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Is Castillo Suffering from the Dropped Popup?


By Mike Silva ~ February 7th, 2010. Filed under: Mike Silva, New York Mets.

June 12 was probably one of the worst nights for a Mets fan in their history. Sure, this was just one loss in a season where they would experience 92 in total, but it was against the Yankees during a time where the team still held out hope they could hang around till the cavalry returns. It, of course, was the night that Luis Castillo dropped Alex Rodriguez’s towering popup, giving the Yankees an improbable win, and snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

Castillo would never live that moment down, getting mock cheers from the Citi Field crowd the remainder of the season on similar popup’s. This despite the fact he put up the best offensive season since his days in Florida, basically serving as the Mets offensive MVP in a lost season. Although it makes a world of sense to trade the 2 years/$12 million remaining on Castillo’s contract, you get the sense that Mets fan believe he will produce more like Argenis Reyes in 2010. Not only do I think they are overly negative on Castillo- something that is easy to do in Metsville these days- but they may be underrating the offensive impact he could have in a lineup with some suspects.

Castillo’s game clearly has warts. First, defensively he was prone to mental lapses and has diminished range because of injuries to his knee. I don’t believe he is as bad as fielding metrics make him out to be, but Howard has legitimate concerns about possible age regression. I don’t agree, however, that Castillo is the worst defensive second baseman in the NL East (Dan Uggla holds that distinction), much less the entire league.

Offensively Castillo is one dimensional, but can be valuable in the number two hole. He gets on base, is extremely patient, sometimes to a fault, and rarely strikes out. In short, he is the prototypical number two hitter. Even in an injury plagued 2008 he was on base 35% of the time. Remember, the Mets lineup will feature Jeff Francoeur and possibly Omir Santos, both who are not OBP machines. You could even argue that Castillo is better at leadoff, as one reader pointed out, where he can work the count and allow Jose Reyes to slide into a run producing spot.

I believe my view on Castillo is pragmatic. We are in an era that any age beggining with three immediately screams regression. I thought life just begins at 30! There is nothing wrong with expressing concerns with Luis Castillo, but I think sometimes they are exaggerated because of that faithful night at Yankee Stadium. If Castillo doesn’t drops that popup would he be so vilified? Right now he is the Mets second baseman, for better or worse, and I could think of far worse to man the position. Maybe the fans need to move on and give him a chance to fail before they run him out of town.

Mike Silva is a freelance writer and radio host since March of 2007. This website is his own personal "digest" of New York Baseball He's also hosts NYBD Radio on Blog Talk Radio and 1240 AM WGBB. Check out his sports media commentary at www.sportsmediawatchdog.com. Check out his official website, www.mikesilvamedia.com
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8 Responses to Is Castillo Suffering from the Dropped Popup?

  1. Stu Baron
    February 7th, 2010 at 9:49 am

    “That faithful night at Yankee Stadium” was maybe FAITHFUL for Yankees fans, but FATEFUL for Mets fans, LOL!

  2. royhobbs7
    February 7th, 2010 at 12:38 pm

    The Mets got the best they could have possibly imagined out of Castillo last year. He is just an injury waiting to happen for 2010 with his compromised knees.

  3. Pedro13
    February 7th, 2010 at 2:32 pm

    “We are in an era that any age beginning with three immediately screams regression. I thought life just begins at 30!”

    I thought 50 was the new 40 and 40 was the new 30 and 30 was the new 20…Oh wait, thats all except for Flushing where on a bright sunny day there are only clouds over Shea…ah…CitiField. That does rhyme. It’s all Omar’s fault!

  4. birtelcom
    February 7th, 2010 at 9:49 pm

    I would argue that Mets fans are critical for Castillo mainly because the Mets have not been successful with him in the lineup. If not for that the drop against the Yankees would have been far less important to the fans as a basis for criticizing Castillo.

    From 2007 through 2009, the Mets overall are 247-239, a .508 winning percentage.
    In games David Wright has played over those three seasons, the Mets are 238-226, a .513 winning percentage.
    In games Carlos Beltran has played over those three seasons, the Mets are 203-183,, a .526 winning percentage.
    In games Carlos Delgado has played over those three seasons, the Mets are 176-148, a .543 winning percentage.
    In games Jose Reyes has played over those three seasons, the Mets are 195-160, a .549 winning percentage.
    In games Luis Castillo has played over those three seasons, the Mets are 127-152, a .455 winning percentage.

    The Mets have played poorly with Castillo in the lineup. That may birtelcomnot be Luis’ fault, but it is more important to fans than one dropped pop-up.

  5. Mike Silva
    February 8th, 2010 at 6:59 am

    Birtel

    This is where the #’s can be very deceptive. Castillo has been here since late 2007, when the Mets collapsed, and played through the disastrous 2009. I think it would be natural their record with him in the lineup is worse, not sure if we can solely blame the Mets losing record to Castillo.

  6. birtelcom
    February 8th, 2010 at 11:16 am

    The hypothesis you suggested is that Met fans are under estimasting Castillo because of his dropped pop-up. My alternative hypothesis is that Mets fans are negatively perceiving Castillo primarily becasue the team seems to lose so much when he is playing for the team. Fro purposes of that question (Met fan perceptions, not the actual quality of Castillo’s play), I don’t see how the “numbers” I produced — nothing fancy, just wins and losses — are “decvieving”.

    In 2007, Castillo joined a team that was 59-46, a .562 winning percentage, and they were 3.5 games in first place in the NL East. After Castillo joined the team the Mets’ winning percentage dropped to .509 (29-28) the rest of the way, and they blew a playoff spot. Had they merely played at the same rate they were playing before Castillo arrived, they would have made the post-season easily.

    In 2008, Castillo was out of the lineup injured for long stretches. In games he did play, the Mets went 40-47, a .460 percentage. In games he didn’t play, the Mets were 49-26, a brilliant .653 winning percentage.

    In 2009, Castillo played a full season for the Mets for the first time, and the team was awful. All told, Luis played all but 20 games for the Mets in 2009, and in the 142 games Luis played, the Mets had a horrible .437 winning percentage. Those 20 games Luis missed? The Mets were .500.

    Note also, that the season immediately before Castillo arrived, 2006, the Mets cruised to an NL East division crown.

    Looking at all of this, how can a Met fan not look at Castillo and see Met losses in front of his or her eyes? This all may just be terrible timing, horrible luck for Luis, and not his fault. I don’t think any one paler can have sauch a consisten tly negative effect on his team’s win-loss record. But for Mets fans, the sense of Luis=losses, no Luis =winning is now backed up by year after year after year of evidence. I think it is underestimating Met fans to suggest they are down on Luis for one play in one game. What they are after Luis for is that, whether or not it is his fault, the Mets have consistently, year after year, been worse with him than without him.

  7. MetFan82
    February 8th, 2010 at 4:07 pm

    I’m sorry as a Major league baseball player that is a routine play and should have been caught.

  8. Büyü Nasıl Yapılır
    June 11th, 2010 at 8:26 am

    I’m sorry as a Major league baseball player that is a routine play and should have been caught.

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