The Mets needed a slugger. Since a bad hip ended Carlos Delgado‘s career in 2009 the Mets have lacked a legitimate cleanup hitter. Carlos Beltran and David Wright were thrust in that role in 2009, neither of which profiles well in that spot. The Mets best offensive teams had Beltran third, Delgado fourth, and Wright fifth. During the offseason of 2009, former GM Omar Minaya elected to sign Jason Bay, instead of Matt Holliday, to fill the void left by Delgado.

I preferred Holliday, but signing Bay was a move that I supported since I believed the Mets offense needed a cleanup hitter in order to compete in 2010. I am not a proponent of wasting any of the prime years of Jose Reyes and David Wright. Unfortunately, Jason Bay has been a complete disaster, and there are still potentially two, maybe three, years left on the contract. Was this a foreseeable problem? I didn’t think so, but NYBD Radio contributor Joe Delgrippo believed the signing was a bad one that could have been easily recognized from day one. Back on January 3rd, 2010 he wrote:

It is my contention that high strikeout rates while power hitters are in their 30′s are very big deals. When hitters get into their early 30′s, the hitting muscles begin to react slower, and low 90′s fastballs appear to approach mid 90′s speed. The power hitter, always conscious of the inside fastball, then begins to commit earlier than usual to catch up with formerly hittable fastballs. When hitters then begin to commit earlier, word gets out and they see an even more steady diet of CURVEBALLS AND SLIDERS as out pitches. These hitters are set up with hard stuff, and then are easily retired with junk away.

This sounds like everything we have witnessed with Bay so far this year. Delgrippo goes on to compare the Bay signing to when Richie Sexson signed with Seattle after the 2004 season. Ironically, Sexson was a top Mets target that year as well. At least Seattle received about two years of productivity on that deal, but had to release him midway through the 2008 season, even though he was making over $15 million dollars. It’s gone down as one of the worst signings in Mariners history.

Last June, Pat Andriola of Fangraphs pointed out that Bay had changed his stance (photos enclosed) since coming to New York. Essentially, Bay was slightly more open with the Red Sox, which Andriola believes is better served. This winter, Bay was messing around with his stance, and came to spring training vowing to return to an old stance from his early days in Pittsburgh; he struggled and reverted back to the current form. Clearly, there is way too much “paralysis by analysis” when it comes to Bay analyzing his own swing.

Finally, there is the concussion. Bay is free of any concussion-type symptoms, but according to our resident injury expert, Dr. Mark Filippi, “one of the lingering effects of a whiplash-concussion type injury, like the one suffered by Bay, is that the eye muscles and neck muscles lose their coupling or coordination.” Filippi went on to tell me that “if he (Bay) had a little imbalance prior to that, he’d show more in the aftermath as a means of compensation on one-sided tasks like hitting. The result is that he gets a later read on pitches because he literally has to open his stance to allow both eyes to track the ball. What ends up happening is that he turns his head to face the pitcher, and loses awareness of the outside corner in his peripheral vision. Add that to his wrist-dependent swing, and it ends up impairing his ability to generate bat control on change ups and bat speed on the fastball. Now it’s a habit.”

In the end, the Mets are the ones with the huge problem. They need power, but the man they signed to a 4 year/$66 million dollar deal can’t generate it anymore. For as much as we talk about the albatross the Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez deals are, Bay’s can be similarly obtuse if the team reduces payroll as many expect. Castillo/Perez account for about thirteen percent of the current payroll. Assuming the Mets hover around the $100 million dollar range in payroll, Bay’s $16 million dollars per year owed going forward will account for sixteen percent. Even worse, the option in 2014 will vest if he gets 600 plate appearances in 2013, or 500 in 2012 and 2013.  This could be a mistake that lingers for a while.

One last twist of the knife is the alternative to Bay that I mentioned earlier. Matt Holliday is leading the National League in hitting this year for St. Louis, and hit .312 with 28 homers and 103 RBI in 2010. He’s proved that rarefied air of Coors Field didn’t make him a great hitter. The only positive in taking Bay over Holliday is the fact the latter is owed seven years, and possibly an eighth, on the contract. Of course, considering that Jayson Werth received a seven year deal, Holliday’s contract looks like a steal. If the Mets expect to get any star players they will have to eventually give out deals of that length.

All the Mets can hope for is that Jason Bay somehow figures out what is wrong and corrects it. He said after Saturday night’s game he knows what the problem is. On Sunday, he collected two hits against the Yankees to raise his average to .234. You have to start somewhere; the Mets hope the end is something in the vicinity of the hitter Jason Bay was in Boston. Right now, the facts indicate it may never happen.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

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Tags: Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, New York Mets, Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners, St Louis Cardinals