough games to know. Again, I’m not saying Tex should win it over Mauer.
Anyway, I’m saying that you can’t just argue “his numbers are better” or “he’s a catcher” and say that’s the end of the argument. My point is that this is the Most Valuable Player award, not the Best Player award, and the criteria says “actual value of a player to his team”, and not “best player in the league”.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:00 pm
I never said Tex was better than Mauer – Mauer is clearly the better player. But that has nothing to do with your value to your team. The ultimate value to a team is winning – after all, it’s a competition.
Playing better – x variable
Value – y variable
r-squared value for the regression y = ax+b: 0
Brain. hurts.
A-Rod’s OBP: .390, Teixeira’s OBP: .382, A-Rod, struggling, Teixeira, MVP, Jeter, .390 OBP, Jeter, Shortstop, Jetenoijwoeijewfihnhnewjewij /collapses into a keyboard seizure
P.S. Here’s some actual value for you. It’s measured in wins!
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=6&season=2009&month=0
August 17th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
And how can you sanely brush off 1B defense and C defense? That is the most asinine, unsupported piece of crap I’ve ever heard. There is a reason why catchers are oftentimes the most skilled defenders on the field, while 1B is where you hide the big, slow cleanup hitter. BECAUSE CATCHER IS A MUCH HARDER POSITION THAT TAKES A TOLL ON A PLAYER, NORMALLY HURTING THEIR HITTING STATISTICS AND LONGEVITY. Mauer, despite this, has STILL generated more value with his bat than Teixeira (56 Runs Above Replacement / 46 runs above average on BP vs. Teix’s 46/31 split). I know statistics aren’t perfect, but I’ll trust recorded data over weirdly ascribed intangibles any day of the week.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:10 pm
“If you help your team win, then you have value. If they don’t win, then where’s the value?”
With respect, that’s bull. That’s like saying that because a $5,000 check doesn’t cover the mortgage check on your mansion, it has no value to you. This is patently false– it has $5,000 dollars of real value, even if you’ll need more to cover the monthly expense.
Now, I understand your point that performance in high-leverage situations may mean more real value to a baseball team, and that players who consistently perform in such situations provide more “real value” to their team. I’m not sure I agree entirely, but I’ll grant your premise.
Team records are a terrible way to gauge this, and don’t correlate well with “valued” game situations. Teixeira has never won a ballgame by himself. EVER. Neither has Mauer. Looking at a team’s wins to determine an individual player’s worth is a crappy way to determine individual value. Way too many other factors go into an individual team victory than one guy’s RBI hit– there’s more noise than value in the “wins” stat.
[Oh, and I disagree entirely on good-in-clubhouse stuff popping its head into the room for this debate, because there’s absolutely no way to make valid comparisons between candidates on this. Show me a way to objectively measure and compare intangibles, and I’ll weigh them in my evaluations of players.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:25 pm
You are of course welcome to use that, but I don’t believe that you can measure stuff like this. Batting average is one thing – it’s a straight statistic. But WAR is trying to make something subjective into an objective comparable value, which is impossible to do accurately.
After all, how can you say the Mauer has 5.9 wins above his replacement when you have no idea who his replacement would be? If Mauer wasn’t on the team, would the Twins have traded for a star catcher or young stud, or would they play some backup catcher that was forced to play full time? Would his replacement’s style be better or worse suited to playing in the Metrodome? Or what if they traded Mauer for two impact players that together provide a WAR of over 5.9?
That’s the greatest thing about baseball – it’s beyond mere statistics. That’s also why you can’t play the “what-if” game (which is what WAR tries to do) – you can only play the “what-is”, cause “what-if” can lead you to any conclusion you want. If it was all about statistics, then there would be a big calculation that took in every stat of the season and spit out the MVP. You’d have to take into account that Mauer only has a 34% success rate at throwing out base stealers. How many of those steals resulted in runs? How many of those runs cost the Twins the game? You’d have to look at every error that Tex made and whether or not that resulted in a an unearned run, and if so, how many of those resulted in loses?
