One thing that any student of advanced metrics will tell you is not to get fooled by small sample size. Unfortunately, Spring Training is one small sample size, making it necessary to evaluate pitchers on many of the intangible principles that make scouting the toughest job in sports.

Many assume that Bartolo Colon has the lead for the final spot in the Yankees rotation. This spring he’s pitched to a 2.40 ERA and struck out 17 in 15 innings, while walking only one batter. Freddy Garcia has a 5.93 ERA, struck out 12 in 13 innings, and walked only two batters.

I am sure the Yankees are looking deeper into their performance with numbers that aren’t readily available to the general public. Two things a pitching coach recently told me are important in evaluating pitchers are “swings and missed,” and “ground ball rate.” Obviously there is a thing such as solid contact and weak contact, but overall you want your pitcher missing as many bats as possible.

Seeing Colon pitch well shouldn’t be a total surprise. He pitched decently in 2008 for Boston, and 2009 in Cleveland. Not having complete information I still wonder how a pitcher that has sit out an entire year will translate once the bell rings. Also, the last time Colon was able to start more than 20 games was in 2005. Meanwhile, Freddy Garcia had 18 quality starts last year for the White Sox. His numbers aren’t all that different from Colon this spring, making me lean towards the recent track record.

It might not matter which one wins the fifth job. With the quantity of high ceiling kids in the farm system both could be out early in the season. You would also think the Yankees would want to bring someone in who is a better bet than either. For now, they have to work with what’s in camp. They could potentially keep both, putting Colon in a long man role, but they would risk losing Sergio Mitre. Again, Mitre is nothing special, but his recent track record makes it enticing depth to keep him over Colon, who could be just another version of spring training “fool’s gold.”

Who do you think should get the last rotation spot?

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com

Mike Silva

View all posts by Mike Silva
Mikes website

Tags: Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia, New York Yankees