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Adrian Gonzalez Can Shift AL East Power



By Mike Silva ~ December 5th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva.


I like the Adrian Gonzalez deal for Boston, but I wonder how many Red Sox fans realize 2011 Gonzalez will be a downgrade from 2010 Beltre?less than a minute ago via TweetDeck

I like Dave Cameron, but this statement to me is a ridiculous, and may go down as a bigger blunder than his claim the Mariners were the sixth best organization in baseball this season.

Adrian Beltre, big numbers and all, is a role player in an offense. Adrian Gonzalez is a star, an impact player, whose been shackled by an anemic lineup and cavernous ballpark. Take a look at his home/road splits from last season:

Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
Home 79 335 283 41 79 12 0 11 42 49 59 .279 .383 .438 .821 124 .316 83 120
Away 81 357 308 46 97 21 0 20 59 44 55 .315 .402 .578 .980 178 .328 115 175
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/5/2010.

The Red Sox acquired a player that I believe might be the best first basemen this side of Albert Pujols. Yes, better than Teixeira, who the Sox failed to sign in 2008.

He will no longer be in a lineup surrounded by the likes of Chase Headley, Tony Gwynn Jr., and David Eckstein. He will be in a ballpark where his opposite field power can play pinball with the Green Monster, and Petco pop-ups to right and center will be homers. If you spread his road numbers over a full season he appears to be a 40 homerun, 130 RBI offensive player that can win a Gold Glove. If you take his Petco Park spray chart and place it in Fenway take a look at the impact:

Double Click to Enlarge

I see another 12 doubles to left field and another six homers to center and right. Is it hard to believe he can hit 50 homers and 50 doubles in Boston?

The Red Sox averaged five runs per game, but were very streaky and “feast and famine” at times. A large part of that was due to injuries to Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia. If healthy, I can see this team score in excess of 900 runs and lead the American League in offense. When you look at their strong pitching, Gonzalez could very well be at the core of the best team in baseball.

The top is going to get heavier in the American League. Chicago, Detroit, and Anaheim are all big free agent players. Texas and Minnesota will find a way to stick around. We know the Yankees and Cliff Lee will inevitably consummate their marriage. Despite all that the Sox may very well have made the best move we will see all offseason. Adrian Gonzalez could shift the balance of power just like Teixeira did two years ago when he signed with the Yankees.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com
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5 Responses to Adrian Gonzalez Can Shift AL East Power

  1. GreggB

    Mike, best analysis I’ve seen. The big increase will be in doubles. With strong hitters surrounding him, he could put up numbers similar to Manny in his prime.

  2. Stu B

    Now that the trade has fallen through, this may be a moot point.

  3. Mike Silva

    Stu

    There is still dialogue. I can’t see this deal not getting done. I think they didn’t have enough time to negotiate an extension. San Diego is motivated as well as Boston. Unless there is another team that can pony up the extension and prospects.

  4. Stu B

    You’re probably right, which is why I said “may be a moot point.”

  5. Name: Mark

    start with 7yrs 161 million 23/yr.It’s more then Texiera makes a year!Don’t worry Theo gets it done.You don’t give up that much and not sign Agon!Sign Crawford and a couple of guys for the bullpen!And we’re ready to roll!Nice job with trade Theo!Anthony Renaudo will help us forget Casey Kelly!

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