But that’s not what this is about. I have no problem with people who vote for Mauer or Tex. I just don’t think that the vote should be based on their stats, cause there isn’t a way to statistically measure everything that a player brings to the table.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:32 pm
Dave that is a great point. What is a replacement level catcher? Omir Santos? Robinson Cancel? Jose Molina? They all are different.
I have nothing against WAR, but I think we put too much value on a stat that is largely unproven.
Btw- lost in all this is that fact that no one can be upset if Mauer wins the MVP. You can’t say the same for the Pendleton, Gibson, or Eckersley years. Although Eck was damn valuable to that Oakland team.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
Francis:
I didn’t mean that if your team doesn’t win, you have no value. What I meant was that if you help your team win, you provide more value. After all, your stats can be great, but if you can’t hit in the clutch or only drive in runs when your team is winning, then you’re not as valuable and someone who gets those hits that win ballgames.
Also, with respect, your mortgage analogy is off. If I bring $5,000 of a $10,000 mortgage, I’ve paid off half of it. If I drive in 2 runs and the team loses 4-2, I haven’t earned my team half a win. I understand your point, though. After all, let’s say Mauer hits a 9th inning grand slam but the Twins still lose 5-4, that’s still a bit hit that can spark an offense and start a winning streak. Ball players are people, not just statistics, and they’re state of mind can greatly affect their performance. But that’s my point. There are so many things in this game that can’t be measured. Maybe they’re small things, but add them all up and they can make a big difference. Stats don’t tell you everything, and the criteria of the MVP says nothing about stats.
August 17th, 2009 at 5:51 pm
Dave
I agree with you and that was well said. But, get ready that’s going to open the flood gates.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
Please check the home/road splits for Teixeira. New Yankee Stadium should win the MVP award. Jeter has been far better than Teix this year. I am shocked that Yankee fans are clamoring for Teix to get the MVP over Jeter. It’s the only box left unchecked on his already sterling resume.
Of course, if any Teix supporters had a modicum of objectivity, they’d see that Mauer is a superior player in every way. To have a hitter of his skill playing catcher makes him literally the most valuable commodity as a player. He is having the best offensive season by a catcher ever. Teixeira is having something like the 200th best season ever by a first baseman. That this debate even exists underscores the ignorance of so many who watch baseball.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
TB
Check out Piazza’s 1997. Mauer, right now, is on pace to match that, but by no means can you say this year is better than Piazza with LA in 97.
That team made the playoffs and Mike was robbed.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:11 pm
Mike,
I appreciate you continuing to engage the comments and the civility that everyone has displayed, but at least to this point, giving Mark Teixera the MVP award over Joe Mauer would be a travesty. One, could you look at his home and road splits this year?
Home
308/397/634/1.031 19 HR 50 RBI 163 OPS+
Road
262/368/480/848 11 HR 36 RBI 131 OPS+
If that is MVP caliber when you have a catcher putting up 180+ OPS+ for a bad team (though with a arguably better first baseman!), this award has lost any meaning.
Justifying passing Mauer because Piazza got robbed only weakens your argument, how does repeating past mistakes make it any better?
It just boggles my mind how anyone who follows baseball could make the argument that a First Baseman having albeit a pretty good season, is more valuable than a catcher having an historically great one.
This is a sad debate in my mind that shows people still dont come close to understanding player value. You replace Tex with Morneau, Cabrera or even Youkilis, do the Yankees really get any worse at all? They could even be better. You replace Mauer’s season with any other catcher in the league, heck, of the past 5 years, the impact would be staggering.
August 17th, 2009 at 6:33 pm
John:
“You replace Mauer’s season with any other catcher in the league, heck, of the past 5 years, the impact would be staggering.”
Actually, you could replace Mauer with Posada from 2007, and it wouldn’t be all that big of an impact. Posada also had a historic year for a catcher (not as good as Mauer, but still exceptional), but came in 6th in MVP voting (A-Rod won it with his crazy power numbers):
(BA, HR, RBI, OPS, OPS+)
Posada: .338, 20, 90, .970, 154
ARod: .314, 54, 156, 1.067, 177
That isn’t an argument against Mauer, it’s just a response to your post.
