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Angel Pagan: What Does the Future Hold?


By Mike Silva ~ August 9th, 2011. Filed under: Mike Silva, New York Mets.

You could argue that Angel Pagan has been the biggest disappointment on the 2011 Mets.

Since staying healthy and playing full time in 2009, Pagan produced a .296 batting average, with an average of 8 homers, 50 RBI, and 26 stolen bases. He appeared to have the potential to be a mini version of Johnny Damon with a blend of speed and power. When Jose Reyes was lost for the season in 2009, Pagan did a great job providing similar production from the leadoff spot.

This year has not produced similar results. Despite launching his fifth home run last night, Pagan struck out in a key spot with a runner on in the ninth. On the season he’s hitting .245 with 5 homer, 22 stolen bases, and an uninspiring OBP of .310. To be fair, he’s been asked to hit in the middle of the order due to injuries to Ike Davis and David Wright, as well as the trade of Carlos Beltran. He also suffered an oblique injury of his own, which is known to hamper players all season.  Regardless, a decision must be made on Pagan who is arbitration eligible this offseason.

Pagan is only making $3.5 million dollars, which makes him cost effective, but the Mets need more production from his spot now that Beltran is gone. He might also be asked to take the fulltime leadoff role in the event that Reyes leaves via free agency. It’s a role that some say he didn’t embrace when Reyes was injured earlier in the year.

Should the Mets non-tender and move away from Pagan? There are some CF free agent options available.

Center fielders (age in parenthesis) 
Rick Ankiel (32)
Carlos Beltran (35)
Willie Bloomquist (34) – $1.1MM mutual option with a $150K buyout
Mike Cameron (39)
Coco Crisp (32)
David DeJesus (32)
Scott Hairston (32)
Andruw Jones (35)
Nate McLouth (30) – $10.65MM club option with a $1.25MM buyout
Corey Patterson (32)
Cody Ross (31)
Grady Sizemore (29) – $8.5MM club option with a $500K buyout

Former Rutgers product David DeJesus is an interesting name to look out for. He is having a miserable year in Oakland (.234/7/32), but during his 8 years in Kansas City he was a .300 hitter who could pop 10 -12 homers and drive in 70 runs. Exactly what you would want from Pagan. He doesn’t have the ability to steal any bases, but he is more than adequate defensively.

I would suggest a taking a chance on a high ceiling player like Sizemore or McLouth, but I suspect their price range will be outside the Mets budget.

It appears the best course of action is to re-sign Angel Pagan and hope he can rediscover the player that showed so much promise in 2009-2010. When you balance upside and cost there doesn’t appear to be a better choice.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com
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7 Responses to Angel Pagan: What Does the Future Hold?

  1. LongTimeFan
    August 9th, 2011 at 3:22 pm

    Mike, I don’t think Pagan’s a Met next season. He’s playing subpar on both sides of the ball, his only value above the others is in SB’s. With another arb season he’ll be making 4-5 mil, much too expensive for what he provides. I just don’t see what he’s currently showing as impressive for Alderson to pay those bucks.

    Re: His hitting, he’s locking his hips given the foot of his landing leg points horizontal and not vertical to the pitcher. Even if he fixes that prior to season’s end, his D just doesn’t cut it. He better pick it up soon or seems to me there’s little to no chance Sandy will be impressed enough to retain him.

    Kirk N is coming off season ending shoulder surgery so who knows whether he’ll be ready and degree of seasoning needed in minors. Best bet I think is to let Pagan go, and look for short term replacement until the young players like Kirk and Den Dekker are ready.

    I also think Mets should turn Valdespin into CF starting today. Mets have shortage of CF depth but have abundance of second base depth. Move the speedy but middle-infield, error-prone Jordany to where he could be most useful at some point in 2012 on a team trending away from speed which is mistake in my opinion.

    Another option is for Mets, in lateral move, to trade second base depth for CF prospect ready to step in. Or trade some big leaguers for big league CFer.

  2. Mike I
    August 9th, 2011 at 3:29 pm

    Jason Bay is the biggest disappointment on the Mets. End of story. We knew Bay was not going to hit 36 homers as a Met, but nine doubles in 86 games! He is averaging one double per 35 at bats. He has a total of 20 extra base hits. Reyes has 16 triples.

    While Pagan has been a disappointment, he is not even in my top three of Met disappointments. My list is Bay, Pelfrey and Thole. Last night was a great example of Big Pelf coming up small. You get a 4-1 lead against the Padres, a good pitcher is not going to give that up. Opponents hit over .270 against him and he has never developed a true strikeout pitch. He can get two strikes, but more often than not he fails at getting strike three. I thought Thole would be a better hitter for average than he has been and he has been poor behind the plate. The future catcher of the Mets may not be Josh Thole.
    I still like Pagan better than the list of players that you listed.
    DeJesus has 10 stolen bases in his last 330 games. That just does not work. Bloomquist would be a nice addition because he can play infield or outfield, but I would not want him as my starting CF.

  3. LongTimeFan
    August 9th, 2011 at 3:59 pm

    I’ve been a big Pagan fan but he’s not pulling his weight for what he’ll get in arb next year. I think Mets should go in another direction. A good CF is imperative especially in a park as big as Citi. Pagan doesn’t cut it at the plate and defensively. Defensively he’s reverted to what he was when he played for Willie Randolph’s Mets in spring training, when he hit well, opened eyes but was raw defensively but made the team when Alou needed DL.

    I like Bay a lot, think he’s great role model and someone who plays hard all the time and is fundamentally very sound.

    Also think he’s coming out of his drought. I’m encouraged by his recent success especially the homers and think that will continue.

    I agree about Pelf and Thole. I think both should be traded. Thole is backup catcher who plays bad D. He hits better when he lowers his bat at set-up. This year he sometimes holds his arms high which slows his readiness and timing.

    Pelf just can’t seem to harness his talent with any consistency, doesn’t have the mental makeup this team needs. If they keep Pelf, he’ll cost more this season….another arb year.

    BJ Upton is on the blocks. Speed, power D, but poor BA and OBP. the past three years. Given he’s had seasons in which that wasn’t the case, I think he’s worth trade considerations.

  4. LongTimeFan
    August 9th, 2011 at 4:01 pm

    About Pelf, meant to say that next year, he’ll cost more than this season

  5. Chuck Johnson
    August 9th, 2011 at 8:54 pm

    “His hitting, he’s locking his hips given the foot of his landing leg points horizontal and not vertical to the pitcher.”

    The front foot should be horizontal to the pitcher.

  6. LongTimeFan
    August 9th, 2011 at 9:48 pm

    Toes pointing toward the pitcher – that’s vertical.

  7. Chuck Johnson
    August 9th, 2011 at 11:16 pm

    I know what it means.

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