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Kuroda, Not Pineda, is Poised for Breakout Year


By Mike Silva ~ January 30th, 2012. Filed under: New York Yankees.

The deal that sent Michael Pineda to the Yankees has made him the talk of the rotation, but the real breakout candidate this year could be free agent Hiroki Kuroda.

Kuroda is 36, so calling him a breakout candidate probably sounds odd; pitchers that are already past the age of 35 don’t normally improve significantly. He is, however, entering his fifth season in the States, and has shown improvement every season since he debuted with the Dodgers in 2008.

Year Tm W L ERA GS IP H ERA+ WHIP BB/9 SO/9
2007 -min 12 8 3.56 26 179.2 176 1.213 2.1 6.2 HIR · JPCL
2008 LAD 9 10 3.73 31 183.1 181 112 1.216 2.1 5.7
2009 LAD-min 0 0 3.29 3 13.2 15 1.171 0.7 6.6 SBR · CALL
2009 LAD 8 7 3.76 20 117.1 110 106 1.142 1.8 6.7
2010 LAD 11 13 3.39 31 196.1 180 114 1.161 2.2 7.3
2011 LAD 13 16 3.07 32 202.0 196 121 1.213 2.2 7.2
4 Seasons 41 46 3.45 114 699.0 667 114 1.187 2.1 6.7
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/30/2012.

It’s not easy to post a 3.45 ERA and have a career record of 41-46. Last season, he lost 16 games despite pitching to a 3.07 ERA in a shade over 200 innings. According to ESPN, Kuroda was in the bottom part of the league in terms of run support (5.26). The run support stat measures a team’s runs scored (average, per 9 innings pitched) while the individual is the pitcher of record.

To put it in perspective, Ivan Nova (8.82), A.J. Burnett (7.19), CC Sabathia (6.98) and Bartolo Colon (6.41) all were in the Top 35 in the game in terms of run support. Only the Rangers Derek Holland received more run support than Nova.

It requires a bit of luck to benefit from some of the best run support in baseball. However, if could receive similar support to say, A.J. Burnett, you have a 20-game winner on your hands. It’s probably fair to say that Kuroda will fall into that “top tier” of run support, unless you believe the Yankees offense is headed for a huge regression.

Not bad for only a 1 year/$10 million dollar investment.

I predict the veteran Japanese righty will win 18-20 games and become a solid #2 behind Sabathia. Pineda, although a promising arm for the future, will struggle as he continues to figure out how to win at the big league level.

Kuroda’s career-high in wins came in 2005 when he was pitching in the Japan Central League for the Hiroshima Carp. He finished 15-12 that season with a 3.17 ERA.

That might change in 2012, as he finally has an offense that could give him the run support to make him flirt with 20 wins.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com
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3 Responses to Kuroda, Not Pineda, is Poised for Breakout Year

  1. R
    January 30th, 2012 at 8:18 pm

    Um… Yeah… No.

    Ever heard of FIP and xFIP? How about ERA+? Just take a look at those, there’s no way to predict a 20 game winner off of those. 16 is reasonable with 18 as a ceiling, but 20 is ridiculous. Mind you CC didn’t even win 20 last year, it’s not that easy.

  2. Ryan
    January 31st, 2012 at 6:44 am

    Pitching in yankee stadium is gonna be a little different. He’s gonna have the highest ERA of his career to go along with high run support. I see him as a 15+ winner for sure but he’s not gonna be facing a pitcher in that 9 slot anymore. If I had to guess i’d say 3.80 ERA with 16 wins.

  3. Chuck Johnson
    January 31st, 2012 at 11:01 am

    “I predict the veteran Japanese righty will win 18-20 games..”

    13-15 tops.

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