August 17th, 2009 at 7:38 pm
This “discussion” is laughable and Mike Silva’s reasoning drips with subjectivity. The only reason my attention was directed to this “article” is because of how unbelievably silly it is. MVP criteria is clear, the disparity in stats (between Mauer and Texeira) is also clear. If members of the AP were less impressed when it comes to weighless story lines and as another fan wrote, “unquantifiable” assertions then we wouldn’t have had to mention the MVP snubs of the past. Furthermore, if members of the periphery press like Mike Silva were baseball fans first and regional fans last, such ridiculous sentiment wouldn’t pervade the sports world. The stats and facts have already been discussed so allow me to offer some subjectivity of my own. Texeira is a -great- player and his defense was underrated in the commentary on this article, but Joe Mauer is an absolute monster. There is no way that Mark Texeira is MORE-VALUABLE to his team than Joe Mauer is (literally, the stats speak for themselves). You cite the Twins’ standing as some kind of absolute rule and then lament the other MVP snubs of the past like you’re not colored with subjectivity. I can’t write enough bad about this article…or blog…or whatever this is. Joe Mauer for MVP, Mike Silva for Retirement.
August 17th, 2009 at 7:53 pm
How can you even consider Tex for MVP with such horrible home/road splits? For half the year he’s a league average 1st basemen!
August 17th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
League average first basemen? This is getting insane I think the stat crowd has gone over the top. Your basically saying he’s no different than a Casey Kotchman. This is getting a little ridiculous
August 17th, 2009 at 9:50 pm
Dave,
You shouldn’t penalize Mauer for not playing until April 22. True, he wasn’t providing the Twins any value, but that’s better than Teixeira’s negative value in April (.200/.367/.371 with 3 home runs). If you’re calculating value, position has to be taken into account. There are, in the American League alone, FIVE first basemen who provide a similar level of offense to Teixeira (Youkilis, Pena, Morneau, Cabrera, and Morales). Meanwhile, the only catcher you could compare to Mauer without coming off as certifiably insane is Victor Martinez, a mere 230(!) points behind Mauer in OPS, and close in HR and RBI. That defines valuable, and when you throw in that he’s the best defensive catcher in the game not named Yadier Molina, whereas Teixeira is again comparable to Pena, Youkilis, and Morneau (to say nothing of Pujols, Gonzalez, Lee, or Loney in the other league) there is no reasoning that Teixeira is more valuable to his team than Mauer. None. They’re going to the playoffs because they have a VASTLY superior roster at every position but catcher, first base (see?), closer, and center field. Because of that, and because he plays in New York and half of his home games in Coors East, a certain segment of the population can’t countenance anyone else for MVP.
August 17th, 2009 at 10:24 pm
“Posada also had a historic year for a catcher (not as good as Mauer, but still exceptional), ”
There is a huge difference between having the best OPS+ in baseball as one of the most valuable defensive players in baseball, and being in the top 10 in OPS+ when you are just an adequate defensive catcher.
And while 1987 was the greatest offensive year by baseball’s greatest hitting catcher of all time, Mauer’s year is roughly equal to it, and Piazza was a poor defensive catcher. Mauer is having the greatest season ever by a catcher, so if you say he’s not worthy of this years MVP, no catcher ever was or will be.
This year in the AL, the average catcher is hitting
.256/.317/409/.726
and the average first baseman is hitting
.270/.352/.485/.837
That is why defense matters. Catchers defense is so important teams are willing to put players there who can’t hit at all. Defense at first is so unimportant, teams are willing to put anyone who can hit (Giambi?) there and tolerate their lapses.
Tex’s OPS is about 13% higher than the average first baseman. Mauers OPS is over 60% higher than the average catcher. It’s about 20% higher than Tex’s. Replacing Joe Mauer’s performance this year is far harder than replacing Tex’s, That’s why he’s Most Valuable.
