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Clutch Performance Does Exist and is Tangible



By Mike Silva ~ May 3rd, 2011. Filed under: Mike Silva.

One of the topics of debate on this site is “clutch” performance. Often, the statistically inclined cite “small sample size” to excuse the poor performance of a player in key spots. Alex Rodriguez was the center of this debate for many years as he struggled in the postseason from 2005 to 2007 going 7 for 44. I will always remember how tense A-Rod was in a pregame interview on ESPN before the ’06 ALDS against Detroit. I knew he would struggle just from the poor body language he displayed. Alas, he would finish 1 for 14 in that series as the Tigers would shock the Yankees in four games. Things changed in 2009 as the post steroid “truth shall set me free” Rodriguez carried the Yankees to their 27th World Series title. After so many failures he finally was able to perform at his normal level during the heightened pressure of the playoffs. Many wondered what had changed.

David Wright has taken the mantle from Rodriguez to be the new “poster child” for failure in the clutch. Down the stretch in 2008 the Mets lost a critical game to the Cubs when they had a runner at third and none out. Wright’s strikeout in that situation began a run of questions about his ability to get the big hit. A career .284 hitter in “late & close” situations hit .244 in 2009 and .221 in 2010. Thus far in 2011 he is 4-14 (.286) in such situations. Still, under pressure the face of the Mets franchise is often the last player fans would pick to be at the plate when a hit is needed the most. What changed with Wright when he entered the prime of his career?

So is this fact or fiction? Is clutch performance a nice narrative to help newspapers sell, and blogs generate hits with heated debate? If you asked New York Times columnist Paul Sullivan clutch performance not only exists, but can be articulated tangibly.

Sullivan joined me on Sunday night’s podcast to discuss his book “Clutch: Why Some People Excel Under Pressure and Others Don’t.” In the book he describes clutch performers as possessing more than luck, but “having the ability to do what you can do normally under immense pressure.” There are five traits of a clutch performer: focus, discipline, adaptability, the ability to be fully in the present, and being driven–not thwarted–by fear and desire. Clutch doesn’t just mean hitting the game winning home run, but it could be a hit and run single that puts runners at the corners with none out in the first inning. That event could lead to the starting pitcher unraveling and blowing the game open early. He describes clutch performers as grinders. Individuals that don’t think of the glory that they will get, but rather are just focused on that one task and one moment. Perhaps that is why some of the most unlikely individuals become heroes when the stakes are highest during a short postseason series.

On the flip side a “choker” is unable to accept responsibility and has a tendency to over think, as well as be overconfident in those key situations. We have seen many individuals fall into this category throughout the history of sports, especially in this town.

It appears that Sullivan has taken this very intangible concept and made it tangible outside of the pure numbers of hitting with runners in scoring position, and “late & close.” Perhaps, we finally have tangibly described clutch performance in a way that even the nonbelievers can understand.

To hear me talk to NY Times columnist Paul Sullivan discuss his book “Clutch” download Sunday’s show here, and fast forward to the 19 minute mark.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com
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2 Responses to Clutch Performance Does Exist and is Tangible

  1. Joe S.

    David Wright has become a “choker” in critical situations because, I believe, he is trying to do too much. Also, pitchers have adjusted to him, but he has not. Bo Ojeda has alluded to this in his SNY reporting. Watching David’s at-bats is an exercise in frustration with him spit on pitches right down the middle early in the count, and then chasing garbage down in the count. Someone needs to seriously work with him or send him packing. He’s killing the team in the middle of the lineup.

  2. birtelcom

    Baseball-reference and fangraphs each have a stat which measures “Clutch” performance with a high amount of precision. Every plate appearance is measured for its “leverage”: how important it is — given the men on base, outs, inning and score — to the probability of the player’s team winning the game. The “Clutch” stat then calculates the degree to which a player’s plate appearances tend to be more successful, compared to his personal normal level of performance, the higher the leverage situation or the lower the leverage situation.

    This “Clutch” stat at b-ref and fangraphs is a systematic and comprehensive one — it looks at the leverage and result of every plate appearance. It doesn’t just pick and choose anecdotally the PAs that happen to stick out in your mind. There appears to be essentially no correlation between how “Clutch” a player is in one season and how “Clutch” he is the next season, using this comprehensive stat. Which suggests to me that “clutch-ness”, in baseball batting at least, is not anything more than random. David Wright was a bit above average in b-ref’s Clutch stat in 2009, was a bit below average in that same stat in 2010 — to exactly the same degree he was above average in 2009, with the result that over 2009-2010 he was exactly average as a “clutch” hitter over all his plate appearances across those two seasons.

    To me this whole clutch skill thing continues to be just myth-making. Real stats suggest clutch in baseball hitting is a random matter.

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