The concern about Francisco Rodriguez shouldn’t just be the vesting option of $17.5 million dollars, but what kind of closer the Mets will have if he reaches his games finished incentive.

Going into tonight’s action at Citi Field, K-Rod has eight saves and a 1.26 ERA. Despite those solid numbers, he’s yet to retire the side in order in any of his appearances, leading to a career high WHIP of 1.81. His walks are way up, even by his standards, as he is sits at 6.28 per nine innings. Furthermore, if you dive down into his numbers there are some alarming facts.

The two things that are good indicators of a pitchers process are “missed bats” and groundballs. Rodriguez current strikeout rate is 10.67, right in line with last season, although a full strikeout less than his career. Using Texas Leaguer he is throwing his fastball for fewer strikes this year, primarily relying on his curveball and changeup. The changeup has been the pitch which he’s been most successful in striking batters out. In the past his “out pitch” has been a combination of curveball, changeup, and even a slider. According to the data, K-Rod has yet to throw a slider this year.  Last night the Dodgers hitters got around on K-Rod pretty well for three loud fly ball outs. To date, however, he has the highest groundball rate of his career (47%) and the lowest fly ball rate (34%). When hitters make contact (BABIP) they are hitting .400, well above the league average of .300. It’s a mix of positive and negative signs so perhaps there is some bad luck involved.

Let’s filter throughout the numbers and call it like it is: K-Rod doesn’t have the same arsenal as the past. He is relying on primarily one pitch, a changeup, to get hitters out. If he can’t get his fastball over for strikes I believe we may see many more cardiac ninth innings throughout the summer. Hitters will only bite at the curveball or changeup when behind in the count. Eventually they know Rodriguez will need to come in with a fastball. When he does, that’s when the sparks will fly. An inability to get his fastball over for strikes renders him a very mediocre closer.

Worst case scenario? He does a lousy job as a closer and the option vests. Unless, of course, poor performance forces the Mets to demote him at some point this season.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

View all posts by Mike Silva
Mikes website

Tags: Francisco Rodriguez, K-Rod, New York Mets