And Mike, the fact that you don’t know what “replacement player” means in the WAR stat, means you shouldn’t be arguing it. Replacement player is the level of performance that’s easily gotten from widely available minimum wage players, i.e. AAA players.
I’m not going to argue WAR is perfect, or exactly accurate. But in this case it doesn’t have to be, because the difference is so huge. Even if you believe UZR under-rates Tex, and I do, it doesn’t matter because even the best first baseman in the league don’t have as much defensive impact as the average catcher, and Joe isn’t average by any stretch.
Joe Mauer outhits Tex every day while spending hours in the crouch wearing the tools of ignorance, and suffering collision after collision at the plate. He is doing things at the plate that only HOF level catchers like Piazza and Posada have ever come close to, and without his defensive brilliance.
The history of catchers says he can’t keep this up for very many years, so for the love of god stop trying to steal his MVP (for the 2nd time in his career already) and open your eyes to appreciate something you will never again see in your lifetime. A catcher who is both the leagues best offensive player and one of it’s best defensive players in the same year.
August 17th, 2009 at 10:48 pm
So Dave just said, twice, that the MVP, the league’s best player, should not be based on stats.
Let’s keep in mind that the ONLY reason Teixeira is an MVP candidate is for a statistic, RBI.
August 18th, 2009 at 7:37 am
Really, Mike Silva and Dave L, you don’t use WAR because you don’t know who the replacement is. How do you not get it? it’s so effing simple. Replacement=cheap guy you get for Major League Minimum. Is that hard?
Mauer>Teixeira. Simple. Just looking at the stats, not even taking account that Mauer plays catcher, and Teixeira has a wiffle ball park.
August 18th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Yes, WAR/WARP/etc are “arbitrarily” defined. Catch it, it’s the same arbitrary level for EVERYONE (20 runs below an average player for the position). So no, that argument does not work.
I just don’t get how anyone can look at their rate stats and think this is close. If Mauer had a better team, this isn’t even a debate.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Couple of quick responses:
Randy Hill:
You said Mauer is a great defensive catcher, and I agree, but looking at his stats, he’s not as good as he was in previous years. In fact, in only 73 games behind the plate, he has as many errors as all of last year, a worse caught stealing percentage, and 3 more passed balls. So while he is a good defensive catcher, that’s not his real strength this year. Plus he’s DH’ed in over 20% of his games, so you have to reduce his defensive contributions a bit there too. As a comparison, Mauer has played about half as many games behind the plate as Posada did in 2007, so if you double his stats you end up with very similar numbers across the board (with Mauer throwing out a few more runners). Doesn’t exactly stand out above the crowd…
Owen:
Actually, I can penalize Mauer for only playing in 93 out of 118 games so far this season. The second criteria plainly states “Number of games played.” It’s one of the only criteria that is not very debatable. After all, you have zero value to the team if you aren’t playing.
Steven:
I know what WAR means and how they come up with it. But it doesn’t mean anything in the real world, cause you can’t actually measure how the team or the actual replacement would do if the player wasn’t on the team. You can use it to say “Player X is this much better than an average entry-level player”, but that doesn’t mean that is who the replacement would be. And even if is was, that doesn’t mean that the replacement would perform like that. After all, Mauer hasn’t performed at this level every year of his career, so how can you compare his to some fictitious player that may or may not perform below the league average and say “see how much worse it would be if Mauer wasn’t on the team”. It’s a complete what-if game, and what-if’s can have any outcome that you want them to have.
Joe R:
I didn’t mean to imply that MVP should not be based on stats. What I mean is that they shouldn’t ONLY be based on stats. After all, stats are not as objective as people think. For example, Cano and Jeter have had similar stats through the first half of the season, but Jeter is considered much more valuable because Cano had very poor stats with runners in scoring position (among other reasons), so his numbers are deceptive.
Well that about wraps it up for me. Thanks for the discussion, everyone. Now that I’ve spoken as objectively as I can, I’ll throw in my own personal opinions on this topic:
- I’m not a Yankees fan or a Twins fan, and personally don’t particularly like one player over the other.
