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Mets Draft Is Missed Opportunity


By Howard Megdal ~ June 9th, 2010. Filed under: Howard Megdal.

Robbie Aviles, a pitcher at Suffern (NY) High School with first-round pitching talent, had some of the worst luck a baseball player can have. Just days before the 2010 MLB draft, Aviles, widely expected to be a top pick, tore a ligament in his elbow. The injury sent him spiraling down draft boards, though the injury is par for the course with young pitchers.

The Mets had an opportunity to draft a rare New York-area pitcher with first-round upside. In a situation like this, Aviles has a scholarship waiting for him- in his case, at University of Florida. So by drafting such a player in the later rounds, but offering money well beyond that of a later pick- in parlance, going over slot- the Mets had an opportunity to build depth in their pitching prospects.

But once again, the Mets chose not to take that route, and Aviles went in the seventh round to the Cleveland Indians. In other words, New York failed to adequately leverage its monetary advantage as well as… Cleveland.

And the point isn’t that Aviles is guaranteed to be a star, any more than Matt Harvey or Mike Pelfrey or Brien Taylor were. That they aren’t guarantees is precisely the reason to make certain to add prospects, particularly pitching prospects, in bulk.

The amount of money it will ultimately take to sign Aviles, or several other over-slot pitchers, is roughly what the Mets pay for their backup infielders and outfielders. To put it in perspective, the Yankees paid $800,000 for Austin Jackson in the eighth round. They also paid for pitcher Dellin Betances, signing him for $1 million.

Jackson became a useful player, and got flipped for Curtis Granderson. Betances has struggled to stay healthy, of course.

And again, that is the point. For the amount of money the Mets just ate to release Gary Matthews Jr.- someone 29 other teams had already concluded couldn’t play anymore- going over slot later in the draft could have yielded someone whose upside far outstrips that of GMJ.

Even if that drafted player doesn’t become a star, he can be a low-cost, controlled reserve. Brett Gardner, for instance, comes to mind. And the more the Mets take chances on high-upside guys, the more players they have to both fill their own needs and deal prospects, as the Yankees did.

That’s the real takeaway from the draft: the Mets made the decision once again that it is better to be lucky than good.

Howard Megdal is the Editor-in-Chief of The Perpetual Post. He covers baseball, basketball and soccer for Capital New York, MLBTradeRumors.com, New York Baseball Digest and has written for ESPN.com as well as numerous other publications. He is the Poet Laureate for SBNation New York. His book about Jewish baseball players, “The Baseball Talmud,” is available for purchase on Amazon.com and wherever books are sold. His next book, "Taking The Field", is available for pre-order on Amazon.com and will publish in May 2011.
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6 Responses to Mets Draft Is Missed Opportunity

  1. Bobby
    June 9th, 2010 at 10:21 pm

    Aviles has a scholarship to Florida, not Richmond

  2. Jimmy
    June 9th, 2010 at 11:35 pm

    Its going to be a sad day for Mets and Yanks when a star was right in their own backyard and they both choked at pulling the trigger.

  3. Chris
    June 10th, 2010 at 8:01 am

    Well, the Yankees didn’t take him either. Nor did most other clubs till the latter round. Sounds like a lot of nitpicking and piling on the Mets. As well as speculation.

    I’m not impressed with Jackson who has a popgun bat, nor Gardner either. The Yankees farm system, if it is even better than the Mets, is only by a little.

    I don’t think the problem with the Mets is so much the slotting as it is the frequent loss of early round picks due to signing free agents combined with the failure to get picks back by offering arbitration. Theo Epstein does this very well, even if he doesn’t go over slot either.

  4. Howard Megdal
    June 10th, 2010 at 10:13 am

    Chris, Theo goes over slot. All the time. It is one of the main ways he builds depth in his system.
    My kingdom for a Mets draft built by Theo Epstein, frankly.
    And I misread the Journal News piece- thought Aviles was Florida-bound. It is Bates headed to Richmond. Thanks for the catch.

  5. Chris
    June 10th, 2010 at 10:51 am

    I thought I read the Red Sox didn’t go over slot this year on their first round pick. And the Mets do go over slot on their early draft picks. Didn’t they do it last year? And with Pelfrey? And doesn’t everyone think Harvey will be over-slot?

    Quick, can anyone name all (or just a few) of the over-slot players the Mets passed on who have turned out to be valuable major leaguers?

    Again, I think Epstein’s brilliance is not that he goes over slot so much as his ability to consistently collect early round picks through draft compensation, and then make solid picks.

    As for Gardner, Pagan is much better than him. Sure, the Mets let him go at one point, but they brought him back and he was home grown.

  6. Chris
    June 10th, 2010 at 12:44 pm

    Ok, it was reported by Alex Speier of WEEI.com that Vitek is signing for slot money. Meanwhile, Harvey will probably be signed over slot since Boras is his agent. If the picks had been reversed and Omar signed Vitek for slot, you know the media would be all over him (they still are anyway).

    I would really like to know who are all these over-slot players Omar has passed on who have become top prospects and or successful major leaguers. Anyone have any names?

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