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Wright Critics, Take Heed of History



By Howard Megdal ~ May 19th, 2010. Filed under: Howard Megdal.

There are no shortage of problems with this current Mets team. The pitching is in disarray. The power bat in left field has one home run. And the top catching prospect injured himself yesterday by tripping on a bat.

David Wright is not a problem. He is not a complementary player.

He is having yet another season that makes the case he is one of the finest third basemen in baseball history so far.

Don’t believe me? Check out his production in 2010: a 136 OPS+. That is right in line with his career OPS+- it is also 136. Yes, he is striking out more, but he is also walking more. His power production is terrific- and keep in mind, this is at an ebb period for his season. His OPS dropped 60 points in the past three days, and is just as likely to rise again in the next three days.

So for all his supposed faults, what has David Wright been thus far in his career? Well, based on OPS+, Wright is seventh since 1901 among third basemen with at least 2000 plate appearances by age 27. The six ahead of him? Complementary players Home Run Baker, Eddie Mathews, Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, George Brett and Chipper Jones. And worth noting: only Baker and Mathews are well ahead of Wright- Schmidt, Boggs, Brett and Jones are all within five points of OPS+ of Wright.

Pretty clearly, Wright’s most similar player on that list appears to be Schmidt. Keep in mind that while Wright is supposed to be finished as an elite player because he is leading the league in strikeouts in his age-27 season, Schmidt led the league in strikeouts in his age-24, age-25 and age-26 seasons. Schmidt also walked around 100 times each year, and Wright is on pace to surpass the 100-walk mark in 2010 as well. Schmidt hit 38 home runs in his age-25, age-26 and age-27 seasons; Wright is on pace for 32 right now.

In other words, people are convinced that Wright’s Armageddon is here because his 2010 line, while different from some of his past seasons (though just as productive), fits perfectly into the career of the consensus best third baseman in baseball history. So his game is becoming less like Brett’s and more like Schmidt’s. This is not a bad thing!

Well, consider me unconvinced. Sure, I wish Wright looked like he was having more fun out there- though I am certain he’d face the wrath of those who don’t think Wright should be smiling as long as the Mets are under .500. Fewer strikeouts would be nice, though if the trade is some strikeouts for some additional walks and home runs, that’s not a bad deal to make.

But in short: until David Wright stops producing, for a long period of time, like one of the best players to ever play at his position, I won’t be holding any candlelight vigils.

Howard Megdal is the Editor-in-Chief of The Perpetual Post. He covers baseball, basketball and soccer for Capital New York, MLBTradeRumors.com, New York Baseball Digest and has written for ESPN.com as well as numerous other publications. He is the Poet Laureate for SBNation New York. His book about Jewish baseball players, “The Baseball Talmud,” is available for purchase on Amazon.com and wherever books are sold. His next book, "Taking The Field", is available for pre-order on Amazon.com and will publish in May 2011.
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2 Responses to Wright Critics, Take Heed of History

  1. Patrick

    You are masking where the problems exist by trying to roll out his OPS now to career comparisons. He is unlikely to remain a .445 hitter against lefties with a .950 SLG. He has a ridiculous BaBip vs. LHP of .474.

    Against RHP his BaBip is .323 a shade under his career norm of .337. Problem is he is not putting the ball in play against RHP 43% of the time. 43%, for his career that number is 22% which includes the dramatic rise late last year and this year.

    So as his LHP numbers likely regress to the norm, unless he begins making more contact against RHP his numbers will not be in line with his career output and as that glaring K rate grows it will likely manifest itself into deeper problems.

    We are not looking at a guy who is suddenly going to hit .300 with 30 HR 100 RBI and 225 K’s, the latter will negatively impact the formers substantially over time.

  2. Shamik

    But is there a historical precedent to his sudden spike in strikeouts? And just because he’s putting up solid fantasy stats doesn’t necessarily mean its helping win ball games. With all the close 1-2 run games the Mets have lost, surely some of those 55 strikeouts or poor fielding were potential runs left off the board.

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