- I’m leaning toward Mauer as MVP, not Tex, but I won’t make any decisions until the season is over.
- I now see that it’s almost impossible to have an actual debate about the MVP criteria, what they mean, and how the winner should be determined, cause just about everyone has already decided how they’re going to vote, and what they think the MVP is. Until/unless MLB more specifically defines the criteria for who the MVP should be, this debate is similar to a religious one – everything is open to interpretation, there are no rules or facts to back up anyone’s interpretation of the MVP criteria, and no one will budge from their own beliefs on what defines an MVP. I personally place a lot of value on non-statistical contributions, but that’s my own approach to this and my own definition of “value”. If you place all of your value on stats, then that’s your prerogative, and there’s nothing at all wrong with that.
Thanks!
August 18th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
@Mike
Much earlier you said that piazza was robbed in ’97 and Mauer is not going to have a better season than piazza. I actually agree with you there but…You disregard the closeness of Walker’s and Piazza’s Numbers that year. Walkers OPS was 1.172 and Piazza’s was 1.070.
Mauer’s currant OPS(including two homers tonight) 1.099 where as tex’s OPS is .931.
Its amazing…your best argument is terrible.
August 18th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
Joey
I understand where you are going with that. My main point about Piazza being robbed wasn’t the closeness of OPS, but the fact that he performed on a superior team. Also, Walker was helped with the rarified air of Colorado (I will admit his home/road splits, unlike some other years weren’t terrible).
Mauer will likely end up with simlar numbers to Piazza, but on a second division club. Teixeira very well could end up with 405 homers and 130 Ribbies for the best team in baseball.
Again, can’t deny the season Mauer is having, but Teixeira is equally as good in some respects.
August 19th, 2009 at 12:36 am
So Mike’s main argument is that RBI is an extremely important stat and that having teammates who get on base regularly makes you more valuable. It’s ridiculous to believe that runners on base more often when you are up makes YOU a better player. Even a .250 with NO power could put up HUGE RBI numbers if his teammates were on base all the time. Saying that RBIs show how good a player is is such a hopelessly outdated way of thinking that no self respecting baseball fan with an iota of knowledge would agree with. Your sentence of “My main point about Piazza being robbed wasn’t the closeness of OPS, but the fact that he performed on a superior team” clearly states that you COMPLETELY IGNORE THE NUMBER 1 CRITERIA FOR MVP SELECTION, A PLAYERS STRENGTH ON OFFENSE AND DEFENSE. Have a good day and may you one day become intelligent.
August 19th, 2009 at 3:55 am
Keep in mind that even in Piazza’s best offensive seasons, his production was still comparable to the league leaders, especially in the context of that era. Who even touches Mauer this year?
August 19th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
What’s truly laughable is that people like Mike Silva believe that Teixeira has made such a vast impact on the Yankees. Um, it couldn’t possibly be that his numbers benefit from playing in a lineup that includes 7 total players (77%) in the top 30 in OPS (AL). Think of how ridiculous Mauer’s numbers (or Morneu or Kubel for that matter) would be if they played in that lineup. Minnesota has only 3 players in the top 30 in OPS. Two theories: either the NYY roster is far superior (possible) or the new Yankee Stadium is a cake walk to hit in (also possible). Either hypothesis subtracts from Teixeira’s value as an MVP candidate. He is simply not the best player in the league… perhaps not even on his own team.
August 20th, 2009 at 12:43 am
What an awful article.
August 20th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
The fact that you bring up this line in your original post “The fact that the Minnesota Twins are under .500 should disqualify him immediately.” then proceed to follow that with “My main point about Piazza being robbed wasn’t the closeness of OPS, but the fact that he performed on a superior team.” So… your going to rob Mauer of the MVP award for the same reason you’re saying Piazza was robbed? Are you really that much of a homer?
August 20th, 2009 at 2:53 pm
Sean
I give an edge to players on winning teams. That is my position. Mauer is making a great argument because of an historic season. Other than Teixeira there is no one else I would pick.
