Freakonomics conducted a  Quorum. We rounded up a handful of sports economists and asked them the following question: What proposed realignment changes seem to make the most sense from a competitive and economic standpoint for Major League Baseball? The answers varied, which you could read for yourself at their site, but Dave Berri, a sports economist and an associate professor of applied economics at Southern Utah University, suggested that expanded playoffs is really motivated by Bud Selig’s desire to reduce the chances of the Yankees to winning the World Series.

Last July, the topic of parity came up right after the Miami Heat signed Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade to form a “super team.” A day later, the Yankees attempted to build a “dream rotation” by working out a deal with Seattle for Cliff Lee. I did a little research and calculated the number of teams that have won a title the last 20 years (1989-2009) in the four major North American sports.

MLB – 13

NBA- 7

NHL- 12

NFL – 12

When you add in the 2011 World Series Champion Giants, it brings the total to 14 teams. Baseball has more parity than even the “patron saint” of sports parity, the NFL.

What could be a concern is how a majority of teams have taken the principles exposed by Oakland GM Billy Beane in “Moneyball,” and made it standard practice. What was once a competitive advantage is now standard practice by most teams, even the Yankees.

Beane recently told Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated that he saw the game headed into the same direction as Premier League soccer, where team’s that spend the most money typically win. ”What you’ll find is that the window for a small market team will grow smaller and eventually go away completely,” Beane said. “We had seven years. Tampa Bay — and they are very, very smart — has made it to the playoffs two out of the past three years, and may not make it this year, and then what? To have any kind of window will take building a team organically, having to have something like 80 percent of your roster [homegrown]. That is extremely hard.

I understand Beane’s point, but any team with $100 million dollar payroll, or half what the Yankees typically enjoy, should be able to compete for a championship. The fact that Oakland, Kansas City, and Pittsburgh are historically well below that number might be more of an indication the economics of the country are shifting away from those cities being viable big league towns. For example, you would never put a professional franchise in Des Moines, Iowa?

If the local market can’t produce a team that can support a $100 million dollar payroll, then perhaps it’s not a big league town. The county has changed over the 100 plus years of baseball history. It’s possible that franchises have become outdated. At one point the A’s had the highest payroll in the major, now they are in the bottom tier.

Ironically, Oakland’s payroll this year is $66. 6 million, an increase of nearly 30% so they are trending in the right direction.

I support the extra Wild Card, but not because it will “derail the Yankees,” but keep more of the league engaged throughout the summer. The extra Wild Card will just make it harder for the non-division winners to advance. If the Yankees are good enough to win the division, then it won’t impact their World Series odds. Besides, since 2001, the Yankees have only one championship. That is a 90% fail rate, or 15% higher than what they have been historically.

When you went to the two-division format you had a better argument that it was to prevent the Yankees from winning every year. Which they basically did in the thirties, forties, and fifties.

***

By the way, if the two Wild Card system was enacted this year the Braves and Yankees would have a comfortable lead for the first Wild Card, with six teams in the National League fighting for the second spot, and four teams jockeying in the American League. I used a benchmark of 6 games out or less to label a contender. That would mean about half the cities in baseball would be talking about a pennant race instead of next year, or NFL Training Camp.

***

The Mets are 148-145 all-time versus the Florida Marlins. Despite the winning record, the Fish have been a thorn in this team’s side since their inception.

Florida beat them for the Wild Card in 1997, was a major reason in keeping the Mets out of the postseason in 1998 (5 losses to a team that went 54-108), and of course ended their seasons in 2007 and 2008.

This year, the Marlins are probably one of the reasons the Mets aren’t seriously talking Wild Card. They have lost 7 of 10 to the Fish, including two gut-wrenching defeats during this series. The Mets could be 5.5 games out of the playoffs if not for the late inning heroics of Jack McKeon‘s squad.

To be fair, the Marlins have been a tremendous help to the Mets. During their two historic fire sales they sent Al Leiter, Mike Piazza, Dennis Cook, Carlos Delgado, and Paul Lo Duca here for a very reasonable price. Unless you are still pining for A.J. Burnett, Mike Jacobs, or Preston Wilson. You could argue the Marlins have a lot to do with the 2000 pennant and 2006 NL East title.

***

I have been preaching about the Yankees needing a quality LOOGY to push Boone Logan into a second lefty role for well over a year. Pedro Feliciano was supposed to solve that issue, but his shoulder gave out. The Yankees recently released Randy Flores, but have J.C. Romero pitching decently down in Scranton (LH hitting .167 against him). It may behoove them to bring in another veteran lefty let go yesterday, Arthur Rhodes.

Rhodes is 41 years old, but has pitched some of the best baseball of his career the last 3 seasons with Florida and Cincinnati. For his career, left-handed hitters are hitting .216 (.604 OPS). The Rangers handed him a huge contract his winter ($3.9 million plus option), and have seen him pitch good, not great, as lefties have a .715 OPS against him.

I am assuming Rhodes will get a big league deal. Rumors had St. Louis interested in his services. If I were the Yankees I would at least give him a look, unless there is an injury we don’t know about that is hampering his effectiveness.

The irony of Rhodes is how the Yankees have torched him even in his most effective seasons. He is 5-10, with a 7.33 ERA in 86 career innings against the Bombers.

Even if it doesn’t work out will it kill the Yankees to lose Luis Ayala, Cory Wade, or Steve Garrison off the 40-man roster? I don’t think so.

By the way, another potential late season LOOGY addition- Manny Banuelos- made his Triple-A debut last night and held his own nicely. He went 5 innings, walked 3, struck out 8, and gave up only 2 runs.

You can’t put a price on experience, and Rhodes certainly has that in his 20 years of big league service.

***

Lucas Duda didn’t get an opportunity to hurt the Marlins last night as Jack McKeon brought in his LOOGY, Randy Choate, to start the ninth inning. Duda did go 1-2 with a RBI to raise his average to .268 on the season. He appears to have come a long way since his 2 for 20 start. The recent string of long home runs off Marlins closer Leo Nunez has to help the confidence, which Terry Collins cited as Duda’s biggest opportunity.

Duda is going to be an important part of the 2012 Mets, who undoubtedly will spend their available payroll on Jose Reyes. The Mets have about 64 million in payroll committed to the roster next season. If Reyes gets somewhere in the $20 million dollar range the Mets will have about $16 million to spend on the rest of the roster. There are a number of low cost players such as Dillon Gee, Dan Murphy, Pedro Beato, Bobby Parnell, etc. Even if they re-sign Reyes and get a healthy Ike Davis back, they are going to need a corner outfield bat with some pop. This becomes even more important if Jason Bay continues his good field/no hit descent as a player.

Clearly, Duda is a downgrade over Carlos Beltran in his prime, but can you get similar production to what we saw in Buffalo? I don’t expect the .300 batting average, but 20 homers, 85 RBI, and an OBP around .360 seems reasonable. You will need a RH alternative since he hasn’t shown the ability to hit big league left-handers (Scott Hairston?), but that is hardly an issue.

A productive Duda allows the Mets to allocate their remaining finances on some veteran starting pitching and arbitration raises. With better pitching in 2012 I suspect we will be talking about a serious Wild Card race around here next year; even if it is with a team that cut payroll about 25 percent.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

View all posts by Mike Silva
Mikes website

Tags: Arthur Rhodes, Atlanta Braves, Billy Beane, Boone Logan, Bud Selig, Florida Marlins, Freakonomics, J.C. Romero, Jack McKeon, Kansas City Royals, Lucas Duda, Manny Banuelos, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Pedro Feliciano, Pittsburgh Pirates, Texas Rangers