At the beginning of the season I thought the Mets would win 85 games and be on the peripheral of the Wild Card race. I thought there would be a point this summer where they would tease the fans; making everyone believe they could pull off an unlikely playoff appearance. In the end, I thought they would fall short, but show progress in a transitional year. I still believe the Mets will show progress, but this Interleague road trip could be the death knell on the 2011 Mets.

After last night’s 8-1 loss to the Rangers, the Mets play two more games in Arlington and a three game set in Detroit. Both teams are strong American League offenses that will be difficult for the Mets pitchers to hold down. Terry Collins will be doing back flips if they come away with a .500 road trip.

They then make a brief stop at Citi Field for three games with the Yankees. The Subway Series is always an event, so two out of three isn’t out of the question. Then the final blow: a seven game West Coast trip to Los Angeles and San Francisco leading up to the All Star Break.

What’s best case scenario? If the Mets go 9-7, they will be a game over at the break (46-45). Going 7-9 might be more realistic, and that would put them at 44-47 heading into the All Star Game. Even .500 will have them a game under. None of the under .500 scenario leads me to believe they can honestly call themselves a Wild Card contender in the middle of July.

While they are playing this tough stretch, Atlanta – the current Wild Card leader- has their own West Coast trip to San Diego and Seattle. They then return home to face the Orioles, Rockies, and Phillies. A much easier schedule for the Braves, who have the type of pitching that keeps them in every ballgame. We saw last night the Mets can’t say the same. Don’t forget the half dozen teams in-between the Mets and Braves, which includes Colorado, Pittsburgh, St. Louis or Milwaukee, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. The National League Wild Card is a real muck right now.

If David Wright and Ike Davis were healthy, I would believe the Mets have a chance to withstand this stretch. Without them, their pitching is simply not good enough to hold teams to 2 or 3 runs a night. The starters will have trouble holding down some of these teams offensively. The bullpen is just not deep enough as well. Without any power in the lineup, they will be forced to string hits together. Not an easy task for any offense, much less one that is as shorthanded as the Mets.

The 2011 end is near. I suspect, at the end of all this, the big talk will be what can the Mets get in return for K-Rod and Carlos Beltran, as well as whether they should deal Jose Reyes. How they can leverage moves this year to improve for 2012 will be the real narrative of the season.

I will say that I do believe Terry Collins group will make it interesting and go down fighting. They may be short on talent, but the skipper deserves credit for keeping them engaged when their roster is so clearly short on a nightly basis. That is more than what I could say for his recent predecessors.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

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Tags: Atlanta Braves, Carlos Beltran, Cincinnati Reds, David Wright, Detroit Tigers, Ike Davis, Jose Reyes, K-Rod, Milwaukee Brewers, National League Wild Card, New York Mets, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants, Terry Collins, Texas Rangers