I think Teixeira would be suffering the same thing if he was having this season in Atlanta or Texas.
August 21st, 2009 at 3:26 pm
The way I see it, Mauer being on a weaker team actually makes him MORE valuable to his team. If Tex were to get hurt, I think the Yankees winning % wouldn’t suffer too much because they have plenty of all stars around (Damon, Posada, ARod, Jeter, Cano, Swisher etc.) to pick up the slack. They have so much offense that you could probably replace Tex with a pitcher and they would still score almost the same number of runs. His defense clearly seperates him from someone like Giambi, but his offensive value to the Yankees has been over stated in this article because the Yankees have more than enough.
Now, take Mauer out of the Twins lineup. You have one star in Morneau, two good hitters in Cuddeyer and Kubel and a collection of some of the worst hitting everyday players in baseball. Yet the Twins are still 6th in the league in runs scored and still in the AL Central race. Why? One reason: they have the best player in the AL: Joe Mauer.
Factor in primary position, home road splits, and numbers in cluth situations, all of which favor Mauer dramatically, and the difference isn’t even close. I can’t see any argument for picking Tex over Mauer. It just doesn’t make any sense. Why is Tex considered a viable candidate in the first place? After Mauer the best candidates are Jeter, Cabrera, and believe it or not, Jason Bartlett who in addition to playing a solid shortstop has put up a line of 344/.396/.539 for the still in the wild card race Rays.
August 30th, 2009 at 10:27 pm
Silva why are you so hopeless.
Mauer is better across the board is less games and at the most demanding position. And Teixeira only has more rbi since he’s been up with 100′s of more base runners than Mauer. Teixeira is merely okay with RISP while Mauer is batting much higher with RISP and 2 outs.
Mauer can’t do it all himself. This isn;t a qb or a star basketball player. He gets 3-4 at bats er game period. Tell me what is he supposed to do, use our old childhood sandlot rules of having ghost runners when we couldn’t fully frill out lineups?
September 4th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Mike,
Why do you penalize a player for what his teammates do? Without Mauer the Twins wouldn’t be in the race. With him they’re still on the cusp. You’re penalizing him because the Twins have had injuries and sub-par performances out of their pitching staff. Does this make any sense to anyone?
Get past the old school crap of eliminating guys who aren’t on winning teams and realize that, yes, Mauer is the MVP this year, and it isn’t even close.
September 5th, 2009 at 8:24 pm
Stats by Month for Teixeira:
avg obp slg ops
April .200 .367 .371 .738
May .330 .391 .748 1.138 13HR 34RBI
June .263 .391 .495 .886
July .295 .358 .509 .867
August .294 .391 .523 .914
September .091 .333 .091 .424
Aside from a great May, pretty standard run of the mill first baseman production.
Mauer:
May .414 .500 .838 1.338 11HR 32RBI
June .353 .407 .490 .897
July .309 .377 .468 .845
August 391 .449 .652 1.101
September .273 .333 .364 .697
Mauer destroys Teixeira’s May and has better overall numbers since – at catcher no less.
Teixeira away:
.261 .373 .466 .839
Mauer away:
.358 .423 .587 1.010
Pretty pedestrian line away for Teixeira. Elite away numbers for mauer. In fact in relation Mauer’s home numbers:
374 .444 .631 1.075
He’s not a home hitter. His numbers barely drop off his insane home line to give a mere elite away line.
It’s not to late to apologize for your ridiculous article.
September 20th, 2009 at 4:09 am
I’ve never seen such a civil comment thread in response to such an poorly thought out post. We all know that Mike is stuck in 1980′s thinking, but how did you people all manage to stay civil?
Reading this, I wanted to explode at least 5 times. Well done commentators, well done.
Mike, brush up on knowledge. I suggest you sit down under a nice, shady tree with a laptop and read FanGraphs and Beyond the Boxscore. Your way of thought is out dated, and well, flat out wrong.
Mauer has competition for MVP. And it’s not from Tex. It’s from Greinke.